4/6 Paddy Power...
Announcement
Collapse
Fat Jockey Patrons
Fat Jockey is a horse racing community focused on all the big races in the UK and Ireland. We don't charge users but if you have found the site useful then any support towards the running costs is appreciated.
Become a Patron!
You can also make a one-off donation here:
Become a Patron!
You can also make a one-off donation here:
See more
See less
Champion Bumper 2020
Collapse
X
-
-
Originally posted by Kevloaf View PostI wouldn't like to be your girlfriend...
Your definition of huge doesn't quite measure up
Harry Findlay once said in his book that ‘the common gambler is scared of getting involved on short price favourites because it’s hard to make big money. However, if you think there’s a 1/3 poke at 4/6, the value is huge’. I predict Ferny Hollow is punted off the boards tomorrow and wins doing handstands at somewhere between 4/9 and 1/3.
Maybe it is just me but that 5/4 is a massive price. It suggests he has less than 50% chance of winning! I think that is wrong so I’ve backed him accordingly.
If I win, great. If I lose, at least I’ve posted it on here and we can look back and laugh.
Comment
-
Originally posted by Middle_Of_March View PostHa - well played.
Harry Findlay once said in his book that ‘the common gambler is scared of getting involved on short price favourites because it’s hard to make big money. However, if you think there’s a 1/3 poke at 4/6, the value is huge’. I predict Ferny Hollow is punted off the boards tomorrow and wins doing handstands at somewhere between 4/9 and 1/3.
Maybe it is just me but that 5/4 is a massive price. It suggests he has less than 50% chance of winning! I think that is wrong so I’ve backed him accordingly.
If I win, great. If I lose, at least I’ve posted it on here and we can look back and laugh.https://scooby91horseracingtips.com/
Use code "FJ" in your sign up name for bonus content!
Comment
-
Originally posted by quevega View Posttook the words out of my mouth.
FFS, Mom, it's a bumper.
But I hope you're right.
But I genuinely think the 5/4 was a gift. The talk for this horse has been enough to have me expecting big things. We will see..
Comment
-
Originally posted by Scooby91 View PostHe could win it easily. However backing a horse that short, when you've not the slightest idea how good the opposition is, is not a long term way to success.
I would probably agree backing horses relatively blind in bumpers is not a long term strategy but as I have just said in the above post, I haven’t actually backed one in a bumper this season before this.
I would say this race and horse is an exception to my rule rather than a long-term betting strategy. That long-term strategy is having its best season profit wise to date so far so perhaps I ought to have stuck to ignoring the bumpers but I really do think Ferny Hollow is going to be very much above average. At the very least, he ought to have been marginally odds on based on the recent talk alone - let alone the fact he’s been spoken about for many months almost everywhere.
Nobody will be surprised to hear I’ve had 1.5 points on him this afternoon for the Bumper in March at 20/1. Perhaps I’ll let my inner Elegantly Tasted our and declare that Ferny Hollow is the one..Last edited by Middle_Of_March; 1 December 2019, 02:22 AM.
Comment
-
As said on a diff thread work is manic around this time of year so not watching much racing and just having little bets on the late/night racing. I also have had a bit on FH for the champ bumper after reading ET's post.Thinks it was more to do with money sat in 365 account and bored as she had Strictly on
Comment
-
From 9/11 #35
Originally posted by archie View PostThere's always the exception to prove the rule but I'd say that this was very early for Willie to be getting out his main hopes in the Champion Bumper.
Last season, Blue Sari didn't appear until 24 January and the season before it was
14/1 Tornado Flyer
27/12 Carefully Selected
13/1 Relegate
26/12 Blackbow
16/12 Colreevy
Comment
-
Originally posted by archie View PostFrom 9/11 #35
Most trainers are creatures of habit and, although it's now just early rather than very early, it would be unusual for Willie to plan this sort of campaign for his best bumper horse.
Comment
-
Originally posted by archie View PostFrom 9/11 #35
Most trainers are creatures of habit and, although it's now just early rather than very early, it would be unusual for Willie to plan this sort of campaign for his best bumper horse.
I'd say Willie's intelligent enough to get them out when he can (if fit)
Comment
Comment