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  1. #1

    LOSTINTRANSLATION - The bookmakers horse 2019/2020

    Every single year the bookmaking industry will have its media people go mad about a horse. The industry cannot stop speaking about this horse. They have already painted him up to be better than Pegasus. Barely a day goes by without somebody going completely over the top about this horse.

    Is there any substance to the hysteria this horse creates or is it The Pied Piper (the bookmaking industry) purposefully leading punters over a cliff to ensure huge profits on the gold cup long before the race has even been ran.

    Currently as low as 6/1 and no bigger than 8/1 for the gold cup.

    Last year it was Presenting Percy who they were desperately trying to convince everybody that it was Pegasus, this year its Lostintranslation.

  2. #2
    BREEDING:

    The sire FLEMENSFIRTH has already produced a gold cup winner in IMPERIAL COMMANDER. Thats a plus.

    The dam FALIKA has mothered 6 other NH horses. They have had 36 races between them producing zero winners. Thats a negative.


    The damsire HEROS HONOUR. The best NH horse he ever produced had an OR of 142 and never won a NH race.


    On breeding the only positive that can be taken is IMPERIAL COMMANDER did win a gold cup. The rest of the immediate family werent up to much.

  3. #3
    JUMPING ABILITY:

    The media cant get enough of telling you just how impressive the jumping of this horse was at Carlisle. What they fail to tell us is that Carlisle has the easiest fences in the country and although he was impressive attacking those easy fences , it was in a 4 runner race with 2 of the field having no interest in winning or even to get involved. So no pressure was put on his jumping.
    Visually it was a good display but you would be pretty worried had it not been under the circumstances.

    On his first chase start he made mistakes at Newbury, on his 2md start he also made a bad blunder. He jumped much better at Cheltenham next up which is a positive for the Gold cup though he only had 3 rivals so his jumping wasnt put under pressure. Next up at Sandown he made a mistake 2 out and crashed through the fence though stayed on his feet. He jumped well in the JLT which again shows he handles Cheltenhams fences. At Aintree he made a mistake at the last.

    So in 4 of his 6 races at Novice level he made mistakes. Novice chases are ran at a slower pace and all these races were in small fields so jumping isnt put under the same pressure as it would be in a gold cup which will be ran at pace in a big field.

    So although Carlisle was VISUALLY impressive in a race where he was never put under any pressure at all over fences that are like bigger than normal hurdles as opposed to fences so the jury remains out on if he has the ability to jump well under pressure.
    Slight positives can be taken that he didnt make mistakes in his 2 chases at Cheltenham but again, small fields.

    Has to prove he can jump under pressure in a big field open race because if he makes mistakes like he did in his novice season then he will be found out this year.

  4. #4
    FORM:

    He beat a 146 rated horse over 2m 4f at Carlisle comfortably enough. The other 2 horses werent interested. Kildisart may well win The Ladbrokes Trophy and if he does then rest assured that the media will use it to promote LOSTINTRANSLATIONS chance in the gold cup though remember that Kildisart wasnt interested in getting involved there so its irrelevant to LITs chance in March whatever Kildisart does.
    The form of this race does not even get close to justifying LITS odds of 6/1 to 8/1 in the gold cup or in fact any graded chase for that matter.

    On his chase debut at Newbury he got beat by La Bague Au Roi. He then got beat 13 lengths by the same horse next time and TALKISCHEAP also beat him in the same race.
    He then beat DEFI DU SEIL by just over a length though was recieving 3lb and so was entitled to win. The handicapper didnt put his rating up for that win.

    Defi Du Seil then put that right next time and beat him off level weights.

    He was then beaten yet again by Defi in the JLT.

    Finally he got a win of note at Aintree though Topofthegame clearly wasnt at his best and Top Ville Ben was 6 lengths back.

    So 2 comprehensive defeats to La Bague Au Roi isnt reading as great form at present. She was destroyed by all 6 rivals in the Charlie Hall chase made mistakes and was the first horse beat. This isnt formlimes that will get LIT anywhere near the gold cup winners enclosure.

    Did beat Defi when the weights were in his favour but comfortably beaten twice by Defi.


    All of this form was over 2m 4f ish trips. Gold cup horses need to stay and then stay some more as its 3m 2 1/2f on a testing track ran at pace.

    On his final start when he won at Aintree that was over 3mile 1 furlong though Aintree is a speed track and he isnt a proven stayer over the gold cup. He may stay the trip or he may not. Til he has proved that he does in a decent race the jury remains out.

    Top Ville Ben was 6 lengths behind LIT but in the Charlie Hall chase at a track that he loves he was last of 5 finishers and beaten over 30 lengths.

    So both Top Ville Ben and La Bague Au Roi have raised major question marks about the strength of LIT'S novice form already.

    STAY THE GOLD CUP TRIP:

    A complete unknown at present
    Last edited by ELEGANTLY TASTED; 11-05-2019 at 06:17 PM.

  5. #5
    RPR 1st time up in a chase of the last 10 gold cup winners in the season they won the gold cup

    AL BOUM PHOTO - 170
    NATIVE RIVER - 173
    SIZING JOHN - 162
    DON COSSACK - 178
    CONEYGREE - 149 (This run was following an injury and was his 1st run for 671 days and in a novice race)
    LORD WINDERMERE - 150
    BOBS WORTH - 174
    SYNCHRONISED - 171
    LONG RUN - 170
    IMPERIAL COMMANDER - 177


    LOSTINTRANSLATION - Was initially given an RPR of 159 though for some reason they have changed it to 164. Have they been hassled by the paymasters to do this to make his form appear better.

    Either way only SIZING JOHN recorded a lower rpr on there 1st run of their gold cup winning season (ignoring the novice gold cup winner Coneygree). Lord Windermere also produced lower and that was a major shock when he won.

    So from the initial RPR he looks an unlikely gold cup winner though not impossible. He certainly isnt a horse you would want to be taking a short price on in the gold cup.

    TACTICS:

    Usually front runs. That is extremely hard to do in a gold cup.
    Last edited by ELEGANTLY TASTED; 11-05-2019 at 07:30 PM.

  6. #6
    So taking everything into account the question must be asked why is this horse as short as 6/1 for a gold cup? Should be able to get 40/1+ on a horse with this profile.

    So why on earth is LOSTINTRANSLATION so short in the betting and why is every man and his dog crowing on about how amazing he is?


    If you want the answer then follow the money. Its a plan devised by the devilish bookmakers to make money off the sheeple who will listen to whatever they are told. There Media are doing a fantastic job, we havent seen the enemy manage to convince the public that a horse is this great since they told us Presenting Percy couldnt be beaten in the gold cup.


    Can he develop into a genuine gold cup contender as the season goes on?

    Yes its possible but at the moment he isnt even close to being considered a genuine gold cup contender and single figure odds is quite simply ridiculous on a horse who is yet to be tested in open company.


    CONCLUSION

    The most over hyped horse of the last decade. May not even turn up for the race.
    Last edited by ELEGANTLY TASTED; 11-05-2019 at 07:25 PM.

  7. #7
    The bookmakers have already took a fortune on this super hyped horse and if he doesnt win the gold cup which he most likely wont then they are already counting the money for nothing.

    https://youtu.be/JRDgihVDEko


    As is nearly always the case when they hype one this much for no obvious reason then the only winner will ultimately be the bookmaking industry.

    https://youtu.be/LK8sxngSWaU

  8. #8
    JLT horses who became gold cup winners:



    No horse who ran in the JLT has ever become a gold cup winner.

  9. #9
    MILDMAY NOVICE CHASE WINNERS:

    No Mildmay chase winner has won the following seasons gold cup though 3 horses went onto win the gold cup at a later date.

    BREGAWN won the MILDMAY in 1981 and the gold cup in 1983

    BURROUGH HILL LAD won the Mildmay in 1982 he won the gold cup in 1984.

    NATIVE RIVER won the Mildmay in 2016 and won the gold cup in 2018.

    So on past results LOSTINTRANSLATION could potentially be a big player in the 2021 gold cup but much less likely he can be a big player in the 2020 gold cup.





    In the 2014 Mildmay DON COSSACK was placed. In 2016 he won the gold cup.

    In 2018 ELEGANT ESCAPE was placed in the Mildmay. In 2020 he will win the gold cup.


    There should be no doubts about it ELEGANT ESCAPE is Tizzards best chance of winning the 2020 gold cup.
    Last edited by ELEGANTLY TASTED; 11-06-2019 at 11:20 AM.

  10. #10
    LOSTINTRANSLATION is as short as 15/8 for the prestigous betfair chase though no horse has ever won the race on their first try in open company.

    The horse whos cv includes being owned by the awful La Bague Au Roi twice, beating an out of sorts Topofthegame and the awful Top Ville Ben and a win over the comical Count Meribel is as short as 15/8 to become the first horse in history to win this race 1st time in open company.

    Words fail me. Truely unbelievable.

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