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MY OLD GOLD stands little chance here as the lowest rated horse who is much better over 3m+. All 3 career wins were over 3m+ and he is just coming here for a blow out to set her up for a Market Rasen listed mares chase on Thursday. I would imagine she will be pulled up a fair way from home or allowed to come home in her own time. I
KILDISART is a much superior horse over 3m+ however todays trip is much too sharp of a test for him. His target is the Ladbroke Trophy (a race that he will stand a decent chance in despite todays battering).
He will be in need of this first run back and connections have no desire to win today. Its just a race to blow out the cobwebs and get him spot on for his target race. He wont be given hard race at all here.
LOSTINTRANSLATION is heavy odds on favourite, he is 10/1 for the gold cup (an outrageous price at this point in time) There will be no great surprise if he wins comfortably today and Colin Tizzard has done the correct thing in running here in this stepping stone race between novice and open company for his first race of the season.
Lostintranslation is a 3 +miler so he is potentially vulnerable here over 2m 4f. He would also have preffered softer ground and he will improve for this 1st run back.
He is clear on OR and is clearly held in high regard.
We know that KILDISART and MY OLD GOLD arent even intersted in winning today and are just here for a runaround.
So even if LOSTINTRANSLATION were to win by 20 lengths today it wouldnt really tell us too much about his chances in a gold cup.
There is one horse who may just spoil the party today and his name is COUNT MEREBEL.
He is rated 15lb inferior to LOSTINTRANSLATION. He does recieve 6lb which means he still has 9lb to find with the favourite.
There is hope he can win today though as he is the 2m 4f specialist racing against 3m+ horses.
He is a Carlisle specialist and has won all 3 races here. 2 of his Carlisle wins came on this card so we know that not only does he love Carlisle he also loves this time of year. He has won first time up at Carlisle for the last 2 seasons.
Twiston Davies specifically trains his horses to be ready early, this means he can take on better horses who are being trained to peak in the spring with inferior horses. He is very successful at this method and has his runners at this time of year raring and ready to go which makes it a more level playing field when he takes on better horses at this time of year.
Count Merebel raced against KILDISART over 2m 4f at Carlisle in 2017. Count Merebel gave him 6lb and beat him comfortably. He recieves 4lb from Count Meribel today so is 10lb worse off than the last time he met The Count and lost to him at this track over hurdles.
COUNT MERIBEL is 2 from 4 over fences, this is his trip, this is his time of year and this is his course. He isnt a gold cup horse though its very possible that neither is LOSTINTRANSLATION.
The Count will be ready today and will be trying for his life.
8/1 is an exceptional price and its worth taking a chance with him as there are many reasons to believe he can win here.
The money is now coming for the Count. All of the 8/1 now gone. Between 6/1 and 9/2 and I would expect the price to continue to collapse.
The team have 9lb to make up with LOSTINTRANSLATION but we have Course form, We are racing over our correct trip, the ground suits us more than it does Lostintranslation and we also have fitness on our side as we will be 100% ready to show our best where as Lostintranslation will come on for the run.
Can we turn around that 9lb difference today? YES WE CAN
Tizzard would ultimately talk up his pet labrador as a gold cup winner so the team dont fear the line that this is his best gold cup chance. Thats in fact a horse called Elegant Escape, who strengthened his gold cup case at Wetherby yesterday.
The gold cup is all hype with LOSTINTRANSLATION til proven otherwise. Thats something that cannot be proven today no matter what the result.
LOSTINTRANSLATIONS hype is based around beating (a not at best) TOPOFTHEGAME at Aintree with 6 lengths back to TOP VILLE BEN off level weights.
Top Ville Ben was beaten 30 lengths recieving 4lb from Elegant Escape at a track that TOP VILLE BEN loves.
Anybody who tells me that LOSTINTRANSLATION is Tizzards number 1 gold cup horse is living in a fantasy world.
Horses develop and progress and it isnt impossible that come March LIT may be number 1. But at this moment in time he isnt fit to be in the same race as EE.
Didnt learn a lot there. Lostintranslation jumped superbly over the UKs easiest fences amd beat a 146 rated horse who had had 4 previous chase runs in novice company.
We will learn a lot more about him when he tackles open company for the first time.
Although the race wasnt a strong race it shows us why Colin Tizzard has won almost 50 graded chases compared to Greatrexs 4.
He correctly realised that you dont need to rush a horse and throw them in at the deep end 1st time up in open season.
As such he has a horse who can develop and progress through the season and who will have gained confidence where as Greatrex showing his inexperience at training top chasers by throwing La Bague Au Roi to the wolves in The Charlie Hall Chase and potentially destroying her confidence for the season in a race she had no realistic chance of winning.
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