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Arkle 2020

Draconienan (33/1)
Al Dancer (33/1)
Brewin'upastorm (25/1)

The 3 plays for me in this so far. The first 2 I made a case in the antepost thread where I also made the case for Thomas Darby for the JLT. On that basis and with cashout I backed Brewin'upastorm for this. I do think long term he may end up the better between the pair. Brewin often travelled through his races like the best horse in the race. I'm hoping a wind op, over fences and a drop back in trip might be the key to see him really click.

I really think Al Dancer has a lot of the characteristics i'd want for this race though agree from a trainer point of view it's very hard to look past Mullins and Henderson.

On Itchy Feet - he'll continue over hurdles, at least to begin with and target the Welsh Champion Hurdle. They'll then go from there but hasn't ruled out him going over fences too dependant on how he gets on. Realises he's probably stuck between being CH class and too high for handicaps.
 
Istabraq said:
If fit would Elizir Di Nutz not be heading here ?
Showed promise last year and has G1 winning form...
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Yeah, you'd think so wouldn't you under the Tizzard M.O?


Now he might be a wild enough price? Probably not priced up yet.

Too early to ask though
 
Kevloaf said:
Yeah, you'd think so wouldn't you under the Tizzard M.O?


Now he might be a wild enough price? Probably not priced up yet.

Too early to ask though
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20's in a place, 16's everywhere else.
would want bigger myself.
 
Nwfb89 said:
What's people's thoughts on getaway trump for this race?
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Forgot all about him. I’ve backed him either for this or for any race. Really like the horse.

Harry Derham gave an excellent argument as to why he ran poorly twice last season but he’s well thought of. I like him.
 
quevega said:
20's in a place, 16's everywhere else.
would want bigger myself.
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Yeah disappointing.

Was going for 50/1

Nothings under the radar anymore.

Wishful thinking I suppose.


In a position with a lot of horses that im going for one bad run to get a price. Tough times
 
Middle_Of_March said:
Forgot all about him. I’ve backed him either for this or for any race. Really like the horse.

Harry Derham gave an excellent argument as to why he ran poorly twice last season but he’s well thought of. I like him.
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Do you know whether he's defiantly chasing this year? He's one I would be interested if he was although shame the price isn't slightly bigger than 20s
 
Nwfb89 said:
Do you know whether he's defiantly chasing this year? He's one I would be interested if he was although shame the price isn't slightly bigger than 20s
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I think Derham said on Final Furlong that they would look to go chasing, but he also seemed to indicate that he is someone who would prefer things away from Cheltenham, which may explain why he didnt go there this year
 
Native River said:
I think Derham said on Final Furlong that they would look to go chasing, but he also seemed to indicate that he is someone who would prefer things away from Cheltenham, which may explain why he didnt go there this year
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Thanks NR, think I'll hold of for time being at the price not worth it this far out
 
If Saldier goes chasing he would be my selection. 33-1.

Hes been mentioned for the champion hurdle before but with Klassical Dream on the scene he might just switch to fences.

You could argue Willie won the Arkle last year with his fourth choice.
 
SAMCRO said:
If Saldier goes chasing he would be my selection. 33-1.

Hes been mentioned for the champion hurdle before but with Klassical Dream on the scene he might just switch to fences.

You could argue Willie won the Arkle last year with his fourth choice.
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Saldier anywhere he goes for me, have him covered multiple times in the 'any race' market :)
 
SAMCRO said:
If Saldier goes chasing he would be my selection. 33-1.

Hes been mentioned for the champion hurdle before but with Klassical Dream on the scene he might just switch to fences.

You could argue Willie won the Arkle last year with his fourth choice.
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Convinced he does, haven't any info or anything but I'm pretty sure there was a quote after debut about a fence, I know Mullins subsequently mentioned Champion Hurdle but he's my Arkle winner at this moment. Will hopefully make up for missing 66s on CPS for QMCC after backing him at 66s for Arkle last year.
 
Folski said:
Convinced he does, haven't any info or anything but I'm pretty sure there was a quote after debut about a fence, I know Mullins subsequently mentioned Champion Hurdle but he's my Arkle winner at this moment. Will hopefully make up for missing 66s on CPS for QMCC after backing him at 66s for Arkle last year.
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Flat rat winning the Arkle?

I think I did the 'stats' on that before this years Arkle - when Mengli Khan was a player?

From memory being flat bred actually had no impact at all - I'm sure it'll be in last years Arkle thread though.
 
Kevloaf said:
Flat rat winning the Arkle?

I think I did the 'stats' on that before this years Arkle - when Mengli Khan was a player?

From memory being flat bred actually had no impact at all - I'm sure it'll be in last years Arkle thread though.
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Hadn't realised that Kev, it does put me off to be honest, would make me fancy him for a soft ground Champion though.
 
Kevloaf said:
Flat rat winning the Arkle?

I think I did the 'stats' on that before this years Arkle - when Mengli Khan was a player?

From memory being flat bred actually had no impact at all - I'm sure it'll be in last years Arkle thread though.
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I've done plenty of twitter searches trying to find Joe Chambers quote, but to no success, i am almost certain he said he didn't think he'd make a chaser.

I fancied him for this last year + if it was the plan, i'd do so again. Almost certain he said something along those lines.
 
Joe should quit lurking around the place and spit it out here after he had hiis lump on betfair - or would iwe cry pump and dump ?
 
quevega said:
Of Henderson's I just thought he may be most likely for 2 mile, as all other novice hurdlers looked likely for further.
But Rathhill is a good shout/prospect for this also.

Said on another thread that the Nicholls novice chasers are of interest for me this year, Grand Sancy and Southfield Stone in particular.

Ive not had a good look at Mullins contenders yet though and his obviously have to be considered. Just which one or two is the problem. Duc des Geneivres would have been well down the list this time last year.

Unless Elliott's novices look good during the season I'm of a mind to ignore his over the speedier distances for now. Probably same for Tizzard also. But I'll be watching.
I'm inclined to ignore the Murphy horses for now also. Same reasoning and also unproven at the very top level just yet.

Nichols, Hendo & Mullins much more solid options for arkle types IMO, this far out in any case.

Mullins and Henderson won the last 8 between them ;). Including 2014 ;)
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Think i heard Harry say that Grand Sancy was going to have at least another run over hurdles, but Im not certain about that, one to read in the stable previews though, sorry I was on the second bottle of "red" at that point!!!
 
Lads definitely keep a close eye on Rathhill, not sure if this will be his race, but if I know Nicky after seeing at these things for years, he really likes this Rathhill a lot. Only thing i can think is hes showing him plenty of speed at home which makes me think Arkle rather than JLT. To be fair his two runs were two miles also (ptp 2nd was 3 miles) so that does nothing to put me off. I have had a bigger bet at 20/1 any race coz im far from certain about his trip, but taken some 33/1 also, hes my biggest bet antepost so far for this year.
 
Eldorado Allen is one I’m patiently waiting for an update on. He produced one of the best jumping performances by a novice hurdler last year but his season was curtailed due to injury. The talk was he was better than Elixir De Nutz and he was one of the best and most consistent novices on this side of the Irish Sea. Eldorado Allen looks like he has the scope for chasing so I’ll be very interested in him if that’s the direction they go.
 
The one i had initially for the on my mind was Felix Desjy, even with his trainer not being one of the best for the race. I thought his run at Punchestown was very good considering the pace he set. He didn't just drop out completely for all well beaten. I also thought he performed very well at Aintree. His run style should be fine for the race.
He wasn't a horse i liked last year over hurdles, but i could see him reach a higher level again over fences. Not 100% on 16/1 which the main drawback coupled with the trainer.

Another that might be interesting, from Rathhill's stable Billy is Precious Cargo 33/1. Not sure what exactly the excuse was at Aintree, but he was well fancied that day, he even got a mention in Hugh Taylor's blog! Nicky's quotes below would suggest he's excited for what's to come as well!
8Mar19 Sandown (16Sft, RPR 138)
Instead of bringing Thomas (Barr, owner) down we might take the horse up to him for Ayr. Precious Cargo is a fine beast and a bit of a bruiser of a horse and he's just messing around over hurdles this season, but it is exciting to think what he could do over a fence. He could be a Cheltenham horse this time next year but at the moment he still has a lot to learn - Nicky Henderson, trainer.
28Jan19 Kempton (16GS, RPR 126)
Precious Cargo was a bit keen and needs to learn to switch off a bit. He'll be going quietly and doesn't need to be going anywhere spectacular. He's a great jumper and he'll be over fences next year. He wouldn't want any further than two miles at the moment - Nicky Henderson, trainer
 
jack1092 said:
The one i had initially for the on my mind was Felix Desjy, even with his trainer not being one of the best for the race. I thought his run at Punchestown was very good considering the pace he set. He didn't just drop out completely for all well beaten. I also thought he performed very well at Aintree. His run style should be fine for the race.
He wasn't a horse i liked last year over hurdles, but i could see him reach a higher level again over fences. Not 100% on 16/1 which the main drawback coupled with the trainer.


Another that might be interesting, from Rathhill's stable Billy is Precious Cargo 33/1. Not sure what exactly the excuse was at Aintree, but he was well fancied that day, he even got a mention in Hugh Taylor's blog! Nicky's quotes below would suggest he's excited for what's to come as well!
8Mar19 Sandown (16Sft, RPR 138)
Instead of bringing Thomas (Barr, owner) down we might take the horse up to him for Ayr. Precious Cargo is a fine beast and a bit of a bruiser of a horse and he's just messing around over hurdles this season, but it is exciting to think what he could do over a fence. He could be a Cheltenham horse this time next year but at the moment he still has a lot to learn - Nicky Henderson, trainer.
28Jan19 Kempton (16GS, RPR 126)
Precious Cargo was a bit keen and needs to learn to switch off a bit. He'll be going quietly and doesn't need to be going anywhere spectacular. He's a great jumper and he'll be over fences next year. He wouldn't want any further than two miles at the moment - Nicky Henderson, trainer
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Nice one Jack. I watched back the three Hurdle runs that PRECIOUS CARGO had from January-April and Hendo’s quote about him ‘just messing about over hurdles’ and being a great jumper seemed spot on when watching his two wins. In the 2 mile Aintree Grade 1 he went off 4/1, for the third time set off at the back in his own time, in this higher grade he made up ground alongside Aramon but an awkward jump at the second last led to a lack of momentum and fading away from then on. Looks very interesting when he goes over a fence, be intrigued to see what he could do if they set off near the lead with him on his first trip over fences.
 
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