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Marsh Novices Chase 2020 (was JLT)

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  • #31
    Originally posted by charlie View Post
    I don't think anyone backing Samcro now is encouraged or confident. I took 16/1 now because we'll know how live a contender he is for this well before 2020. If he shows us the Samcro of old and lives up to his hefty reputation then i'll have a very decent price about a horse that will be very short in the market. He may struggle and flop completely but then i'l have the time to rethink my position on the race and back others.
    Yep, I get that Charlie and can see why you (and others) see his price as value.
    I just have a view that in September this race will throw up more NRs come March than most races, Samcro could come back better than ever and end up in an Arkle, RSA or maybe even a Gold Cup and you've correctly predicted a horse's ability, but still a losing slip...

    Comment


    • #32
      Originally posted by quevega View Post
      I'm of pretty much the same opinion on Getaway Trump, aside from being about to back him.

      Although the grade one you've mentioned was falsely run.
      But his form record is an odd one.

      If you had asked anyone about his best distance prior to his last 2 runs in late spring, you'd have said further than 2 miles for sure.
      But he then won two handicaps impressively on good ground over 2 miles.

      I'm inclined like others have mentioned to take the view he was well placed in average/poor handicaps. If he's rated 155 now over hurdles thats some hike for winning those two races and he should really have won the Betfair hurdle (which was also poor).

      But he was certainly impressive in the last two runs and might just have clicked.
      Enjoying a good healthy discussion on this

      As the Sandown handicap was the big novice race of the season and worth £60K, I’d say it will be decent enough form as the field would have been trying and a few laid out for that race specifically.

      Comment


      • #33
        Originally posted by quevega View Post
        Although a miler mainly, Cape cross has produced some decent middle distance flat horses, so I like the stamina influence in his breeding and have often backed some of his last batch as they progress and go up in trip.

        Getaway produces a mixed bag also.

        I wouldn't think the breeding smacks of 2 miles personally (appreciate you haven't said that either)

        Anyway a really good horse can be effective at any trip IMO.

        Getaway is indeed a versatile sire and one I seem to be drawn to a lot this season. My last piece of evidence is throw into the debate is that Nicholls was considering a Champion Hurdle campaign for this season.

        Comment


        • #34
          Originally posted by JackieMoon33 View Post
          Enjoying a good healthy discussion on this

          As the Sandown handicap was the big novice race of the season and worth £60K, I’d say it will be decent enough form as the field would have been trying and a few laid out for that race specifically.
          Yep, could see the argument for the handicap being decent, but I tend to look at the ratings of his opponents, and whilst that means he was giving 10lbs and more to the rest. It also means he was in a different grade already, the rest looked average (in the 120's and low 130's)
          Although to be fair it was a novice handicap, unlike the betfair that was similarly lacking in good ratings, but was not just for novices.

          Comment


          • #35
            Originally posted by Istabraq View Post
            Yep, I get that Charlie and can see why you (and others) see his price as value.
            I just have a view that in September this race will throw up more NRs come March than most races, Samcro could come back better than ever and end up in an Arkle, RSA or maybe even a Gold Cup and you've correctly predicted a horse's ability, but still a losing slip...
            Couple of good discussions here. My reason for backing Samcro isn’t because I think he had issues last year but because in my eyes right from the start of last season he was campaigned at the wrong distance. In his Novice Hurdle campaign he never looked like an out and out speedster but my feeling was they thought he was so good he could win at any distance. Added to that they had plenty of other options to go Novice chasing with. As it turns out he just wasn’t good enough over 2 miles in open company but get him back at the middle distance against Novices and 16s (with cash out) looks pretty attractive. Certainly wouldn’t rule him out stepping up in trip, but thought the middle distance looked spot on for him in his Novice season and wouldn’t want a penny on him for the Arkle.

            Jackie your argument for Getaway Trump for Arkle won me over some time ago especially when 20s available with 365 and just 12s with PP/BFSB

            Comment


            • #36
              Originally posted by Istabraq View Post
              Yep, I get that Charlie and can see why you (and others) see his price as value.
              I just have a view that in September this race will throw up more NRs come March than most races, Samcro could come back better than ever and end up in an Arkle, RSA or maybe even a Gold Cup and you've correctly predicted a horse's ability, but still a losing slip...
              I'd been struggling to put into words why I haven't backed Samcro and your last sentance is the exact right explanation.


              If (and it's a big'un) he does turn out to be as good as we all once hoped... the RSA or Arkle do have to be given loads more consideration. At the moment, the JLT just looks the most obvious because the Ballymore is the same trip.... but in his novice hurdle year, if we'd have known he was going for the Supreme, we'd have all backed him and probably all think he'd have won.... and no doubnt the general opinion would have been that he'd win the Albert Bartlett (maybe with a few saying he's not gonna stay etc, but he was always talked about as a future Gold Cup horse so he'd have been popular)


              For the reasons you stated, I cannot part with any cash on him now.

              His any race price (without me checking) is going to be single figures.... so I can't justify it.

              Comment


              • #37
                Originally posted by JackieMoon33 View Post
                I'd counter with the fact that he never really got a chance to run in graded races over 2m as they initially tried over further.
                Can't argue this, and wouldn't try.

                Originally posted by JackieMoon33 View Post
                Winning a valuable 2 mile handicap in a canter off top weight, giving the field 11lbs or more is not an easy feat if you're not comfortable at the distance. As it was a valuable race and plenty were lined up for it, it was not full of non-triers either.
                Valuable handicap or not, the opposition wasn't up to much and when he finally went into a tougher race (Betfair hurdle) he was readily beat only giving 1lb to the winner, another horse I don't find attractive in any way either. In fact that was one race in which he looked as though any extra distance would have helped massively and only aides my thoughts of a step up in trip at a higher level.

                Originally posted by JackieMoon33 View Post
                Breeding is also something I'd question as plenty of Getaways are 2 milers and the fact his Dams sire is Cape Cross only adds to the speed influence.

                Lastly, lots of good 2 milers originated from the PTP scene and if you read the comments from his 2 PTP races, you'd could argue he didn't stay the race distance.
                I agree regarding the breeding side of things, and to a degree the PTP 2milers, though I'd argue and say the majority go over further.

                Comment


                • #38
                  Originally posted by Kevloaf View Post
                  I'd been struggling to put into words why I haven't backed Samcro and your last sentance is the exact right explanation.


                  If (and it's a big'un) he does turn out to be as good as we all once hoped... the RSA or Arkle do have to be given loads more consideration. At the moment, the JLT just looks the most obvious because the Ballymore is the same trip.... but in his novice hurdle year, if we'd have known he was going for the Supreme, we'd have all backed him and probably all think he'd have won.... and no doubnt the general opinion would have been that he'd win the Albert Bartlett (maybe with a few saying he's not gonna stay etc, but he was always talked about as a future Gold Cup horse so he'd have been popular)


                  For the reasons you stated, I cannot part with any cash on him now.

                  His any race price (without me checking) is going to be single figures.... so I can't justify it.
                  I've gone with RSA for samcro. As he's the biggest price for that one out of the other novice chases.
                  And IMO the most likely end destination.
                  They just won't be as protective anymore with giggi horses.
                  He was bought for staying chasing.
                  He was seriously considered for the stayers hurdle last year.
                  And he clearly wants a trip.
                  But he could end up here (JLT)
                  I'd be amazed if he ends up in the arkle after last season, but his performances might merit it, you never know.
                  But I'd also expect him to start out over 2m 4f, depending on the races available when he comes right.

                  Comment


                  • #39
                    Originally posted by Kevloaf View Post
                    I cannot part with any cash on him now.
                    People approach ante post punting in different ways, personally I always look to back horses that have certain/near certain targets, others look for a price and others look to trade, no-one’s right or wrong, my approach just suits me, but I’ve had years of countless NRs and big red numbers before the previews are done, hence my approach...

                    Comment


                    • #40
                      Originally posted by ComplyOrDie View Post
                      Can't argue this, and wouldn't try.



                      Valuable handicap or not, the opposition wasn't up to much and when he finally went into a tougher race (Betfair hurdle) he was readily beat only giving 1lb to the winner, another horse I don't find attractive in any way either. In fact that was one race in which he looked as though any extra distance would have helped massively and only aides my thoughts of a step up in trip at a higher level.



                      I agree regarding the breeding side of things, and to a degree the PTP 2milers, though I'd argue and say the majority go over further.
                      COD.
                      Getaway Trump ran in 3 PTP's from what I've seen, all over 3 miles, winning the last one on heavy ground, and fading in the first two he ran in. But none of them look like they contained anything else of note.

                      Comment


                      • #41
                        Originally posted by quevega View Post
                        COD.
                        Getaway Trump ran in 3 PTP's from what I've seen, all over 3 miles, winning the last one on heavy ground, and fading in the first two he ran in. But none of them look like they contained anything else of note.
                        Yeah I know, the argument made by JackieMoon was that PTP's can produce 2milers and they can. but personally I think the majority go over further during their careers.

                        Comment


                        • #42
                          understood now

                          Comment


                          • #43
                            City Island confirmed to be going chasing.

                            I think he’s fast enough and stays well enough that this is his likeliest destination but I’d rather go any race when I eventually decide to get him on side. I like him and would be prepared to forgive that Punchestown run as he just didn’t look fresh at all. Sometimes horses just look tired and he really looked like a horse who hadn’t recovered from the Ballymore - something Brassil agrees with.

                            Anyone know what his best any race price is? Annoying oddschecker haven’t got that page available yet. 7s is best I’ve seen.

                            Comment


                            • #44
                              Just been reading that M.o.M., martin brassil say's " he's very versatile, he has won over two miles.
                              two miles five at cheltenham and i don't think three miles would be a problem for him either.
                              So could be another R.s.a candidate.

                              Comment


                              • #45
                                If you want any race hills is the place to go

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