Marsh Novices Chase 2020 (was JLT)

[JackieMoon33]

Kev,
What do you think of Mr Fisher running over 2 tomorrow.
Do you have him backed for both ?
What do you think Rosy cheeks will say after he runs.
If he loses I think I'm cashing both.

Keep the faith for the JLT

[Kevloaf]

Just looked at your list and seen no sign.
Noticed Tornado Flyer still in your arkle list though (I did warn you)

Commented on sentence one above... he is now




Yeah TF, can cash him for 80% return but just holding on to see if entered up at the DRF
Still got him in the JLT too in the same situation.


I know you warned me too, that's why I'm on Cash Back at 33/1, so cheers

[jono]

Added 1pt Allaho as per Kev NRNB. Loathe to take the 16's for the fact he was as big as 33/1 a week ago (but held off due to it being with PP) but I like horse, it'll be the race I've always wanted to see him in and the Kemboy/Reel Steal history has a small bit or promise there. I'm expecting a big improvement from Christmas (he also flopped first time out the season prior) so if he were to line up then he's not going to be 16/1. A hell of a lot to come with sorting Mullins novice chasers out and prices and other horses maybe suggest Allaho is an RSA horse but no harm NRNB

[ComplyOrDie]

Allaho done the job, but I'd have him as an RSA type myself, although backed him NRNB for this race this morning.

[AnFiieLD.]

I fancy him more of an RSA type as well. I think Mullins will keep him and Faugheen apart

[Kevloaf]

Is Allaho not a sensible bet at 16/1 NRNB for the Marsh Chase before he runs tomorrow?


He's odds on tomorrow.


Willie Mullins in 2018 ran Real Steel (went on to run in JLT)
Year before, 2017, he ran Kemboy (went on to run in JLT)


Now neither of them covered themselves in glory in their respective festivals BUT they've both proven to be good, and very very good since... so he certainly isn't opposed to sending a nice one here?



Allaho should be putting away two JP runners who are probably not all guns blazing to win anyway?




A definitely chance Allaho goes up in trip BUT 16/1 NRNB is perfectly fair isn't it?

Feasibly Faugheen or Laurina are going to come here and go off shorter but it's not out of this world that Allaho could be Willie's main shot at this race, and it's hardly like Samcro is going to scare him off?




I suppose he could lose tomorrow and still run, but I think it's a decent risk.

PP have cut to 7/1 fav for the Marsh
Only cut to 12/1 for the RSA.


Did it well today... not awful horses in behind and well clear of them.

[delsie777]

I fancy him more of an RSA type as well. I think Mullins will keep him and Faugheen apart

I was making a case to kev on the RSA thread last week that they appeared to be leaning towards the Marsh with Allaho. I think he and I both took the 33/1 that PP were offering briefly. I think that makes Faugheen the RSA horse. To be fair, scooby was saying way back that Allaho had too much speed for an RSA and that the step back would see him in a better light,

[JackieMoon33]

PP have cut to 7/1 fav for the Marsh
Only cut to 12/1 for the RSA.


Did it well today... not awful horses in behind and well clear of them.

I’d still guess at the RSA although the odds disagree

[jono]

PP have gone joint fav 7/1 after that for this race. Really nice performance, granted a weak field which he had to be beating if he had any festival hopes.

He does look the stand out choice for the RSA for them (though I think plenty could change with Faugheen still) Thought it was encouraging that Patrick recently mentioned how he could be like Black Hercules who could easily drop back.

[AnFiieLD.]

I was making a case to kev on the RSA thread last week that they appeared to be leaning towards the Marsh with Allaho. I think he and I both took the 33/1 that PP were offering briefly. I think that makes Faugheen the RSA horse. To be fair, scooby was saying way back that Allaho had too much speed for an RSA and that the step back would see him in a better light,

Looking like a good bet at this stage, I haven’t backed anything in the RSA or Marsh as yet but Scooby could be right about his speed. Then again, we know Faugheen is anything but slow so it’ll be interesting to see how Mullins plays his cards.

[JackieMoon33]

Really loving Mister Fisher gradually improving throughout the season. I’d think he’ll still come here but the Arkle could be in the mix too.

[Kevloaf]

I'd like his chances in either...

There are always horses every season that I think would do well in either.

A front running JLT/Marsh approach, or run in the RSA.


Monalee was one that would have fit that mould for me...


I'm on him RSA/Marsh and Any Race... and I'm just glad he won today more than anything

[Kevloaf]

Really loving Mister Fisher gradually improving throughout the season. I’d think he’ll still come here but the Arkle could be in the mix too.

I'm not sure beating Al Dancer and Lisp is going to be good enough though so far, and James Bowen was seemingly at pains to mention better ground is what he needs...

Might be worth keeping in mind for him...

[JackieMoon33]

I'm not sure beating Al Dancer and Lisp is going to be good enough though so far, and James Bowen was seemingly at pains to mention better ground is what he needs...

Might be worth keeping in mind for him...

He’s not the sort of horse that is going to win by far though. Neither the Arkle or Marsh are looking like Vintage renewals so he may be able to be in the mixer.

[delsie777]

I’d still guess at the RSA although the odds disagree

I'm guessing Willie will be non commital at this stage - but from the point of view of my position in this race (Marsh) I'd like to hear that he 'favours the RSA at this stage'