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Marsh Novices Chase 2020 (was JLT)

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  • #16
    I thought Allaho for this if he’s going chasing, just didn’t scream out and out staying chaser to me having watched his runs back

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    • #17
      Originally posted by FaugheenTheMachine View Post
      I thought Allaho for this if he’s going chasing, just didn’t scream out and out staying chaser to me having watched his runs back
      16s best price for this at 15/1 any race with WH

      I'd take the any race just in case he strengthens and ends up being more of a staying type.... he still placed in 2x Grade 1s as a 3 mile hurdler... so he definitely does stay... just not as well as Minella Indo did

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      • #18
        Was thinking of pulling the trigger on Brewinupasorm for this but not so sure now

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        • #19
          Get in there Kev
          Billies Any Race
          Hope it wins , for US �� lol

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          • #20
            Owners Munir & Souede have had some very good horses entered into the JLT over the past number of years and have a good record in the race but I can’t think of any decent juveniles of theirs from last season who would have a chance this season in the novice chases?
            Last edited by The King Pimm; 25 September 2019, 07:08 AM.

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            • #21
              Done a bit of looking into this race and the market today and have come up with my expected list of runners and potential dark horses.

              Of the market, I have gone through the list and discounted Klassical Dream straight away, I don't see any reason why he would not be a Champion Hurdler contender. I was on the verge of discounting Laurina but will hold fire on her, and see where she starts off.

              I have also discounted horses that I personally feel need 3m, so with that Champ, Sam Spinner & Sams Profile are out.

              I currently have Samcro in the book and am more than happy with that. Also have Birchdale, I feel this will be his race also.

              I feel Reserve Tank will end up here, and along with a couple of others, is one I am keen to get on side. I think he has enough pace through his sire to not need to step up in trip, although there is an element of stamina on the dams side, I won't be backing him for the RSA if that is where he turns up.

              I'm inclined to leave Allaho for now. I'm not really sure of his best trip, my initial thoughts were he was a stayer, and if he is then he obviously won't end up here, but I'm having second thoughts about him now.

              Melon is a frustrating one, I've backed him 'any race' only, because that is literally the case with him, Arkle or JLT, but which one is anyones guess.

              Al Dancer I'm not a fan of so happy to leave him, but a horse under the same ownership, in Angels Breath, is probably a dark horse for the race. Comes from a PTP background, had a fairly big reputation before not quite hitting the expected ground, but also did not have the best prep pretty much all season, whether you take the excuses with a pinch of salt or not I am sure there is plenty more to come from him.

              Brewin'upastorm is another that is ready to go into the portfolio, and another from the PTP scene, and I think 33/1 is more than fair. Shares some same form lines with the previously mentioned Reserve Tank & Angels Breath, and I think he needs the 2m 4f trip of the JLT and not 2m of the Arkle.

              A mention to City Island, who has a less than fashionable trainer, but deserves his place near the top of the market based on the Ballymore victory, though I'll reserve judgement on him and wait for him to reappear.

              One other dark horse who I had already mentioned in the thread elsewhere is Annamix. I know, I know, falling in to the hype trap again, but I have my reasons, the main one being his breeding, I expect the son of Martaline to improve for a fence and I think we will see a different animal over a trip further than 2m too.

              So that is me so far, just the two in the book as is, but looking to add another couple shortly.
              Last edited by ComplyOrDie; 25 September 2019, 02:56 PM.

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              • #22
                I would imagine that at least one of the Nicholls horses may end up here too.
                This trainer has got his dander up again.
                He had some of his better results with his novice hurdlers last season also, for a while at least.
                So
                Grand Sancy, Southfield Stone, Pic D'orhy and Getaway Trump are all potential players for one reason or another.
                They all have something going for them.

                I have a sneaking feeling that Vision D'honneur (VD) will be much better this year and over fences maybe (breeding not that encouraging but he looked like a chaser and travelled nicely for a long way in the supreme)
                And he didn't look like a 2 miler last year.

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                • #23
                  If Getaway Trump came here I'd be interested, but they seem keen on keeping him to 2m, which would put me off.

                  Even though I've backed Pic D'orhy I think I'd prefer them to go chasing next season but if they do go chasing I'd be wanting him in the Arkle.

                  Southfield Stone I am not convinced by. Think he's been placed well. Grand Sancy had a busy season, I wonder how much racing he will do this coming season.

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                  • #24
                    Always a tricky race for ante post, the 'best' novice chasers will head down the Arkle and RSA route and only those who don't have the speed for 2m or stamina for 3 are expected to land here.
                    Samcro clearly a contender but he hasn't put in a performance on the racecourse since his Ballymore win that offers any sort of encouragement let alone confidence and if he turns up the 2018/19 version he'll be winning nothing, though GE has said the horse had issues, we can only guess how serious they were, what impact they had on the horse last season and whether any long lasting issues exist.
                    For me this is a race to swerve until about end Feb...

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                    • #25
                      Originally posted by ComplyOrDie View Post
                      If Getaway Trump came here I'd be interested, but they seem keen on keeping him to 2m, which would put me off.

                      Even though I've backed Pic D'orhy I think I'd prefer them to go chasing next season but if they do go chasing I'd be wanting him in the Arkle.

                      Southfield Stone I am not convinced by. Think he's been placed well. Grand Sancy had a busy season, I wonder how much racing he will do this coming season.
                      Just out of interest, in case I’ve missed something, what’s the reasoning behind only being interested in Getaway Trump for the intermediate trip and not 2 miles?

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                      • #26
                        Originally posted by JackieMoon33 View Post
                        Just out of interest, in case I’ve missed something, what’s the reasoning behind only being interested in Getaway Trump for the intermediate trip and not 2 miles?
                        I just think he's not as effective over 2m. His wins over 2m are nothing to write home about, not if we are talking about Grade 1 level anyway. I can't name a horse he beat over 2m that made me take note.

                        Arguably his best performance was against Champ when Brewin'upastorm was behind him, in the only Grade 1 he competed in last season. His breeding also nods towards a trip and he also has come from the PTP sphere which only adds to the argument IMO.

                        I'm actually talking myself into backing him for this with Mondays free bet.
                        Last edited by ComplyOrDie; 25 September 2019, 02:57 PM.

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                        • #27
                          Originally posted by Istabraq View Post
                          Always a tricky race for ante post, the 'best' novice chasers will head down the Arkle and RSA route and only those who don't have the speed for 2m or stamina for 3 are expected to land here.
                          Samcro clearly a contender but he hasn't put in a performance on the racecourse since his Ballymore win that offers any sort of encouragement let alone confidence and if he turns up the 2018/19 version he'll be winning nothing, though GE has said the horse had issues, we can only guess how serious they were, what impact they had on the horse last season and whether any long lasting issues exist.
                          For me this is a race to swerve until about end Feb...
                          I don't think anyone backing Samcro now is encouraged or confident. I took 16/1 now because we'll know how live a contender he is for this well before 2020. If he shows us the Samcro of old and lives up to his hefty reputation then i'll have a very decent price about a horse that will be very short in the market. He may struggle and flop completely but then i'l have the time to rethink my position on the race and back others.

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                          • #28
                            Originally posted by ComplyOrDie View Post
                            I just think he's not as effective over 2m. His wins over 2m are nothing to write home about, not if we are talking about Grade 1 level anyway. I can't name a horse he beat over 2m that made me take note.

                            Arguably his best performance was against Champ when Brewin'upastorm was behind him, in the only Grade 1 he competed in last season. His breeding also nods towards a trip and he also has come from the PTP sphere which only adds to the argument IMO.

                            I'm actually talking myself into backing him for this with Mondays free bet.
                            I respect that view and can understand it.
                            I'd counter with the fact that he never really got a chance to run in graded races over 2m as they initially tried over further. Winning a valuable 2 mile handicap in a canter off top weight, giving the field 11lbs or more is not an easy feat if you're not comfortable at the distance. As it was a valuable race and plenty were lined up for it, it was not full of non-triers either.

                            Breeding is also something I'd question as plenty of Getaways are 2 milers and the fact his Dams sire is Cape Cross only adds to the speed influence.

                            Lastly, lots of good 2 milers originated from the PTP scene and if you read the comments from his 2 PTP races, you'd could argue he didn't stay the race distance.

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                            • #29
                              Originally posted by ComplyOrDie View Post
                              I just think he's not as effective over 2m. His wins over 2m are nothing to write home about, not if we are talking about Grade 1 level anyway. I can't name a horse he beat over 2m that made me take note.

                              Arguably his best performance was against Champ when Brewin'upastorm was behind him, in the only Grade 1 he competed in last season. His breeding also nods towards a trip and he also has come from the PTP sphere which only adds to the argument IMO.

                              I'm actually talking myself into backing him for this with Mondays free bet.
                              I'm of pretty much the same opinion on Getaway Trump, aside from being about to back him.

                              Although the grade one you've mentioned was falsely run.
                              But his form record is an odd one.

                              If you had asked anyone about his best distance prior to his last 2 runs in late spring, you'd have said further than 2 miles for sure.
                              But he then won two handicaps impressively on good ground over 2 miles.

                              I'm inclined like others have mentioned to take the view he was well placed in average/poor handicaps. If he's rated 155 now over hurdles thats some hike for winning those two races and he should really have won the Betfair hurdle (which was also poor).

                              But he was certainly impressive in the last two runs and might just have clicked.

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                              • #30
                                Originally posted by JackieMoon33 View Post
                                I respect that view and can understand it.
                                I'd counter with the fact that he never really got a chance to run in graded races over 2m as they initially tried over further. Winning a valuable 2 mile handicap in a canter off top weight, giving the field 11lbs or more is not an easy feat if you're not comfortable at the distance. As it was a valuable race and plenty were lined up for it, it was not full of non-triers either.

                                Breeding is also something I'd question as plenty of Getaways are 2 milers and the fact his Dams sire is Cape Cross only adds to the speed influence.

                                Lastly, lots of good 2 milers originated from the PTP scene and if you read the comments from his 2 PTP races, you'd could argue he didn't stay the race distance.
                                Although a miler mainly, Cape cross has produced some decent middle distance flat horses, so I like the stamina influence in his breeding and have often backed some of his last batch as they progress and go up in trip.

                                Getaway produces a mixed bag also.

                                I wouldn't think the breeding smacks of 2 miles personally (appreciate you haven't said that either)

                                Anyway a really good horse can be effective at any trip IMO.

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