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For Faugheen I can’t see connections running anywhere near 3M6F, given the additional fences and distance c/w JLT or RSA or numerous other graded races in England and Ireland in the Spring.
They will want the horse to enjoy racing not be faced with a gruelling encounter among the whip-happy brigade over a National-style trip.
Patrick on board 3m6 against far inferior horses, would he really have to be hard on him?
What's the best opposition your going to get here?
I cant have champagne classic running at all. When they wouldnt even let dounikos, roi des francs or mortal run. And imo CC represents their best RSA chance.
Unlikely to be anything into the 150s.
Last edited by Scooby91; 5 December 2019, 10:17 AM.
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I would want to see 33/1 that he is still in training come March never mind turning up at the festival and winning.
He wouldnt be a horse for antepost purposes in my view. Far too risky whether he turns up. He would be one to look at if he made the final declarations and not before. I wouldnt be interested in him anyway but if I was I would have to wait for final decs.
Any form of value will be completely destroyed come final declarations.
Faugheen beat a horse who won a low grade novice hurdle and was making his chase debut and a 7 raced maiden into 3rd. He made mistakes looked clumsy and will be 12yo at Cheltenham and is unlikely to even be targeted at this race. He would be a high alert chance of 'potential injury/setback horse' between now and March.
33/1 is an awful price. Maybe the people who fancy it may want to do a double with Linford Christie for 2020 100m olympic gold.
Faugheen beat a horse who won a low grade novice hurdle and was making his chase debut and a 7 raced maiden into 3rd. He made mistakes looked clumsy and will be 12yo at Cheltenham and is unlikely to even be targeted at this race. He would be a high alert chance of 'potential injury/setback horse' between now and March.
33/1 is an awful price. Maybe the people who fancy it may want to do a double with Linford Christie for 2020 100m olympic gold.
Ultimately Walk Away has won a low grade Thurles novice hurdle and been unplaced in 2 grade 1 hurdles when double figure odds.
He was beaten in his only chase by an 11yo who has been plagued by heart problems, muscle problems every problem going. He beat a 7 raced maiden into 3rd.
He had a rating of 140 over hurdles and didnt even improve for the switch to fences recording an rpr of 136.
Ultimately Walk Away has won a low grade Thurles novice hurdle and been unplaced in 2 grade 1 hurdles when double figure odds.
He was beaten in his only chase by an 11yo who has been plagued by heart problems, muscle problems every problem going. He beat a 7 raced maiden into 3rd.
He had a rating of 140 over hurdles and didnt even improve for the switch to fences recording an rpr of 136.
Distinctly average horse on all known evidence.
lol ok
Wins a maiden by 9ls on his rules debut, finishes 4th in a G1 on second start.
ORs are different to RPRs- that's obvious to most.
An average horse isn't rated 140 ET.......He's unexposed.
In relation to Faugheen, the seconds debut was a nice chase debut against a very high class horse. Faugheens 155-160. Daft to suggest WA should be pushing him on chase debut.
Anyway, for me, Faugheen is unlikely to come here for the reasons i've mentioned.
Last edited by jack1092; 5 December 2019, 11:14 AM.
33s is fair price for Faugheen but does come with a lot of risks attached which is why if I was backing him I'd take that rather than the 40s with skybet. However he isn't one for me his jumping would need brushing up and I don't think he'd stay 3 mile 6.
If Patrick rides him in this race hes going off fav or near fav. So whats the odds him turning up 2/1?? Some might say higher or lower but that would be my take so 33/1 looks worth a go.
If Patrick rides him in this race hes going off fav or near fav. So whats the odds him turning up 2/1?? Some might say higher or lower but that would be my take so 33/1 looks worth a go.
I wouldn't want to risk cash , but I have thrown a couple of Free Bets on with Sky Bet @ 40/1
I'm surprised anybody is questioning whether Faugheen would stay the trip. That wouldn't be a doubt for me.
Even if Faugheen has regressed he's still going to be top rated in the race (top 3 at worst) and he'll just have a huge class edge on the likely field.
It's not really like we have any frames of reference for similar things happening.... but I'm now more cautious and I lost enough in the 2016 season when Annie won the CH to get strung properly by an ante post bet on Faugheen ever again
Free bets only for now.... the perfect free bet material though as I said before...
Obviously depends how you view a free bet though...and they aren't free.
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