Ryanair 2020

[jono]

From what I've seen of Janika I'd be wary about him in a battle. Not sure it was just the weight that had him at a disadvantage last season myself

[Istabraq]

Janika has clearly been handicapped on his runs against Siruh du Luc, but he was beaten (on UK debut) at Ascot by Hells Kitchen who went up to mid 150s and was beaten an aggregate of 100l from his 3 subsequent runs.
Makes me question the ratings to both Janika and SDL and certainly, as others have mentioned, does not point to a G1 campaign...

[TCH29]

I like Janika, and he’s only 6. Big season for him. Frodon started last year’s campaign off 158 having finished 13 of 16 in the previous Ryanair. You know Janika handles Cheltenham after his two runs, he jumps well and travels smoothly. His rating of 162 may be too high, but it wouldn’t take much improvement, at an age where improvement is rife, to be right there with a shout.

[Kevloaf]

I like Janika, and he’s only 6. Big season for him. Frodon started last year’s campaign off 158 having finished 13 of 16 in the previous Ryanair. You know Janika handles Cheltenham after his two runs, he jumps well and travels smoothly. His rating of 162 may be too high, but it wouldn’t take much improvement, at an age where improvement is rife, to be right there with a shout.

Do you think having a French profile means he may not improve as much?

[Kautostar]

I think last years ryanair was an awful renewal....aso finished 2nd!! The entire field will struggle to win a race between them this season imo. Min and defi look solid this time with a plus tard and janika the potential improvers who may or may not be good enough. Cyrname is the wild card if connections decide to chance him going left handed

[Kevloaf]

I think last years ryanair was an awful renewal....aso finished 2nd!! The entire field will struggle to win a race between them this season imo. Min and defi look solid this time with a plus tard and janika the potential improvers who may or may not be good enough. Cyrname is the wild card if connections decide to chance him going left handed

Aso, in his defense, with cut in the ground, is a pretty decent animal...

The Ryanair is always poor though, and as much as people protest and think it'll be different, it'll always be the same bar the possibility of Mullins shuffling his pack (especially with the Gold Cup monkey off his back).

[Kautostar]

Master Dino would be another I’m interested in but I’ve no idea how bad his injury was and if he’ll even run this season?

[Kevloaf]

Master Dino would be another I’m interested in but I’ve no idea how bad his injury was and if he’ll even run this season?

We're they just exploring his relative experience last year aiming at the JLT?

He was a king George bet for me this year but I've cashed it.

Im not sure we'll see him on these shores again

[TCH29]

Do you think having a French profile means he may not improve as much?

Good question, Kev. Very possibly. His runs weren’t progressive on the face of it last year; he just looked to be “at his level”. But then Hendo campaigned him terribly on the face of things. If I was M&S I would be furious with him. How many places giving away a stone to the field did he have?! With better planning he could have won a big pot.

He may not improve, but 162 would put him as a 20/1 shot or shorter on race day in the Ryanair. Any improvement to say 167, and he’s going off at 5s. Most of the contenders were rated around 163-169 last year. Monalee went off 5/1 off 163.

I know that’s more of a trading mindset, but at this stage of the season i’m looking for horses who ran well last year at Cheltenham, have a likely target, but who are 25s+. I don’t think Janika can stay handicapping through March 2020 at 162 today; it would be a waste. So you’d think Ryanair the target. If so, just a small improvement and he’s a principle candidate in the market. Say he wins his first half decent grades race over 2m 5f somewhere, you’d think 25/1 would go very quickly, even if he was the fav and expected to win.

[TCH29]

Master Dino would be another I’m interested in but I’ve no idea how bad his injury was and if he’ll even run this season?

Yes, loved the look of Master Dino, but have the same fear and I don’t think the price is juicy enough given all the unknowns. Also worth pointing out he’s a 5 yr old rated 157...compared to Janika at 6yrs and 162, who we’ve all seen handle Cheltenham, and is twice the price.

[charlie]

Firmly in the Min camp here, with CPS 2nd favourite for the Champion Chase if he stays sound then surely no question Min ends up here.

Whilst his Cheltenham run this year was extremely poor (9L to Politologue), at the middle distance trip he won by 20L against the same opponent.

It looks a competitive race next year but Hills are standout price @ 12/1 (13/1 boosted). 2-3pts higher than any other bookie. Assuming the John Durkan in December is his first start again, if he performs well and early talk of his Festival target is the Ryanair then I wouldn't be surprised to see around 6-1

I agree with this but CPS has been hard to keep sound so if he gets injured it would be easy for them to drop Min into the QMCC on the basis that they may not face Altior and RR is far more likely to want to win the QMCC than the Ryanair.

[ComplyOrDie]

I agree with this but CPS has been hard to keep sound so if he gets injured it would be easy for them to drop Min into the QMCC on the basis that they may not face Altior and RR is far more likely to want to win the QMCC than the Ryanair.

Even if CPS sustains some sort of injury I struggle to see WPM making the same mistake with Min yet again, even if Altior is not present.

WPM also has Cilaos Emery & Duc Des Genievres to fill these gaps.

[charlie]

Even if CPS sustains some sort of injury I struggle to see WPM making the same mistake with Min yet again, even if Altior is not present.

WPM also has Cilaos Emery & Duc Des Genievres to fill these gaps.

Yeh you are right. I've pulled the trigger on Min. Interestingly he is still 12/1 with Hills but as short as 6/1 elsewhere. Will post up some cross sport bets on my ante post page that will include Min at 12/1

[archie]

Just to make the point that, between Down Royal in early November and Leopardstown after Christmas, in Ireland there are just 6 graded open steeplechases. 3 are at 16 or 17 furlongs and 3 are at 20 furlongs.
Willie has 10 of the top 20 rated Irish chasers so he has to be quite creative about where they start off. I wouldn't be put off if Min goes 2 miles first time up.

[Kevloaf]

Just to make the point that, between Down Royal in early November and Leopardstown after Christmas, in Ireland there are just 6 graded open steeplechases. 3 are at 16 or 17 furlongs and 3 are at 20 furlongs.
Willie has 10 of the top 20 rated Irish chasers so he has to be quite creative about where they start off. I wouldn't be put off if Min goes 2 miles first time up.

And ultimately Min can still win 2m grade 1 chases this season. He's a good horse.

He's not as good as Un De Sceaux was but he's only one notch below.

There aren't many horses that have been at UDS's level ... the are done of course, but a few of them could be considered 'greats', like Sprinter, Altior and UDS himself.

Chacun Pour Soi has to prove he's at Min's level yet ... I almost expect it, but it shouldn't be assumed just yet.