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Thread: Winners in 2019

  1. #11
    Obviously forgot the Tiger.

  2. #12
    Top Amateur jono's Avatar
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    Timely reminder before the season gets going for sure. I'd echo what RC says...

    Quote Originally Posted by Rhinestone_Cowboy View Post
    Definitely a good point to raise. One thing I will say though is the price of a couple that were put up before September that went on to win. ABP (cheers Scooby) was widely available at 33s and TOTG (cheers again Sean) at 28s price boost with Ladbrokes (sadly cost me my account) would have ensured a profitable festival for me even without any other winners.
    Without building a book and covering a host of horses it's near on impossible to pick more winners than losers at the festival antepost. It's hard enough even if you were to bet only on the week of the festival to do so. You just have to hope that getting the early bigger prices at times for just a select couple of horses will be enough to swing the profit/loss in your favour.

    Also it's very easy to get drawn towards the very top trainers - Mullins, Henderson, Elliott and once again Nicholls. They'll for now still be the best place to start. And some races favour one over others but we still had the following winners in 15 of the 28 races come from:

    Cromwell
    Skelton (x2)
    de Bromhead (x2)
    Pauling
    O'Brien (x2)
    Hobbs
    Lavelle
    Williams
    Walsh
    Rowley
    Case
    Brassil

    (some obviously are higher profile than others in there)
    come from outside that top quartet being responsible for the remaining 13. Even taking handicaps and races like the Foxhunters aside,in the grade 1 races it's a fairly even split:

    Mullins / Henderson / Elliott / Nicholls = 8
    Cromwell / Skelton / Brasil / Hobbs / Lavelle / de Bromhead = 6

  3. #13
    Champ Kevloaf's Avatar
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    For me, placing bets this early is more about beating the SP for me than nailing the winner.


    The mental switch comes much later, after the Dublin Racing Festival... where then I'll look at my 'book' for each and every race individually, check my position and adjust (cash out/lay off/back something else/increase stakes) depending on what perceived value I have and what I actually think will win each race.

    In some cases it pays to be wrong too, which is another rick in the 'back stuff now' camp.

    Big difference between backing a horse to win at Cheltenham in September and backing a horse that will be shorter the week before... a fine balancing act

  4. #14
    Quote Originally Posted by Kevloaf View Post
    For me, placing bets this early is more about beating the SP for me than nailing the winner.


    The mental switch comes much later, after the Dublin Racing Festival... where then I'll look at my 'book' for each and every race individually, check my position and adjust (cash out/lay off/back something else/increase stakes) depending on what perceived value I have and what I actually think will win each race.

    In some cases it pays to be wrong too, which is another rick in the 'back stuff now' camp.

    Big difference between backing a horse to win at Cheltenham in September and backing a horse that will be shorter the week before... a fine balancing act
    I'd concur with this.
    Personally, looking back at this does encourage me to be a little more imaginitive where possible.
    But also don't ignore the obvious if I think it is value, equally don't just back the obvious if it don't seem like value.
    And as Kev kind of says.
    Some bets we make now will be good bets that turn to bad. And some will be bad bets that turn to good.
    Just depends how the cookie crumbles.
    My aim with most of these bets is to have some runners at bigger prices on the day, so I can let loose when I have more evidence nearer the day. Much like kev.

  5. #15
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    I’m sure I flagged Espoir D’Allen on here some months before the festival. I got him ew at a big price (40, I think) a way out too.

    You’re right in principle that a lot of the winners would have been huge prices this time last year, or not even priced up(!), but the nuggets are there.

    This year, I think Eldorado Allen in the CH is a huge price currently. He’d have been 2nd fav by the Supreme IMO, had he not got injured after being taken out in his second hurdle race last year. If he’d finished top 3/4, he’d be shorter. And the Tizzards rated him well above EdN last Autumn, and he’s 16s.

    Similarly, if TD can jump well, his position in the Supreme on unfavourable ground makes him a massive price at 25s, especially given his target is confirmed.

    Similarly you could make a case Reserve Tank is a huge price at 33s for the RSA given how he finished the season, Tizzards penchant for 3m chasers, and the fact he has since said he regretted bowing to Robbie Power’s advice to put LIT in the JLT. Won’t make the same mistake twice. And I think the JLT could end up a hot race this year, mainly due to Hendo and Nicholls.

  6. #16
    Agreed with Kev; at this stage I’m not thinking definite winner I’m looking at a race and looking to see if I can get 2/3 onside that will be a lot shorter come the day

  7. #17
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    Absolutely definite that any Long-range antepost bets have to be aimed at:-

    * Horses that could shorten dramatically - in the backers opinion.
    * Horses that could run in and win the races you are backing them in.

    There is no point putting money on horses 9-12 months in advance unless you think the price could contract, and the horse has a chance in the selected race.

    I too take positions long-term with the aim of cashout if things donít work out, whilst also adding new selections to the book as the season begins to reveal more information.

    Once NRNB comes into play then a further assessment of my book takes place (cashout/new entrants etc again).

    The aim is to have as many big prices in the bag, that are well above the market chances of winning that the horses have at the start of Festival week.

    This makes me an advocate for a spread of horses in a spread of races at double-figure prices, rather than backing long range banker bets at initially shorter odds.

    That way I need less winners at bigger prices to make a profit, and on several occasions in recent years by the end of Day 1 I have been fortunate to have made a profit for the whole week. Thatís the master plan each year, I think we all would be looking for the same thing, with slight adaptions we have to suit our own personal betting strategies.

  8. #18
    Champ Kevloaf's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Hamptonfox View Post
    Absolutely definite that any Long-range antepost bets have to be aimed at:-

    * Horses that could shorten dramatically - in the backers opinion.
    * Horses that could run in and win the races you are backing them in.

    There is no point putting money on horses 9-12 months in advance unless you think the price could contract, and the horse has a chance in the selected race.

    I too take positions long-term with the aim of cashout if things don’t work out, whilst also adding new selections to the book as the season begins to reveal more information.

    Once NRNB comes into play then a further assessment of my book takes place (cashout/new entrants etc again).

    The aim is to have as many big prices in the bag, that are well above the market chances of winning that the horses have at the start of Festival week.

    This makes me an advocate for a spread of horses in a spread of races at double-figure prices, rather than backing long range banker bets at initially shorter odds.

    That way I need less winners at bigger prices to make a profit, and on several occasions in recent years by the end of Day 1 I have been fortunate to have made a profit for the whole week. That’s the master plan each year, I think we all would be looking for the same thing, with slight adaptions we have to suit our own personal betting strategies.
    Yeah, absolutely.

    The only other variation is (and I don't think anyone on here does it)... purely back to beat SP and then lay off absolutely everything to completely free-roll.

    I've considered it but a judgement call that it'd take the fun out of picking winners and turn it into a 'system' stopped me. A very good friend of mine does it (with golfers) but he has £120k sat in Betfair to arse about with.

  9. #19
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    Agree with both you. Given you have to factor in what their season performance is and the chance of injury, my estimate and approach is that I need to think the SP will be 50% or more lower than the AP price. If you believe you price will contract that much we’re the horse to make it to the race for, then take the AP. It should work out in the long run, because odds of injury or picking the wrong race across an AP book should be much lower than 1 in 2. Form is the tricky one. That’s why I tend not to do it on the Triumph at all.

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