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Originally posted by FaugheenTheMachine
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Exactly what I thought FTM! Just backed him myself at 22/1 with the Hills boost. Pleased with the mark for Burrows Saint too as he's the only other Ive backed. -
9st 13 and #70 on the list for Le Breuil
Time to start loading up
Hate to say it but you wouldn’t hate EE at 11’2Comment
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Tiger Roll now 170 that is +11 from last year
Magic of Light now 158 +7 from last year ( 2.75L to find) 4 better off vs TR
Walk in the Mill now 150 + 6 from last year (16L to find) 5 better off vs TR
Anibale Fly now 162 -2 from last year (16.5 L to find) 13 better off vs TR
One for Arthur 148 -6 from last year (25.5 L to find) 17 better off vs TR
Regal Encore 146 - 6 from last year (27.75 L to find) 17 better off vs TR
so every chance he beats the ones he ran against last year ...Comment
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Yep looks that way.Originally posted by mayo View Post
I had a decent play Anibale Fly at 40/1 after someone put up a good case in here a couple of weeks ago, of those that were beaten last year I'd say that one looks to have the best chance of reversing placings...Comment
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....Eddie O’Leary says it’s 50/50 whether Tiger Roll runs. The Betway Bowl is also under consideration.Last edited by Eggs; 11 February 2020, 04:08 PM.Comment
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The man will say anything to get attention on him/his business.Originally posted by Eggs View Post
Betfair Bowl ?
Tiger Roll is 1.01 to run in this in my book but by starting a nothing discussion he gets the attention he craves...Comment
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Originally posted by mayo View Post
In a vacuum, yes, this makes some sense. But you have to think about the mechanics of a horse - especially one of Tiger Roll's stature - carrying that much weight. Every lb above 11st gets that bit more difficult to carry, as Ruby Walsh says, and 5/1 is prohibitively short.Comment
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My eye drawn to both of those HF.Originally posted by Hurricane fly View Post
OK Corral is another who will have a nice weight.Comment
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....Jett @ 160-1 (Ladbrokes price boost) an early dart for me, Jessica Harrington suggesting it’s a definite runner. Big price for a horse that’s been contesting G1s.Last edited by Eggs; 11 February 2020, 05:05 PM.Comment
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And this would be bang on. Elegant Escape, at 28/1, has a big ole winning stat profile:Originally posted by Hurricane fly View Post
- Even if Tiger Roll drops out and EE runs off top weight of 11-10, he has a winning profile. It's comparable to that of Many Clouds (when he won as an eight-year-old): both got career-high RPRs (166 for MC and 167 for EE) over 3m2f leading up to Aintree. (Rather, Elegant Escape has notched a career-high RPR, in this current ongoing season)
- Elegant Escape is also proven over longer distances: 2018 Welsh GN win (Soft) carrying 11st9, and 6th in 2019 (Heavy) carrying 3lbs more. This is effective level terms with Potters Corner but 9lbs conceded to Yala Enki. But pedigree and quicker ground work in EE's favour.
- Genuine G/S would be preferred going, despite general versatility: highest RPRs on G/S. Most recently this was his 3rd in the Hennessy, staying on, for an OR of 160 as top weight. Form lines aren't great for that race, but the time was a tad quicker than average, and the way EE finished works in our favour.
- 100% completion in 16 chases (none over the GN fences though), going close at various courses, pointing toward versatility.
- In 13/16 chases has made the frame - two of the others were in G1s last season. Has a very light campaign this year - four races - which is in the sweet spot for GN winner stats.
- Assuming his prep will be the GN trial at Haydock, 49 days before the GN (good time) and better than the GC as a prep race, especially as he goes well when fresh: on or near-missed on all 4 occasions when returning from 50+ day breaks. A safe trip is all we need to see.
- Pedigree: dam's side is good, with Wild Risk involved - same line as Numbersixvalverde (2006), McKelvey (2007 2nd), and Many Clouds (2015).Comment
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Took 40/1 Ok Corral and 25/1 Le Breuil so far.Comment
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Poker Party (50-1 with PP nrnb) is 59th on the list and gets in with 10st 1lbs for Henry De Bromhead.
He's been an improved performer this season since he stepped up in trip to three miles in two big-field handicaps (18 and 27 runners) in Ireland.
He was held up out the back and moved smoothly through the field to win the Kerry National on yielding ground in September - showing plenty at the finish - and then tried to repeat the trick in the Paddy Power on soft ground at Leopardstown over Christmas. Gained ground at the finish and was beaten less than 5 lengths in fourth - carrying 11st 6lbs and giving between 9 and 11lbs to Roaring Bull, Fitzhenry and Plan of Attack who filled the frame.
Rachael Blackmore's been on board both times and I reckon she could keep the partnership intact at Aintree. First woman jockey to win the National? That would be a fitting reward for Rachael.
Poker Party is closely matched at the weights with Chris's Dream - another of HDB's four GN entries and no forlorn hope in the Gold Cup in my book - on a line through Fitzhenry.
I used to think eight-year-olds were a bit young for the National but that age has thrown up three of the last five winners. Certainly rate him better than a 50-1 shot.Last edited by nortonscoin200; 12 February 2020, 09:44 AM.Comment
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Elegant Escape sees my shilling, as does another horse already mentioned by you shrewdies, in KIMBERLITE CANDY (20s generally).
KC is the #1 selection on Soft ground.
- There's a big contrast with Elegant Escape (Welsh GN winner at 6 years old), insofar as Kimberlite Candy has been afforded time by connections to mature into a steeplechaser, and is doing well this year - his third over fences.
- Good first run this season in December's Becher Chase (3m2f, soft, 18 runners) over the GN fences - staying-on 2nd (2.5l) off OR137 to Walk In The Mill. This was followed by a good win in the Warwick Classic (3m5f, soft, 13 runners, carrying 11st4), by 10l. RPRs gave him 157, with the handicapper going up to 150, his GN mark.
- This is very similar to a certain One For Arthur's prep in 2017. Even the way the races were run - One For Arthur staying on in the Becher, too - is similar. Both eight years old in these iterations, and off the same marks, and heading to Aintree off an 80-odd day break.
Sure, the break length is relatively unusual, but One For Arthur’s the only GN winner for 30+ years without a post-weights prep, but he’s set the precedent, and both Durham Edition (1990, 102 days) and Mely Moss (2000, 345 days) came within 1 1/4l of winning with a longer break.
Also, Kimberlite Candy goes well fresh: won or near-missed (i.e. <4L or so) on return from three of his last four breaks of 50 days or more.
- While Soft is the ideal ground here - with two inadequate runs last season over 3m5f/more on quicker going - his Eider performance is better than suggested. A 14l fifth was after a poor start to the race on the better side of Good to Soft. While he's improving and getting stronger, cut is still more desirable.
- Two prior runs counts against him, though (One For Arthur had a prep at Kelso also): Miinnehoma (1994) the last winner with less than three, but a few have come home second since then with similarly light campaigns - Suny Bay, Mely Moss (no runs!), Clan Royal, Black Apalachi, Cappa Bleu and Pleasant Company.
- Slated to carry 10st 4lbs if Tiger Roll runs, and 10st 12lbs if not. Either way, this still makes it possibly winnable - One For Arthur carried 10st 11lbs in 2017.
- Of 15 chases, 10 have been at 3 miles or longer, and he has a 50% win or near-miss (<4L) record.
- Pedigree is absolutely fantastic for a GN winner and staying chaser:
From the family of high-class stayer Beau and half-brother to Hawkes Point (close 2nd in Welsh GN);
Sire - Flemensfirth (sire of 3 GN runners-up – King John’s Castle, The Last Samuri and Magic Of Light);
Damsire - Be My Native (dam-sire of GN runner-up Black Apalachi [and Native River come to that]);
Dam-side - both Wild Risk X Factor (Le Bavard), and Menelek is involved as third damsire (sired Rag Trade and Hallo Dandy), and Menelek mares have always been a big quality source for staying chasers.
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If it's soft then KC has a huge, huge chance.Comment
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Great post NC , enjoyed it and from a v biased Rachel fan would love to see her be the first female jock to win GNOriginally posted by nortonscoin200 View Post
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Cheers HP: At least Rachael's had a couple of sighters - she was 10th on Valseur Lido last season and was going really well on Alpha Des Obeaux when they came down at the Chair in 2018. Maybe it'll be third time lucky.Originally posted by Humble Pie View PostGreat post NC , enjoyed it and from a v biased Rachel fan would love to see her be the first female jock to win GNComment
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