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  1. #41
    Champion Fat Jockey (Moderator) Kevloaf's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Kevloaf View Post
    I quite like Le Breuil for the race, 4 mile winner with a low racing weight would suit me.

    Tough to convince me to put any stake on this race though pre March.
    and certainly not at 25/1

  2. #42
    Professional Fat Jockey Hurricane fly's Avatar
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    Ahh but once upon a time he was 40s

    Following the 4 miler route, Discorama is currently 66/1, and they are clearly looking to protect his mark of 148 now that they have gone Novice hurdling

    Actually convinced myself when writing this so 1pt e/w on Discorama @66/1
    Last edited by Hurricane fly; 15th January 2020 at 03:00 PM.

  3. #43
    Sha Tin Expert BigChaang's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by charlie View Post
    Two free bets:

    DDS Tingle Creek & Magic of Light @ 110/1
    Feeling pleased with yourself Charlie ?? , .

  4. #44
    Professional Fat Jockey jonthehammer's Avatar
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    ⭐️���� GRAND NATIONAL ENTRIES FULL A-Z ⬇️

    A TOI PHIL (FR)
    ACAPELLA BOURGEOIS (FR)
    ACTING LASS (IRE)
    ACTIVIAL (FR)
    ALPHA DES OBEAUX (FR)
    AMI DESBOIS (FR)
    ANIBALE FLY (FR)
    ANY SECOND NOW (IRE)
    AS DE MEE (FR)
    ASO (FR)
    ATLANTA ABLAZE
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    BEWARE THE BEAR (IRE)
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    BURROWS SAINT (FR)
    CABARET QUEEN
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    CLASS CONTI (FR)
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    DALKO MORIVIERE (FR)
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    DEATH DUTY (IRE)
    DEFINITLY RED (IRE)
    DELTA WORK (FR)
    DINGO DOLLAR (IRE)
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    DOUNIKOS (FR)
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    GENERAL PRINCIPLE (IRE)
    GIVE ME A COPPER (IRE)
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    LE BREUIL (FR)
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    No Rathvinden

  5. #45
    Professional Fat Jockey archie's Avatar
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    A reminder that weights are published on 11 February.

  6. #46
    Professional Fat Jockey Hurricane fly's Avatar
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    No Discorama is a blow

  7. #47
    Professional Fat Jockey (Moderator) Istabraq's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by archie View Post
    A reminder that weights are published on 11 February.
    Always found it odd that the Kelso and Haydock trials come after the weights but always a date that confirms the Spring festivals are just around the corner...

  8. #48
    Apprentice Fat Jockey (5lb claim)
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    Been a while since I've posted here after an abject failure to predict place horses other than Tiger Roll (of course!) in this one last year. But we go again.

    Weights are to be unveiled in a couple of weeks, and looking away from Tiger Roll/Magic of Light/Walk In The Mill, it'd be a good idea to have a look at ANIBALE FLY (33/1, 1/4 1-5 with b365, antepost not NRNB). This is based on a model I mentioned last year that has had the odd tweak, including pedigree, and a few other things. But... whatever. Why Anibale Fly?

    - Drop in the handicap: the only horse of the first 5 home to have a lower mark now. 16.5L 5th in the GN and two 60L+ defeats this season explain that but, for purposes of studying form for this April, in my opinion you can disregard those runs this term. Both in Grade 1 company, the first was over an inadequate 20f, the second when December's Savills Chase at Leopardstown turned into a sprint off the final bend and a near-blanket finish. AF was outpaced on ground quicker than he'd prefer (3m on yielding too sharp for him these days) but he was only 10L down before the final fence when Geraghty stopped riding so as to look after him. It's wasn't the stinker of a run that it looks on paper.

    His mark as topweight last April was OR164 but his Irish mark is now OR158 - identical to Magic Of Light’s (+7 on the GN) and Rathvinden’s (+4). It would be logical for the handicapper to mirror this parity for the GN, as the changes reflect the distances last April. Indeed, even if he compresses Tiger Roll’s mark from 172 to say 169, it would mean AF lining up broadly on level terms with all 3 of the them, compared to the last GN.

    Incidentally, at OR158, he’d likely be around 12lbs well-in with GN 4th Walk In The Mill.

    ... So yeah, he's on level terms - what makes him the pick?

    - Targeted prep: runs in the 3m Irish GC BUT will avoid the Cheltenham GC. It sounds like, as a result, prep is entirely focused on Aintree. Last year, AF was a close 2nd (all out, staying on strongly) behind Al Boum Photo in the Gold Cup, notching a new RPR high of 174 (+5 on previous, recorded in the 2018 GC, prior to his 4th place in the GN with 11.08 on heavy). 22 days later he lumped topweight of 11.10 (under a deputising Mark Walsh) to finish a very creditable 5th (16.5L) at Aintree, behind a winner who'd also run at Cheltenham (but had cruised to victory, barely off the bridle) and 3 others who'd been prepped specifically for the GN.

    He's only ten: surely he has more in the tank this time round?

    - There could be a big drop in absolute weight: this benefits AF no end. As Ruby Walsh has said, you want probably at most 11st on your back to win a GN. If every 1lb above 11 stone is exponentially harder to carry in a GN, all other things being equal, it works just as powerfully in reverse and, if Tiger Roll lines up on 4 April, even with weight compression, AF is likely to be carrying around 11 stone - possibly even a little under. That's a meaningful drop from top weight.

    So with two previous places, could it be third time lucky? It certainly could be - strong place potential at 11st, and might yet even be in it to win it outright. There are GN debutants with similar profiles but Aintree is unique so AF's experience over the fences means he's on the slip. Hopefully at a bigger price come Sunday evening but 33/1 is not to be sniffed at.

  9. #49
    Professional Fat Jockey (Moderator) Istabraq's Avatar
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    I like that Pads, excellent case made...

  10. #50
    Apprentice Fat Jockey (7lb claim)
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    With you with both of those. Backed them straight after the Becher.

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