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Jump Season Horses To Follow

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  • #31
    Originally posted by FaugheenTheMachine View Post
    Which route do people see Dlauro heading, Ballymore or Albert Bartlett?
    Supreme or Ballymore?
    My gut is Ballymore , if you look at PP price 14’s !

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    • #32
      Would be very surprised to see him over the supreme trip, I would think Ballymore.

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      • #33
        Timeform Chasers & Hurdlers published this Saturday. It's a good few years since I bought it but I'm investing this time.

        Updated ratings were published last week:

        and


        We'll all have our subjective views on the individual ratings but how on earth has Altior got a 'p'?

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        • #34
          I'd imagine the 'p' could be relative to him stepping up in trip and beating, what they would perceive, as 'better' horses.
          Last edited by ComplyOrDie; 8 October 2019, 01:25 PM.

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          • #35
            Originally posted by ComplyOrDie View Post
            I'd imagine the 'p' could be relative to him stepping up in trip and beating, what they would perceive, as 'better' horses.
            I could understand that (if not agree with it) if he hadn't been given a rating of 180 but they are saying that he performed better last season than any other jumper in training anyway. On the ratings given to other horses, he got nowhere near 180. Maybe 174 in the Tingle Creek if UDS was/is 170 but that would be about it.
            Last edited by archie; 8 October 2019, 01:37 PM.

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            • #36
              Timeform Master Rating = a measure of the form that the horse is considered to be capable of showing currently under its optimum conditions, one that is constantly under review.

              p = the horse is likely to improve

              Altior having a p next to his name seems a little odd, but they must simply think he can improve past his current master rating.
              Which is probably fair enough as he's not been really tested for a while.

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              • #37
                If the master rating is, say, 6lb higher than anything that he's achieved in over a year, how can they justify a likely improvement when he's about to turn 10?

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                • #38
                  Originally posted by archie View Post
                  If the master rating is, say, 6lb higher than anything that he's achieved in over a year, how can they justify a likely improvement when he's about to turn 10?
                  I don't agree with the p myself, by the way.
                  But can understand the view that he's been running against similar horses that were inferior to him and winning without being tested, and could easily put up a higher rated (than his master rating) if he gets truly asked a question in a well run (time wise) race.

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                  • #39
                    It's certainly true that, in the last two seasons, Altior has beaten 11 G1 winners and 7 of those were beaten on multiple occasions. That is an uncommonly small pool of talent and no matter how often he breezes past Diego Du Charmil (5 times to date) it's just impossible to rate him at 180 for the 2018/19 season and still have any idea if he can improve on that.
                    If they'd rated him 175p it wouldn't be an issue and because it's subjective I'd shrug at 180 without the 'p'. It's just the combination that is warped.

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                    • #40
                      It's all a bit subjective really isn't it.
                      Although I'd personally still have Altior as top rated chaser in training myself, until he faces a different type of test.
                      The BHA tend to have a bias towards stayers as the leading horse of the year is nearly always a three miler. That seems equally perverse, although may just reflect that in the longer division there's usually a bigger pool.

                      Which is why IMO Altior has it all to do this year stepping into the staying ranks.

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                      • #41
                        I think the thing about BHA ratings is that they are based on what has been achieved rather than what might have been achieved. Because the talent pool is bigger in staying chases (Kemboy beat 10 G1 winners in the one race at Christmas), the form is probably easier to line up.
                        It's the opposite for G1 hurdlers, possibly because there's no 2m4f championship where the intermediate horses could provide a relative measure of 2m and 3m horses.

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                        • #42
                          At Hereford on Tuesday - 3-05. Novice limited handicap Chase over 3m 1f.
                          Rockpoint , Worthy Farm, and King of the Cotswolds , three of the entries.

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                          • #43
                            Wed 2.55 at Wetherby novice chase featuring the much anticipated Beakstown plus the likes of Mr Antolini/Khage/secret reprieve plus potentially Sam Spinner could be a belter of an early novice race on a ordinary card!

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                            • #44
                              Cheers Outlaw, I’ll try and tune into that race. I’m really hoping Beakstown takes to fences well and this season is the start of something special.

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                              • #45
                                Mister Coffey could be an interesting one to follow. Very, very rare you'd see tom lacey part with that sort of money. He's normally on the other end of the scale in selling his best ones. I'd rate him a very good judge, and he must rate mister coffey very highly.
                                https://scooby91horseracingtips.com/
                                Use code "FJ" in your sign up name for bonus content!

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