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With the decision re Altior going up in trip not too far away, I thought it was worth starting the QMCC thread now as I am keen to take a position before the news breaks on what the plan is.
Yesterdays interview with Nicky - https://www.racingtv.com/news/nichol...sh-for-cyrname
He said "We all know how good Altior is at two miles and I suppose you could say if we are the best at one thing, why change it? But I personally think he’s looking for another half a mile in which case we have to start thinking about is the King George where we want to go?"
I am interpreting his language and overall ‘have a go attitude’ as they will aim to step up in trip and see how things go. Once that news is announced the complexion of the CC market will move, perhaps considerably. I expect Altior will be pushed out in price from 4/1, whilst others will shorten. Time will tell what price the bookies push Altior out to if I am right. I don’t expect anything too daft but he’s 4/1 now and with news he goes up in trip, 6/1 or even 8/1 would definitely have me parting with cash. Chacun Pour Soi has already shortened this week and I would expect that to continue if Altior goes up in trip.
My first move, assuming I am right re the King George route, will be taking the larger price on Altior because as much as he may look like he wants 2m5f, 3m might stretch him. We can’t say for sure because he hasn’t tried it yet but what we can say with a relative amount of certainty is he will tread a far more competitive path to Cheltenham over 2m5f/3m than he would do schooling round at 1/8 in the Clarence House mopping up easy grade 1 money. Ultimately, I don’t think it will quite work out for him and Nicky and PP will go back to thinking that if they can win the Champion Chase then that’s the race they should go for. If I can get Altior in singles, and then doubles and trebles with Tiger Roll and Paisley Park at 6 or 8/1 then I will be more than happy with that!
The second move is getting a few onside at decent EW prices that you would expect to shorten. The two I have come down on are both 20/1 - Le Richebourg & Cilaos Emery. I was gutted Cilaos Emery didn’t make Cheltenham (as were plenty on here) but having accounted easily for the eventual Arkle winner, I have to have him on side for this because it would just be too typical for me not to back him next year having missed out this year!
I do like Le Richebourg though and the more I look at the market and potential JP candidates for this the more I like him. I wasn’t his biggest fan this year and he was desperately unlucky not to make Cheltenham. In hindsight I think it’s fair to say he would have won what was a weak Arkle. Had that been the case what price would he be now? It would certainly be half the price and if Altior were to go elsewhere, it would be even shorter, so I feel there’s a bit of value there, particularly when you turn your attention to top the market – there are 4 ahead of him at the moment. UDS isn’t getting any younger and I expect Min will go up in trip to the Ryanair. Chacun Pour Soi is super interesting in all but price and I’m kicking myself for not taking double figures when I had the chance, which then leaves Altior who I will have accounted for if my predictions above are right. Obviously you have plenty in behind who fit the could be anything bracket and emerge from nowhere which could make lots of what i'm saying above obsolete, but based on what we know now, I am happy to make this play because I’ve struggled to get on the right side of the race in recent years with Altior being so short and in many cases, scaring away each way ante post plays i've made that have gone in the bin.
Would be keen to hear the FJF thoughts, positions you've taken, thoughts re Altior.
Yesterdays interview with Nicky - https://www.racingtv.com/news/nichol...sh-for-cyrname
He said "We all know how good Altior is at two miles and I suppose you could say if we are the best at one thing, why change it? But I personally think he’s looking for another half a mile in which case we have to start thinking about is the King George where we want to go?"
I am interpreting his language and overall ‘have a go attitude’ as they will aim to step up in trip and see how things go. Once that news is announced the complexion of the CC market will move, perhaps considerably. I expect Altior will be pushed out in price from 4/1, whilst others will shorten. Time will tell what price the bookies push Altior out to if I am right. I don’t expect anything too daft but he’s 4/1 now and with news he goes up in trip, 6/1 or even 8/1 would definitely have me parting with cash. Chacun Pour Soi has already shortened this week and I would expect that to continue if Altior goes up in trip.
My first move, assuming I am right re the King George route, will be taking the larger price on Altior because as much as he may look like he wants 2m5f, 3m might stretch him. We can’t say for sure because he hasn’t tried it yet but what we can say with a relative amount of certainty is he will tread a far more competitive path to Cheltenham over 2m5f/3m than he would do schooling round at 1/8 in the Clarence House mopping up easy grade 1 money. Ultimately, I don’t think it will quite work out for him and Nicky and PP will go back to thinking that if they can win the Champion Chase then that’s the race they should go for. If I can get Altior in singles, and then doubles and trebles with Tiger Roll and Paisley Park at 6 or 8/1 then I will be more than happy with that!
The second move is getting a few onside at decent EW prices that you would expect to shorten. The two I have come down on are both 20/1 - Le Richebourg & Cilaos Emery. I was gutted Cilaos Emery didn’t make Cheltenham (as were plenty on here) but having accounted easily for the eventual Arkle winner, I have to have him on side for this because it would just be too typical for me not to back him next year having missed out this year!
I do like Le Richebourg though and the more I look at the market and potential JP candidates for this the more I like him. I wasn’t his biggest fan this year and he was desperately unlucky not to make Cheltenham. In hindsight I think it’s fair to say he would have won what was a weak Arkle. Had that been the case what price would he be now? It would certainly be half the price and if Altior were to go elsewhere, it would be even shorter, so I feel there’s a bit of value there, particularly when you turn your attention to top the market – there are 4 ahead of him at the moment. UDS isn’t getting any younger and I expect Min will go up in trip to the Ryanair. Chacun Pour Soi is super interesting in all but price and I’m kicking myself for not taking double figures when I had the chance, which then leaves Altior who I will have accounted for if my predictions above are right. Obviously you have plenty in behind who fit the could be anything bracket and emerge from nowhere which could make lots of what i'm saying above obsolete, but based on what we know now, I am happy to make this play because I’ve struggled to get on the right side of the race in recent years with Altior being so short and in many cases, scaring away each way ante post plays i've made that have gone in the bin.
Would be keen to hear the FJF thoughts, positions you've taken, thoughts re Altior.
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