Six year olds going on seven

[Folski]

The last few years, as I become more and more obsessed with NH racing, probably been a fan since Denman won the Gold Cup, I have noticed how much 6 year olds can tend to progress for their 7 year old season. This is probably more so over fences than hurdles but a few examples the last two years to show I am not going mad. Other notables Sizing John, Dodging Bullets, Native River, Uxizandre, Cue Card.

* indicates won a G1 in open company

2018-19
Al Boum Photo 159 to 175 *
Kemboy 157 to 177 *
Clan Des Obeau 157 to 170 *
Cyrname 150 to 176 *
Frodon 158 to 169 *

2017-18
Road To Respect 157 to 165 *
Bristol De Mai 159 to 165 *
Politologue 154 to 168 *
Waiting Patiently 150 to 170 *
Balko Des Flos 146 to 169 *

Some 6 year olds going on 7 rated at least 150.
Delta Work 163
Defi Du Seuil 162
Janika 162
Duc Des Genieveres 162
Le Richebourg 160
Real Steel 158
Dynamite Dollars 157
Burrows Saint 156
Tout Est Permis 156
Darasson 156
Saint Calvados 155
Us And Them 152
Vinndication 151
Siruh Du Lac 150
Duca De Thai 150

Should also be noted A Plus Tard & Master Dino 161 & 151 are only 5.

[Istabraq]

In general chasers aged 6 are in their novice season so should improve with experience, though always worth checking on breeding as French horses are jumping brush hurdles at 2 over there and fences at 3, GB/Irish bred horses are unlikely to see an obstacle until well after their third birthday.
I think the stats will also show that French horses regress earlier as a result, so at 8/9 when you would expect a chaser to be peaking they are more likely to have already peaked in previous seasons.
Long Run is the example that springs to mind, won a Gold Cup at 6, the second of his King Georges at 7 and only won one further race is his career afterwards....

[Folski]

In general chasers aged 6 are in their novice season so should improve with experience, though always worth checking on breeding as French horses are jumping brush hurdles at 2 over there and fences at 3, GB/Irish bred horses are unlikely to see an obstacle until well after their third birthday.
I think the stats will also show that French horses regress earlier as a result, so at 8/9 when you would expect a chaser to be peaking they are more likely to have already peaked in previous seasons.
Long Run is the example that springs to mind, won a Gold Cup at 6, the second of his King Georges at 7 and only won one further race is his career afterwards....

True they are usually in their novice season however a lot of the examples turn their novice form around. Kemboy was nowhere in the JLT last year. Al Boum looked well beaten in RSA when falling. Frodon who wasn’t a novice went from well beaten in the Ryanair to winning it. Clan Des Obeaux another example of a horse turning form upside down and inside out.

[jono]

I remember you raising this a couple of times already Folski. Good work. I think it's certainly something to consider - particularly if weighing up a 6>7yo going into open company against a 7>8yo perhaps.
Would be good to see a list of the other 6 year old horses from the last few seasons. We can then see how much of a percentage these examples make up. I presume it's a fairly small pool of horses (6 years olds).

Of that list of candidates this time around who do you think is most likely to follow suit in your eyes?

[Folski]

I remember you raising this a couple of times already Folski. Good work. I think it's certainly something to consider - particularly if weighing up a 6>7yo going into open company against a 7>8yo perhaps.
Would be good to see a list of the other 6 year old horses from the last few seasons. We can then see how much of a percentage these examples make up. I presume it's a fairly small pool of horses (6 years olds).

Of that list of candidates this time around who do you think is most likely to follow suit in your eyes?

I am all over Delta Work for the gold cup, I thought he travelled too well in the RSA last year.

Of the others Le Richebourg had done nothing wrong DDS should go close in Ryanair and I think DDG is coming in under the radar for a lot of races I would imagine he’ll step up in trip.

[BigChaang]

I am all over Delta Work for the gold cup, I thought he travelled too well in the RSA last year.

Of the others Le Richebourg had done nothing wrong DDS should go close in Ryanair and I think DDG is coming in under the radar for a lot of races I would imagine he’ll step up in trip.

A yankee in the making there Folski !

[Saxon Warrior]

Loving this, Folski.

If Delta Work improves 16-20 points from 6 to 7 like Kemboy and Al Boum Photo, then on Gold Cup day 2020 he would win the Gold Cup.

If Defi Du Seuil and Janika improve 11-26 points from 6 to 7 like Frodon, Cyrname and Clan Des Obeaux, then on Festival Thursday 2020 they will fight out the finish of the Ryanair.

If Le Richebourg and DdG improve around 15 points they are bang there in the Champion Chase 2020 giving Altior something new (and better?) to think about, one of them could be the winner.

[Folski]

2018 2019 Difference Age Bred
Footpad 166 158 -8 7 Fr
Frodon 160 169 9 7 Fr
Al Boum Photo 159 175 16 7 Fr
Sceau Royal 159 164 5 7 Fr
Kemboy 157 177 20 7 Fr
Clan Des Obeaux 157 170 13 7 Fr
Diego Du Charmil 157 152 -5 7 Fr
Elegant Escape 151 160 9 7 Ire
Cyrname 150 176 26 7 Fr
Coo Star Sivola 150 143 -7 7 Fr
Cadmium 147 164 17 7 Fr
Any Second Now 145 154 9 7 Ire
Mister Whitaker 145 153 8 7 Ire
Ramses De Teillee 141 153 12 7 Fr
Cobra De Mai 138 152 14 7 Fr

Average increase of 9.2lb, Cyrname up 26lb.

[Faugheen_Machine]

Is the main reason for the increase that the majority of those listed are spending their first year in open company?

The handicapper typically rates novice form below open company and that could partly explain the apparent big improvement.

[Folski]

Is the main reason for the increase that the majority of those listed are spending their first year in open company?

The handicapper typically rates novice form below open company and that could partly explain the apparent big improvement.

True but you do have a Gold Cup winner there, King George, Punchestown Gold Cup, Ryanair, Aintree Bowl, Ascot Chase, Topham, Welch National 1 2, Kim Muir.

The 2 who had been in open company won a Ryanair and King George and turned their form upside down and inside out.

[Quevega]

Is the main reason for the increase that the majority of those listed are spending their first year in open company?

The handicapper typically rates novice form below open company and that could partly explain the apparent big improvement.

I'd say so.
It's hard to improve a rating if you're simply beating your peers. The improvement from novice season to second season chaser is normal. Which is why the second season chasers should usually be first port of call for a punter to assess (especially for the Spring festivals).
What would be more interesting is the comparison of improvement from novice to open company - age related.
Is the improvement better when they go from 6-7 or 7-8 ??
I know some think that the younger ones with less miles on the clock have more potential for improvement.
This makes a lot of sense logically, although I think it's probably less scientific than this and more specific to the individual animals natural improvement/maturing/experience etc.

[Folski]

Non 6 to 7 year olds that were novices previous season

Presenting Percy 165 169 4 8 GB
Terrefort 158 157 -1 6 Fr
Saint Calvados 158 155 -3 6 Fr
Monalee 157 164 7 8 Ire
The Storyteller 155 158 3 8 Ire
Ballyoptic 155 152 -3 9 Ire
Rathvinden 154 160 6 11 Ire
Black Corton 153 159 6 8 Fr
Shattered Love 153 153 0 8 Ire
Invitation Only 152 161 9 8 Ire
Dounikos 151 153 2 8 Fr
Monbeg Notorious 151 148 -3 8 Ire
Mall Dini 150 145 -5 9 Ire
Jury Duty 149 156 7 8 Ire
Ozzie The Oscar 148 156 8 8 Ire
Snow Falcon 148 156 8 9 Ire
Jett 148 153 5 8 Ire
Ms Parfois 146 153 7 8 Ire
Hell’s Kitchen 145 158 13 8 GB
Peregrine Run 145 150 5 9 Ire
Born Survivor 138 152 14 8 Ire
Bun Doran 138 150 12 8 Ire

Average increase 4.6, highest Born Survivor 14lb. No horse over 146 improved over 10lb.

[Kevloaf]

If the handicapper is making an error, that does benefit us in the main if this theory is correct.... as the prices will factor in Official Ratings? Certainly before tested?


Although not sure in the Gold Cup they've given much regard to it this year... the other divisions though perhaps.

Duc Des Genivres would be one that would jump out and make me look incredibly silly, as I don't think he'd usually place in an average Arkle.

Then again, the placed horses in QMCC's are somewhat hit and miss!

[archie]

One thing that I'd never thought of until recently is the impact of tweaks in a training regime.

We're mainly talking about young (for chasing) horses who are learning the game but some horses are less straightforward than others and even top trainers might not get things right in terms of judging a horse's condition and readiness from its work.

Cadmium started the season on 147 and reached the dizzy heights of 152 for the Topham after 9 races so to suddenly jump 10lb in that run is noteworthy. It appears that all the time Willie was making small adjustments to diet and exercise and taking a different view on his fitness and readiness to race based on physical signs. All this came to fruition in the Topham. The good news is that, if they truly have found the key to him, there might be more to come.