Cheltenham Gold Cup 2020

[Kautostar]

That's all logical and well argued. I agree that the same price for the Ladbrokes is the better bet but I'd also say that my argument about not having any bet until they come back into training is a better strategy because there's no reason for either price to change until September.

There’s no reason for any price to change from now until September unless a market leader suffers an injury but we all know they will. Santini and annamix were 2 last year that halved in price over the summer without leaving their box

[archie]

https://www.britishhorseracing.com/press_releases/kemboy-tops-2018-19-anglo-irish-jumps-classification/

[Faugheen_Machine]

https://www.britishhorseracing.com/p...lassification/

What do you make of that Archie?

I suppose ratings are irrelevant in that Kemboy isn't going to run in a handicap anytime soon but it must be great to say you have the top rated NH horse in training.

[archie]

The ratings will make no difference to what happens next season but it's great to see him finally getting the credit and recognition that he deserves.

[archie]

Worth putting this classification list up here (and as a starting point for the Ryanair and QM threads) as it's broken down by distance.

https://www.britishhorseracing.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/2018-19-Anglo-Irish-Steeplechase.pdf

[Kevloaf]

The Grand National skews quite a few ratings doesn't it! They should have a marathon category.



Altior has 3 horses rated level or superior to him. Must be an absolute golden era we're in.




Without me having to look it up archie, what was Kemboy rated after his JLT run (or at the end of last season) - how much improvement have we had? Certainly more than I'd have ever thought or predicted! Would have been a racing certainty in the Ladbroke!

[archie]

From memory, he was 145 before and after the JLT, won a Punchestown handicap off 147 and ended the season on 157.

[Saxon Warrior]

It looks a fascinating renewal in 2020, with a number of top staying novices with realistic chances to progress to Gold Cup level, as well as Kemboy topping the season off in style.

I reviewed a lot of videos today of the stating Novice races, partly to sort out my thought on the Ladbrokes Trophy (Hennessy) to see if there were one or two that may have a Handicap mark to give them a chance at Newbury.

I always prefer to back a first-timer in the Gold Cup, it’s a very soldi stat, and one that is tried and tested, regardless of the quality and prices of the returning Gold Cup runners from the previous season.

I think the novices going into the their second-season look strong anyway, and I thought I had a decent position with

DELTA WORK 1 point @ 25/1
DELTA WORK 1 point @ 20/1
TOPOFTHEGAME 1 point @ 15/1


What became apparent when prepping for the Ladbroke Trophy and reviewing the 2m4f novice races as well as the 3 milers, was how well LOSTINTRANSLATION ran at Cheltenham in the season, what a big strong type he is,a nd how much he improved going up to 3 miles to win the Aintree Grade 1.

He is right up their in my Gold Cup thoughts now, and I have added today
LOSTINTRANSLATION 1 point @ 16/1 to win the Gold Cup.

That’s a really interesting book of the three horses, and really looking forward to seeing them out in their opening runs in October/November.

[BigChaang]

I backed Lost in Translation for the Gold cup , straight after the Festival h.fox, i remember Colin Tizzard.
saying after he ran at cheltenham " he's a gold cup horse " , but i think Robbie Power .
thought the shorter trip was the go . Really looking like a good race at the moment .
Half a dozen of them , all looking like real contenders.

[Saxon Warrior]

Yes BC, plenty of room for various opinions in the Gold Cup market.

[archie]

Second season chasers are certainly worth following because they are self-evidently more likely to improve. However, every year we get evidence that they don't improve at anything like the same rate and quite often the best second season chasers are not the best novices. For all the positive noises made at the start of the season, the likes of Presenting Percy, Monalee, Shattered Love and Terrefort really went nowhere while others progressed dramatically.

[Hurricane fly]

I think that is where the 6yr old vs 7yr old is a key thing to look at when assessing the novices

Delta Work is 6 and needs to find 2 lengths + the step up to open company
Topofthegame is 7 as is Santini who both need to step up to open company

I would fancy the jump from 6->7 is beigher than 7->8 and therefore would have Delta Work as the number one danger from the novices

[archie]

I think that is where the 6yr old vs 7yr old is a key thing to look at when assessing the novices

Delta Work is 6 and needs to find 2 lengths + the step up to open company
Topofthegame is 7 as is Santini who both need to step up to open company

I would fancy the jump from 6->7 is beigher than 7->8 and therefore would have Delta Work as the number one danger from the novices

It's an angle but supporters of Santini will point to the fact that Delta Work has had twice as many lifetime runs as him with Topofthegame and Lostintranslation somewhere in between.
The fact is that they all improve at different rates and times so you're not necessarily guaranteed progress using either measure. Certainly, in Kemboy and Al Boum Photo, the 6yos were the big improvers last season but they fitted in the middle range of previous runs at the start of the season.
For what it's worth, and I may have said this before , for me Santini and Topofthegame are thorough stayers who would need proper soft or heavy to figure. I don't think that they have the basic speed that you would need to win a Gold Cup even in last season's going and speed isn't something that comes with age/maturity. Delta Work and Lostintranslation have both demonstrated a decent turn of foot and I see them as the main dangers at this stage but I wouldn't touch anything until it's back on the track because it's just guesswork as it stands.

[Welshman]

I thought PP was a good thing for GC all season last year and even when he clearly had a troubled training issue after Christmas I still believed. Have to say i wouldnt touch it with a barge pole until he runs another decent race.As for who will be champ next year?

[Kevloaf]

I thought PP was a good thing for GC all season last year and even when he clearly had a troubled training issue after Christmas I still believed. Have to say i wouldnt touch it with a barge pole until he runs another decent race.As for who will be champ next year?

So you we're with him despite there being rumours about him not being right....

....but against him after it's a fact that he wasn't right?



I'd be more forgiving when there are actual excuses...than worrying about rumours before an event.



Either way, I can see why you'd wait to see Presenting Percy have a run. Could be waiting a while though

I hope he goes come back to (at very least his novice chase) form - as I don't think we got any answers from his campaign last year.

I'm not writing him off yet though.