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Originally posted by Old Vic
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Anything you wanna tell us Archie?
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I certainly think Kemboy is a class horse and deserves the plaudits but feel 3m 2f at Chelts will find him out and would look at this years RSA for the source of the winner. I mentioned on the antepost thread that Delta Work is the one (IMO) to take from the race and feel slightly vindicated after we saw what he did at Punchestown. Topofthegame is a tricky one but his runs leading up to the Festival didn’t inspire me and the Aintree run left me flat (not pocket talk as I was on Lostintranslation) and I think the RSA just happened to be ‘his day’.
Speaking of Lostintranslation, it will be interesting to see what he does early doors and I might be tempted to go in with him. Nicky ‘The Needle’ thinks a lot of Santini so he could be worthy of a second look but to my mind, Delta Work is my idea of the winner at this stage.
Like many I was taken in by Presenting Percy but that bubble burst and I couldn’t back him with free money at the moment until I’ve seen him perform a couple of times.Comment
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For Santini to finish where he did in the RSA with his prep is a big tick in my book.Deff one to have some cash on imoComment
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I've said this before... but do you not think that has already been taken in to account with his Gold Cup price?Originally posted by somer1 View Post
I don't think 12/1 is good value.
You can get the Gold Cup winner at 8/1 and he's got nothing to prove?Comment
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Harsh to say that's the bubble burst isn't it? Got injured during the race?Originally posted by filthyewaypunter View Post
The disappointing thing was we didn't get a conslusive answer on him - it was the same with Kemboy.... I bet you wish you'd had some 'free money' on Kemboy at the prices he was BEFORE he ran again?Comment
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Kev.What price do you see Santini going off for the gold cup if he makes it there?Comment
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Need more info in the hypothetical question.Originally posted by somer1 View Post
Do all the others horses make it?
Does he win the Ladbroke Trophy?
What is his prep like?
...and also, the fact he might not get there does at least need acknowledging... it isn't a straight forward as just saying "what would his SP be"
He might go off shorter than 12/1, but he's not good value now at 12/1 based on his form.
I have backed him at 12/1 for the Ladbroke Trophy - if you are desperate to back him?
I just think he's under priced on what he's actually achieved.... that doesn't mean he can't win but he isn't a good value bet in MayLast edited by Kevloaf; 8 May 2019, 06:48 PM.Comment
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But we are looking for horses we think will be a lower price in March and which race they go so in my book its a good priceComment
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Unless Santini wins one of the G1s before Cheltenham he's likely to start a double figure price if all the others turn up.Comment
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Not everybody is looking to do that...Originally posted by somer1 View Post
Some people are looking for the winner.
If you're going to make a book for the race, or arb, back multiple... my advice is that Santini at 12/1 is not worth backing at this stage...
He might go off shorter, but he's done nothing to warrent it yet on the track for me, so I think the VALUE in his price isn't there.... the bookies have factored in the potential that you're seeing (and we've all seen)
Currently, I'd say he's the most over rated horse for the race next year....
If he was 25/1 I'd 100% be backing him...Comment
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It’s probably already been mentioned but Santini is currently 50/1 with B365 to win the Ladbrokes Trophy & the Gold CupComment
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I can see why the PP comment might have come across harsh but the way he was handled last year was abysmal and that alone is enough to make me look elsewhere. I really hope I’m proved wrong because I bought into the promise he had shown in his RSA. Class doesn’t disappear overnight but I’m going to need convincing.Originally posted by Kevloaf View Post
No Kev, I did look after Kemboy’s Aintree run but I still wasn’t interested. I’m guessing you’ve got him covered at double/triple the price he is now and I’m delighted for you
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No, all my bets are posted though if you want a laugh.Originally posted by filthyewaypunter View PostI can see why the PP comment might have come across harsh but the way he was handled last year was abysmal and that alone is enough to make me look elsewhere. I really hope I’m proved wrong because I bought into the promise he had shown in his RSA. Class doesn’t disappear overnight but I’m going to need convincing.
No Kev, I did look after Kemboy’s Aintree run but I still wasn’t interested. I’m guessing you’ve got him covered at double/triple the price he is now and I’m delighted for youComment
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Twice that price with Sky KP, now that is value IMO.Originally posted by The King Pimm View PostComment
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I would never laugh at anyone’s selections Kev, that was a ‘cool’ emoji apparently. Fair enough it could have been viewed sarcastically but I didn’t think something that small could bruise your ego.
I was offering my opinion on the GC because that’s what this thread is for right? For me PP’s halo has slipped but it won’t take much to put it straight if campaigned a little more loosely. I’m just not willing to back him at this moment.Comment
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