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Cheltenham Gold Cup 2020

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  • #61
    The Gold Cup next year is between the 4 best staying novices of 2019 for me. Record for 2nd year chasers backs that up. I believe there’s still more to come from Topofthegame in the future. He won the RSA this year despite still obviously having more potential in the tank. Another summer filling out at grass & maturing will stand him in good stead. Delta Work & LIT would be my big worries more so Delta Work as I feel he has more scope for improvement & he got the worst luck in running of the 3 RSA hopefuls in March

    Comment


    • #62
      Originally posted by archie View Post
      It's an angle but supporters of Santini will point to the fact that Delta Work has had twice as many lifetime runs as him with Topofthegame and Lostintranslation somewhere in between.
      The fact is that they all improve at different rates and times so you're not necessarily guaranteed progress using either measure. Certainly, in Kemboy and Al Boum Photo, the 6yos were the big improvers last season but they fitted in the middle range of previous runs at the start of the season.
      For what it's worth, and I may have said this before , for me Santini and Topofthegame are thorough stayers who would need proper soft or heavy to figure. I don't think that they have the basic speed that you would need to win a Gold Cup even in last season's going and speed isn't something that comes with age/maturity. Delta Work and Lostintranslation have both demonstrated a decent turn of foot and I see them as the main dangers at this stage but I wouldn't touch anything until it's back on the track because it's just guesswork as it stands.
      Of the four horses in question I think this is bang on. I would prefer Delta and Lost for the Gold cup, but probably only on Goodish Ground. The other two would be more interesting if it was softer than good. That's at this point in time though. And there is a lot of time for stuff and opinions to change.

      Comment


      • #63
        I've Delta Work, LIT and TOTG covered and as far as I can see, it's job done unless something irresistible pops up in the season

        Comment


        • #64
          Originally posted by robith View Post
          I've Delta Work, LIT and TOTG covered and as far as I can see, it's job done unless something irresistible pops up in the season
          That's what Kemboy has been saying on his holiday postcards.

          Comment


          • #65
            Here’s one for ya lads. If the four were all the same price for the Gold Cup.. who would you want to back? Order them.

            For me:
            1) Delta Work
            2) Topofthegame
            3) Lostintranslation
            4) Santini

            Comment


            • #66
              Originally posted by SeanRock View Post
              The Gold Cup next year is between the 4 best staying novices of 2019 for me. Record for 2nd year chasers backs that up.
              Just to muddy the waters slightly, in the last 10 Gold Cups exactly half were won by second season chasers. Coneygree was a novice and Imperial Commander, Synchronised, Don Cossack and Native River were third season.

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              • #67
                I still can’t decide if Santini is just a slow old boat or did very well to get as close as he did after the prep

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                • #68
                  Originally posted by Middle_Of_March View Post
                  Here’s one for ya lads. If the four were all the same price for the Gold Cup.. who would you want to back? Order them.

                  For me:
                  1) Delta Work
                  2) Topofthegame
                  3) Lostintranslation
                  4) Santini
                  Tough one but I'd go with:

                  Santini
                  TOTG
                  Lostintranslation
                  Delta Work

                  Hoping someone adds OK Corral to the GC market on the exchanges before the season starts. I haven't given up hope with him.

                  Comment


                  • #69
                    Here’s one for ya lads. If the four were all the same price for the Gold Cup.. who would you want to back? Order them.
                    For my take on it it would be
                    1 Santini
                    2 Delta Work
                    3 TOTG
                    4 Lit

                    Comment


                    • #70
                      Originally posted by archie View Post
                      That's what Kemboy has been saying on his holiday postcards.
                      Excellent.



                      If all four of those novices were the same price I'd have Topofthegame as the number 1 - as he won the RSA and that gives him the best most relevant form IMO.

                      LIT would be my fourth choice and I'd probaby back Delta Work over Santini if they were the same price as I think you need compensating for Santini's actually record.


                      Delta Work and Santini should both be bigger than TOTG on form, and depending on how you view the Aintree form (which when talking about the Gold Cup next year, would make it less important), then Lostintranslation should be the biggest price of the lot...



                      Lots more than just form to go on though, and the 'form' isn't far enough distances to rule horses out.... technically a different track, different day, they'll have different preps, be different sizes and most importantly, different prices.




                      Great to mull over even this far out.... but they need to step up a level to achieve what Kemboy's done so far, and the Boum
                      Last edited by Kevloaf; 9 July 2019, 08:18 PM.

                      Comment


                      • #71
                        Originally posted by archie View Post
                        Just to muddy the waters slightly, in the last 10 Gold Cups exactly half were won by second season chasers. Coneygree was a novice and Imperial Commander, Synchronised, Don Cossack and Native River were third season.
                        Don’t get me wrong Archie, fully respect your lad but for my money he’s more suited to an Aintree/Punchestown style track than the Cheltenham test. Unfortunately we didn’t get a chance to see him prove that right or wrong this year.

                        I also think last seasons novice chasers were well above the norm so the 2nd season chaser start rings home harder.
                        Last edited by SeanRock; 9 July 2019, 09:39 PM.

                        Comment


                        • #72
                          Originally posted by SeanRock View Post
                          Don’t get me wrong Archie, fully respect your lad but for my money he’s more suited to an Aintree/Punchestown style track than the Cheltenham test. Unfortunately we didn’t get a chance to see him prove that right or wrong this year.

                          I also think last seasons novice chasers were well above the norm so the 2nd season chaser start rings home harder.
                          As you can probably tell, I really don't get this "doesn't act at Cheltenham" thing. I've said it before but 5th in a Neptune and 4th in a JLT is decent form and in line with his public form at that time. I'm also puzzled about the apparent linking of Aintree and Punchestown as similar courses with one being flat and left-handed and the other undulating and right-handed. It's tempting to say that the two combined add up to Cheltenham.

                          He's won on all going from good to heavy. Left-handed and right-handed courses. Flat or undulating. Sharp and/or galloping. He races keenly but wasn't fazed by the attentions of Definitly Red at Punchestown and then outstayed Al Boum Photo up the hill.

                          He's a pro. He may or may not be good enough next March and he's certainly no value in the betting but the Cheltenham factor just isn't in the equation.

                          As for the novice form, this time last year everyone was talking about how impressive Presenting Percy had been in the RSA and Shattered Love in the JLT. Until they come out and prove it in open company I wouldn't be touching any of them with a barge-pole.

                          Comment


                          • #73
                            Originally posted by archie View Post
                            That's what Kemboy has been saying on his holiday postcards.
                            Love it archie!

                            Comment


                            • #74
                              Originally posted by archie View Post
                              As you can probably tell, I really don't get this "doesn't act at Cheltenham" thing. I've said it before but 5th in a Neptune and 4th in a JLT is decent form and in line with his public form at that time. I'm also puzzled about the apparent linking of Aintree and Punchestown as similar courses with one being flat and left-handed and the other undulating and right-handed. It's tempting to say that the two combined add up to Cheltenham.

                              He's won on all going from good to heavy. Left-handed and right-handed courses. Flat or undulating. Sharp and/or galloping. He races keenly but wasn't fazed by the attentions of Definitly Red at Punchestown and then outstayed Al Boum Photo up the hill.

                              He's a pro. He may or may not be good enough next March and he's certainly no value in the betting but the Cheltenham factor just isn't in the equation.

                              As for the novice form, this time last year everyone was talking about how impressive Presenting Percy had been in the RSA and Shattered Love in the JLT. Until they come out and prove it in open company I wouldn't be touching any of them with a barge-pole.
                              I’m not doubting Kemboy’s obvious talent or potential for a second Archie but Aintree/Punchestown will never be the stamina test 3m2f around Cheltenham is. His record around the track definitely isn’t off putting but it’s not a big positive either.

                              I’d personally prefer to have a contender with course form of 1/2s in the book than 4/5s. No doubt he’s on an upward curve but it’s my opinion that last seasons best bunch of staying novice chasers have the potential to be even better & for my money are more suited to the race conditions.

                              With regards to Presenting Percy I recall yourself even suggesting he wasn’t exactly unexposed when winning the RSA. The same doesn’t apply to this years bunch for me.
                              Last edited by SeanRock; 12 July 2019, 07:01 PM.

                              Comment


                              • #75
                                This debate around Santini has been excellent , thoroughly discussed. Here,s my take on this big slow boat.

                                He isnt slow , you only have to see his record at Kempton and Aintree to see that.

                                What intrigues me most his is Cheltenham record overall , I am not convinced he likes the undulations.

                                He excels at newbury ,2/2 which bodes well for his early season target The Ladbrooke (Im on at 12s)

                                Three reasons why I think he has his best days in front of him
                                1 - Such a big frame of a horse he still filling it.
                                2 - His preparation for last year wasn't great , not his fault and I can see him improving massively this term on what he has done already.
                                3 - Mentally he wasnt battle hardened from so few runs , expect that to change with experience gained from last season.

                                Can he win a Gold Cup - Possibly ,but that niggling doubt about the hill remain. Hope his prep runs include some hill of note for me to change my mind. I like him a lot.

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