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Cheltenham Gold Cup 2020

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  • The Santini/TOTG/Lostintranslation conundrum reminds me of the Gerrard/Lampard/Scholes debate (obviously Scholes). Before really thinking about it I would have had them in order of preference TOTG/Santini/Lostintranslation. LBAR has form lines that run through the lot, but she wouldn't be on my mind given the trainers preference to skip Cheltenham in favour of targets in Ireland and at Aintree. He was rewarded for that last season so see no reason they would change it.

    TOTG is the easiest to access at this stage IMO. He ran a blinder behind LBAR, beating Santini before winning the RSA. Lostintranslation got the better of a tired horse at Aintree and TOTG backers (of which I was one) knew their fate fairly early on.

    Lostintranslation is more tricky to access. Under any other trainer he would have surely gone RSA. Facing LBAR twice, both at Newbury, he lost by a length over 2m6f and then clearly got done for toe over 2m3f when he lost by 13 lengths. IMO that alone should have seen them favour stepping up un trip and I think it was his stamina that saw him beat DDS in the Dipper Novices' Chase, and we know that is solid form based on what then happened at Cheltenham. As I mention above, it’s hard to gauge what TOTG he beat at Aintree but he looked completely in his comfort zone over 3m and did it all easily. We know he has a clear target and is uncomplicated in comparison to his trainer!

    Santini is one I find both easy and very difficult to access. It’s impossible to know the impact of his interrupted prep on the outcome of the RSA. I know NH has said he ‘is very lazy at home, but fences wake him up’, but one thing I have noticed watching his races back is he is a really lazy bugger. That doesn’t put me off so much at tracks like Newbury over 3m (and I really fancy him for the Hennessey), but it does for somewhere like Cheltenham where that extra 2f up that hill will find out lazy horses, and I would have serious reservations Santini will ever want a proper fight. That can be countered with how he responds to Nico, and he does. Nico has to niggle him along far earlier than his market rivals, which he did against LBAR at Kempton and actually stayed on strongly. The RSA was similar. When heading out on his second circuit, Nico gave him a big slap down the neck and towards the end of the race he was far more animated than DR on DW or HC on TOTG, but he battled on well. If he shows the same signs of laziness in his races then he is the ideal candidate for a bet in play, but its too early to think about things like that.

    Based on what we know now my preference has shifted to Lostintranslation/TOTG/Santini for the Gold Cup, and Santini/Lostintranslation/TOTG for the Hennessey.

    Comment


    • Originally posted by ComplyOrDie View Post
      Strange that you feel Santini's win record is 'very poor' when you consider the other horses at the head of the betting coming out of novice company over this side of the Irish Sea:

      In the way you seem to feel people will 'bend over backwards to forgive' Santini I think there will be equal measures of people willing not to as well, and view that festival run as potentially true form, which is opinion, but what is not opinion are the numbers above. He knows how to win and his win record is far from 'very poor'.
      A lot of effort into a post to prove me wrong.

      Noted for the rest of the season.



      To re-word what I'd said, I feel his price is one of a horse with a better win record that he has. And I should re-word that to, people gave him the way too much credit for being beaten at Christmas and again at Cheltenham.



      In March I backed Santini for the Ladbroke Trophy, and the rest of my post was pretty clear. In fact, you've taken two words out of context and gone to town.

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      • My take on the Gold Cup market is that nothing is of any real value and hasn't been since last March but very few of us keep our powder dry for 51 weeks and small investments as the Summer/Autumn weeks go by without feeling those bets are huge value is par for the course I guess.
        My feeling is that the potential line up for 2020 is the strongest in many many years so I can't hit big singles, but I have the top 8 in the betting in various multis with Santini (40/1 and 12/1) being my only single but it wouldn't be a huge surprise if he was beaten 4l and out the places such is the strength of opposition....

        Comment


        • Originally posted by Kevloaf View Post
          A lot of effort into a post to prove me wrong.

          Noted for the rest of the season.



          To re-word what I'd said, I feel his price is one of a horse with a better win record that he has. And I should re-word that to, people gave him the way too much credit for being beaten at Christmas and again at Cheltenham.



          In March I backed Santini for the Ladbroke Trophy, and the rest of my post was pretty clear. In fact, you've taken two words out of context and gone to town.
          I didn't set out to prove you wrong, but when I read what you had put it didn't sound right, therefore it led me to a little bit of research, hardly time consuming stuff, just to see if your thoughts were correct, which they weren't.

          Apologies for touching a nerve though

          I do stand by the findings though and if he is a wrong price then so are the others, not sure if you feel the same way about them or not?

          Please do feel free to pick me up on things I get wrong (there will be plenty), as incorrect information is no good to anyone, as long as its not tit for tat, as I'm too old for that.
          Last edited by ComplyOrDie; 11 September 2019, 05:30 PM.

          Comment


          • Haha, normally I'd fact check before posting - it was in my head his win record was bad... but is it incorrect if I think it's very poor? 33%? Relative to the others it's similar as you've pointed out, but I didn't say any of theirs was special?

            The main point was, it sticks out to me that there were plenty of excuses made after the Albert Bartlett, Kauto Star and RSA...and the market has NOT missed them. He's priced almost as if those excuses are valid, which may not be the case. He's certainly not value considering his number of wins in my opinion. (Doesn't mean I think the others are either...)

            ...and yes, I would say they're all the "wrong price" for the Gold Cup.... not to be mistaken by the fact they MIGHT be very good, even top class... but they're priced like that's the case already, and it MIGHT not be... so in terms of value, in September, I'll look elsewhere (or back them for races much closer, like the Hennessey/LT)



            and we've been tit for tat since 2016, no stopping now .... cos that wasn't 'incorrect information'.

            Comment


            • You are right, if you believe a 33% win rate to be very poor then that is entirely your opinion, but to just state it with no figures opens you up for them figures being brought up and laid out, as per my post. And personally, myself, I don't think the Gold Cup has a superstar and a 33% win rate is more than fair for a top level performer.

              I think the whole Gold Cup market is pretty abysmal now tbh, which is why I've mostly used free bets up to this point.

              New information regarding tit for tat, I had never posted realising this, must try harder

              Comment


              • Originally posted by Istabraq View Post
                Trained by Greatrex so you have to assume the horse will get ruined somewhere in her preperation
                Just need Rich Ricci to have a horse with Greatrex and it'd be your ultimate combination?

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                • Originally posted by jono View Post
                  Just need Rich Ricci to have a horse with Greatrex and it'd be your ultimate combination?
                  For all his faults Ricci is not that stupid....

                  Comment


                  • Originally posted by Istabraq View Post
                    For all his faults Ricci is not that stupid....
                    With you here
                    ... I won't forgive him for Western Ryder Haha

                    Comment


                    • Originally posted by Kevloaf View Post
                      With you here
                      ... I won't forgive him for Western Ryder Haha
                      Being inept is almost forgivable, not Greatrex’s fault he’s clueless, however, my long running loathing of Ricci goes all the way back to Champagne Fever who spent most of his career in the wrong races just to accommodate his other horses....

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                      • Haha yes, I remember you educating me a few years back.

                        There should be a blanket ban on mentioning any horse from that Arkle anyway.

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                        • Agree, but instead of getting chinned on the line by the worst Arkle winner in history he should have been beating O’failans Boy in the RSA but had to once again step aside to make way for the pig that was Ballycasey...

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                          • Henderson confirming today they will go down the King George route with Altior; still not convinced personally this means they’ll go for the Gold Cup but if you think he will probably better backing him sooner rather than later

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                            • Originally posted by FaugheenTheMachine View Post
                              Henderson confirming today they will go down the King George route with Altior; still not convinced personally this means they’ll go for the Gold Cup but if you think he will probably better backing him sooner rather than later
                              Hes been backed all week for the GC. But good to see it confirmed.
                              Should he win the king george, i think its an absolue certainty he goes GC myself. And hed be priced @ 6/4 at tops to win it.

                              Clan des obeaux, la bague au roi, top of the game, poss santini (might side step). ..... and some also rans.
                              No chance ABP/ delta work/ kemboy go KG

                              But they will provide a sterner test in the big one.
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                              Comment


                              • I think it’s one of those occasions where the current price for Altior To Win the Gold Cup (16/1 with 365) could be better than the price of him to win the KG (3/1 generally best) combined/multiplied with the Gold Cup price he would be if he wins the KG.
                                "Journeys to Glory, breathing in his head".

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