The Santini/TOTG/Lostintranslation conundrum reminds me of the Gerrard/Lampard/Scholes debate (obviously Scholes). Before really thinking about it I would have had them in order of preference TOTG/Santini/Lostintranslation. LBAR has form lines that run through the lot, but she wouldn't be on my mind given the trainers preference to skip Cheltenham in favour of targets in Ireland and at Aintree. He was rewarded for that last season so see no reason they would change it.
TOTG is the easiest to access at this stage IMO. He ran a blinder behind LBAR, beating Santini before winning the RSA. Lostintranslation got the better of a tired horse at Aintree and TOTG backers (of which I was one) knew their fate fairly early on.
Lostintranslation is more tricky to access. Under any other trainer he would have surely gone RSA. Facing LBAR twice, both at Newbury, he lost by a length over 2m6f and then clearly got done for toe over 2m3f when he lost by 13 lengths. IMO that alone should have seen them favour stepping up un trip and I think it was his stamina that saw him beat DDS in the Dipper Novices' Chase, and we know that is solid form based on what then happened at Cheltenham. As I mention above, it’s hard to gauge what TOTG he beat at Aintree but he looked completely in his comfort zone over 3m and did it all easily. We know he has a clear target and is uncomplicated in comparison to his trainer!
Santini is one I find both easy and very difficult to access. It’s impossible to know the impact of his interrupted prep on the outcome of the RSA. I know NH has said he ‘is very lazy at home, but fences wake him up’, but one thing I have noticed watching his races back is he is a really lazy bugger. That doesn’t put me off so much at tracks like Newbury over 3m (and I really fancy him for the Hennessey), but it does for somewhere like Cheltenham where that extra 2f up that hill will find out lazy horses, and I would have serious reservations Santini will ever want a proper fight. That can be countered with how he responds to Nico, and he does. Nico has to niggle him along far earlier than his market rivals, which he did against LBAR at Kempton and actually stayed on strongly. The RSA was similar. When heading out on his second circuit, Nico gave him a big slap down the neck and towards the end of the race he was far more animated than DR on DW or HC on TOTG, but he battled on well. If he shows the same signs of laziness in his races then he is the ideal candidate for a bet in play, but its too early to think about things like that.
Based on what we know now my preference has shifted to Lostintranslation/TOTG/Santini for the Gold Cup, and Santini/Lostintranslation/TOTG for the Hennessey.
TOTG is the easiest to access at this stage IMO. He ran a blinder behind LBAR, beating Santini before winning the RSA. Lostintranslation got the better of a tired horse at Aintree and TOTG backers (of which I was one) knew their fate fairly early on.
Lostintranslation is more tricky to access. Under any other trainer he would have surely gone RSA. Facing LBAR twice, both at Newbury, he lost by a length over 2m6f and then clearly got done for toe over 2m3f when he lost by 13 lengths. IMO that alone should have seen them favour stepping up un trip and I think it was his stamina that saw him beat DDS in the Dipper Novices' Chase, and we know that is solid form based on what then happened at Cheltenham. As I mention above, it’s hard to gauge what TOTG he beat at Aintree but he looked completely in his comfort zone over 3m and did it all easily. We know he has a clear target and is uncomplicated in comparison to his trainer!
Santini is one I find both easy and very difficult to access. It’s impossible to know the impact of his interrupted prep on the outcome of the RSA. I know NH has said he ‘is very lazy at home, but fences wake him up’, but one thing I have noticed watching his races back is he is a really lazy bugger. That doesn’t put me off so much at tracks like Newbury over 3m (and I really fancy him for the Hennessey), but it does for somewhere like Cheltenham where that extra 2f up that hill will find out lazy horses, and I would have serious reservations Santini will ever want a proper fight. That can be countered with how he responds to Nico, and he does. Nico has to niggle him along far earlier than his market rivals, which he did against LBAR at Kempton and actually stayed on strongly. The RSA was similar. When heading out on his second circuit, Nico gave him a big slap down the neck and towards the end of the race he was far more animated than DR on DW or HC on TOTG, but he battled on well. If he shows the same signs of laziness in his races then he is the ideal candidate for a bet in play, but its too early to think about things like that.
Based on what we know now my preference has shifted to Lostintranslation/TOTG/Santini for the Gold Cup, and Santini/Lostintranslation/TOTG for the Hennessey.
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