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  1. #41
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    To be fair, I've had enough people telling me that Kemboy isn't bred to get more than 3 miles and I'm happy to ignore them because Willie is confident that stamina isn't a problem. Given that he's won me the neck end of £5k in prize-money in the last month, I tend to not look at it from a betting point of view.

    If it's your gut feel that Altior will stay and Nicky goes that route, I'm just not qualified to decide whether or not it's a sensible bet. I just don't see that anything changes through the summer.

  2. #42
    Quote Originally Posted by archie View Post
    At this moment in time, any horse can only be even money to turn up for this race. That means that 12/1 now represents 11/2 on the day.

    Last season, Clan Des Obeaux won a G1 and a G2 on the run up to Cheltenham and started at 5/1 against an uneasy favourite. I'm struggling to see how Santini can perform to a similar level this season because the standard prep races just don't suit him. It's difficult to see a reason why his price would alter in the next 6 months which is why I'm 100% with Kev that 12/1 is simply not value.

    Slightly different if you need a price now for multiples but I'd want a reason for staking the money now rather than when they're back in training.
    I think thatís an excellent post. A couple of very good points made

  3. #43
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    I do feel the need to emphasise that all my comments are about how I, as a light and cautious ante-post player, would approach the book.

    The absolute disclaimer is that no-one should consider it as advice about their own investments.

  4. #44
    Top Amateur jono's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by archie View Post
    At this moment in time, any horse can only be even money to turn up for this race. That means that 12/1 now represents 11/2 on the day.

    Last season, Clan Des Obeaux won a G1 and a G2 on the run up to Cheltenham and started at 5/1 against an uneasy favourite. I'm struggling to see how Santini can perform to a similar level this season because the standard prep races just don't suit him. It's difficult to see a reason why his price would alter in the next 6 months which is why I'm 100% with Kev that 12/1 is simply not value.
    In theory and as a whole for most horses this makes absolute sense and I would completely agree but just taking Santini in isolation to his price and how it will change through the year... (not the argument of it being value)

    For all his career has always been shorter than he should have been so comparing him to other horses or using logic is slightly skewed.

    Santini was around this price (12/1) at the start of last season. Then all it took was a few good words here and there in the previews, stable tours etc and by mid October, still yet to race over fences he was a top price 8/1 and a general 6/1 in places. After his chase debut at Newbury (1st December) he was down to 9/2 and as low as 3/1 for the RSA. Despite what was essentially flopping at Kempton when only 3rd at 11/10F AND then having a bad prep not only missing his intended trial race but also the foot issues in the days leading up to the race he still went off 3/1 for the RSA, a shorter price than the eventual winner TOTG who had beaten him at Kempton.

    Clan des Obeaux on the other hand was at the start of last season an outsider for the Gold Cup and available at 50/1 for the race prior to his King George win. however good his wins were at Kempton and Ascot, such a big price at that point always meant that his price wouldn't tumble as much as some. Nicholls has always held him in high regard but he's had nothing like the same level of praise that has followed Santini. He won't of course go for the same races and you have opposition to consider but if hypothetically Santini were to run in and win both the King George and Denman Chase this season he would 100% be shorter than CdO was however the other Gold Cup contenders have done. Quite often and not always right prices are reflective of potential rather than proven form.

    Now the fact the division is deep and the open company markets tend to not be as volatile and less likely to succumb to a positive stable tour etc or a half decent chase debut should mean his price holds but don't be surprised if we at some stage between now and December we are remarking how his price has got shorter by a point or 2 despite not actually doing anything.

    IF you reeeally fancy Santini to come out on top next March AND you are happy to back horses this far out I can see why you would take the price if you take the viewpoint that he will be shorter as the season progresses and I think his career to date suggests that will happen even if his bare form doesn't quite justify it.

    As has been said though already, for me you take the 12/1 for the Ladbroke now and go from there. Take the same price for a race 4 months in advance. You know he won't be going to Kempton again, and it would appear without being confirmed like the likely target for him.

    He's rated 163 which although high (Bobs Worth 160, Denman (1st year) 161) you'd have to fancy him to be right up there if he has any chance of being a leading Gold Cup contender and challenging the likes of Al Boum Photo (175) and Kemboy (177). Plenty of improvement will be needed by the novices to get that level that's for sure. Frankly unless say Topofthegame / Lostintranslation also lines up he needs to win to be a serious Gold Cup player. (Djakadam defied flopping there but as a whole i'd side by this view)

    On Topofthegame - Harry Derham said on a recent podcast that PN had already mapped out his route for next season, though did not go into detail. You'd have to assume Kempton and the King George is almost certainly off the agenda with both Cyrname and Clan des Obeaux for the race...Perhaps either or a mix of the following campaigns:

    Charlie Hall (early Nov)
    Betfair Chase (late Nov)
    Denman Chase (Feb)

    (as Silv Conti did in his open company year)

    or

    Ladbroke (early Dec)
    Lexus? (late Dec)
    Denman Chase (Feb)

    (as Denman did)

    How likely do we feel a Topofthegame vs Santini rematch in the Ladbroke? A race both trainers are happy to go for and whereby the obvious English winter trial (King George) would be unlikely for both.

  5. #45
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    That's all logical and well argued. I agree that the same price for the Ladbrokes is the better bet but I'd also say that my argument about not having any bet until they come back into training is a better strategy because there's no reason for either price to change until September.

  6. #46
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    Quote Originally Posted by archie View Post
    That's all logical and well argued. I agree that the same price for the Ladbrokes is the better bet but I'd also say that my argument about not having any bet until they come back into training is a better strategy because there's no reason for either price to change until September.
    There’s no reason for any price to change from now until September unless a market leader suffers an injury but we all know they will. Santini and annamix were 2 last year that halved in price over the summer without leaving their box

  7. #47

  8. #48
    What do you make of that Archie?

    I suppose ratings are irrelevant in that Kemboy isn't going to run in a handicap anytime soon but it must be great to say you have the top rated NH horse in training.

  9. #49
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    The ratings will make no difference to what happens next season but it's great to see him finally getting the credit and recognition that he deserves.

  10. #50
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    Worth putting this classification list up here (and as a starting point for the Ryanair and QM threads) as it's broken down by distance.

    https://www.britishhorseracing.com/w...eeplechase.pdf

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