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  1. #1
    Top Amateur jono's Avatar
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    Enhance or Disappoint

    As per Quevega's post before the DRF:
    http://www.fatjockey.com/forum/showt...-or-Disappoint

    Which horses will enhance or disappoint during Punchestown this week with a view primarily to Cheltenham 2020.

    Without declarations for days 3- i'll primarily start on the first 2 days...

    Enhance

    Delta Work
    Also keen to see whether A Plus Tard can back up his handicap win at the festival and compete at grade 1 level which is a question mark still, albeit I do expect him to compete here. Opened up at 12/1 when targets were up in the air but now sits at 2/1. The price difference between him and DW now is far too short on what they've both achieved and despite being keen on APT going forward, Delta Work has always been the most likely winner of this race so getting 7/4 in comparison for DW is big. Think there's been a bit of an over reaction to his RSA defeat, no harm whatsoever in finishing 3rd in that RSA and looked the best Irish novice chaser around for much of the season. 20/1 for the Gold Cup won't be around after today. But i'll take the 7/4 today and roll that onto the GC as i'd expect to get approx 34/1 on that double once the prices adjust accordingly.

    Allaho
    Watched the Albert Bartlett race back last night. I forgot just how good Minella Indo looked. Would love to see him back that run up here but it's not an easy race to follow up an Albert Bartlett and as usual the Punchestown race looks very strong with the top 3 in the AB taking eachother on again and Carefully Selected joining the party. Though I don't think he'll disappoint in any way, i'm siding with Allaho potentially reversing the form and getting the better of him, as he did in Clonmel in February. WH are offering 50/1 for Aallaho to do the double of this race and the RSA, which i've taken.

    Champagne Platinum
    The first grade 1 of the race looks a really tricky race. I hope KD wins well and confirms his position as one of the leading novices but he could be vulnerable at the trip on better ground (when it was touch and go between Supreme/Ballymore) at odds on. Quick Grabim makes lots of appeal but despite not anything like the form of a lot of these on paper, I still really like Champagne Platinum as a horse going forward. On one hand Henderson I don't think would throw him into this race without merit, but on the other hand, we've spoken before about how Henderson's novice hurdlers aren't always fully primed for their debut novice hurdle campaigns. Even if he doesn't win, i'd expect a strong race showing he can compete at this level at the very least. Being my early fancy for the Arkle next season, i'm hoping so anyway! Will hover over the 22/1 WH Any Race

    Disappoint

    Apple's Jade
    Love this mare. But she seems a shadow of her Winter form this Spring. You can definitely argue a case of Cheltenham
    not being 'her track' but for me we've now seen her disappoint to varying degrees at both Punchestown (2018) and Aintree (2019). Looking through the card there might not be a lot to take her on in the 3 mile race so she might just have enough but if Laurina or Benie des Dieux take her on in the Mares i's expect her to get beat on the form of the last 2 runs wherever she runs. Obviously if she ran to her Winter form nothing will stop her but it seems like the Winter might be the only time to back her now on what we've seen over the last 18 months.

    Duc des Genievres
    A weak Arkle field got even worse halfway round so although impressive, i'll be taking him on going forward at short odds. Can't get away from the lacklustre vibes he had going into the Arkle, which really suggests he was far from connections main string for the race throughout the year and his position in the stable and market just fell into place. In fairness to him he has bits and pieces of good form. The beating of both A Plus Tard and Tower Bridge was franked when that pair finished 1-2 in the Close Brothers. And Us and Them following him home in the Arkle adds consistency to his placing in the 2 mile division. But I just don't rate that division and think most of those 2 milers will find little in open company next year (made a point before the Arkle saying no runner in the race will line up in the Champion Chase 2020). Once they face a better rival, they may well be found out. And I expect that up against Defi de Seuil or the danger of Chacun Pour Soi.

  2. #2
    Champ Kevloaf's Avatar
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    Nice start with Delta Work jono, well done.

    Mental that Delta Work was double the price of Santini before he won today. Hardly a thing between them in the RSA really.



    Benie Des Dieux to ENHANCE?
    Laurina to disappoint?



    I did have a thought cross my mind that Laurina could win the Mares and Benie step UP in trip and win the 3m race...

    and next season, do the same at Cheltenham. Ricci allowed Mullins to send a mare to the Stayers, and she does look a stayer more than Annie ever did...

    Laurina probably won't go chasing.... so she has to go for the Mares race? THEN I realised Laurina could become a 3 mile hurdler and BDD defend her crown so I stopped bothering.

  3. #3
    Quote Originally Posted by Kevloaf View Post
    Nice start with Delta Work jono, well done.

    Mental that Delta Work was double the price of Santini before he won today. Hardly a thing between them in the RSA really.



    Benie Des Dieux to ENHANCE?
    Laurina to disappoint?



    I did have a thought cross my mind that Laurina could win the Mares and Benie step UP in trip and win the 3m race...

    and next season, do the same at Cheltenham. Ricci allowed Mullins to send a mare to the Stayers, and she does look a stayer more than Annie ever did...

    Laurina probably won't go chasing.... so she has to go for the Mares race? THEN I realised Laurina could become a 3 mile hurdler and BDD defend her crown so I stopped bothering.
    Out of interest Kev why don’t you think Laurina would go chasing?

    I thought I’d read somewhere that Mullins thinks she’d be a nice novice chase prospect earlier this season.

  4. #4
    Champ Kevloaf's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Middle_Of_March View Post
    Out of interest Kev why don’t you think Laurina would go chasing?

    I thought I’d read somewhere that Mullins thinks she’d be a nice novice chase prospect earlier this season.
    She didn't this year and the Mares looks a good trip fit her and is the most winnable race.

    I backed her for the Arkle this year as I know he's said she'd be a chaser however now she eels only really have the JLT or RSA as realistic chasing goals so without a mares chase at Cheltenham I would think it's unlikely she ended up the.

    Not impossible, but it's not worth backing any opinion on it this far out imo

  5. #5
    I Think CoF may reverse the form from cheltenham today.
    I also think Apple's Jade may run really well on Friday.
    Laurina or BDD will win mares race and unsure if they'll run both or not.


    I think Kemboy is more likely to disappoint vs Al Boum, but it could be close.
    Defi will probably beat DDG who may not run so well.
    And as I fancy CoF I think Minella Indo may disappoint also.

    Although yesterday wasn't one of my best so who knows.

  6. #6
    Quote Originally Posted by quevega View Post
    I Think CoF may reverse the form from cheltenham today.
    I also think Apple's Jade may run really well on Friday.
    Laurina or BDD will win mares race and unsure if they'll run both or not.


    I think Kemboy is more likely to disappoint vs Al Boum, but it could be close.
    Defi will probably beat DDG who may not run so well.
    And as I fancy CoF I think Minella Indo may disappoint also.

    Although yesterday wasn't one of my best so who knows.
    Not going well so far.

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