Cheltenham 2019 - Analysis (What did we learn, with 2020 in mind)

[Middle_Of_March]

4. What advice or lessons can be learnt from this year (ante post and/or on the day)

I’ve had a few already in the first few questions but some others that are in my head:

Last years favourites/fancied horses – This is an angle I did bring up this year and William Henry did the business in the Coral Cup at 35/1. Next best was Tobefair in the Pertemps, 2nd at 66/1! There was also a huge run from Sam Spinner at 36.75/1 2^nd in the Stayers and Melon at 22/1 in the Champion Hurdle.
All of them had either gone off fav or been ‘very strong’ in the market in the same race the year before and the angle is that, whatever made them so strong last year in the market has been somewhat dismissed in their price this year. Melon is perhaps dubious as it was ante post however the others all fitted the pattern strongly. My personal feeling is that when a horse ‘flops’ when well fancied, the connections first thought is to have another crack at it… the pressure is off and they come in under the radar and run a massive race. It isn’t something I did consciously until quite late on but it is definitely an angle I’ll be looking at next year. A horse like Presenting Percy or Laurina probably wouldn’t ever get forgotten about, and it’s hard to know who it’ll be but it’s something I’ll keep my eye on!

Backing during a race – Something I did more than ever this year, best example being Paisley Park in the Stayers Hurdle. As he was about to cross the line I backed hi mand he was sortened within 30 seconds after. The closer to the festival we get, the more bookies suspend betting during the big races, but early in the season this wasn’t happening. I can’t imagine they have the resource or inclination to do it all year round.
Any Race – linked to above, they seem slower updating the “Any Race” markets. We’re good on here at highlighting it when they forget which I hope continues!

Cash-out – This is a huge one, that we’ve all discussed loads but while I can still use it, it’s really valuable. Early in the season we are ahead of the game with non-runners and changes in target and can react quickly. Again, the closer to the festival we get, the sharper the bookies get – but I don’t expect them to be on it 365 days a year! So if we all continue to share as much info as we can that’d be great.

Free bets - I managed to acquire £1633.98 in free bets that I placed on Cheltenham 2019. My return from them was only £691.25 however, the reality is that I accrue them by my normal week to week gambling anyway, and as that’s profitable, I’ll continue to put them on ante post. I used plenty of them to ‘boost’ winnings on potential horses that I felt were too short to back, and judging by the results, none of them really won so I’d have wasted ‘real money’ on them. Others prefer to shoot for the stars with theres and I totally get that, I haven’t really decided what to do yet, if I could keep hold of them until the week (especially Sky ones) it’d be quite a nice amount to put on a horse I fancied nearer the time… but then again, very hard not to back things at 20/1 plus now.

Lots of good points here.

Firstly, the one about fancied runners. I’d never ever thought about that angle but I really like it. I’ve always thought a horse often gets overpriced after one bad festival run. It’s allowed, they aren’t machines. The Tobefair example is a perfect one. If it had got up to chin on of my biggest handicap fancies of the entire week, I’d be looking back on it now fuming that I didn’t cover a horse like TBF at 66/1. As it was, I only covered First Assignment in the Pertemps. Should’ve looked elsewhere possibly for dangers to cover SDB even though he won. I sometimes focus far too much on one horse from a way out and lose my overall outlook of the race. The Martin Pipe being a perfect example. I really ought to have covered early doors. But I was so deep on DDP from 13/2 down, I left it as a one horse race - Stupid decision. Something I majorly regret and will look at for next year.

The Grand Annual being a perfect example of a hype horse. Magic Saint. What on earth was I thinking plowing into him because of Paul Nicholls saying it was a grade 1 horse in a handicap. Lines like that always pull me in. What I should’ve done was had a bit on him when I heard that (sometimes they do win) but then started from scratch after on the race and formed my own opinion. It feels like I wasted a race there.

[Middle_Of_March]

5. Your biggest mistakes / The races/horses you got wrong
I didn’t have as many ‘strong’ opinions as last year, so this section SHOULD be shorter than it was last year…

Day One
Apple’s Jade at Cheltenham? I don’t want this to be true, but the evidence is starting to stack up. I just can’t get this horse right. When she’s my banker she gets beat, when I’m wary she absolutely dots in. She’s won enough to be a superstar yet I just can’t seem to get her right the week it matters the most! Already mentioned the mistake in not backing Espoir D’Allen. Overall though the mistake was thinking one of the front 3 had this absolutely sewn up – however I’m not sure if I had another 100 goes I’d have done it any different.
Arkle – Not really a mistake but the race was horrible really, as Cilaos Emery, Le Richebourg and Draconien all not getting there had me in a hole before I started. I did okay but not a great race.
Ultima – Beware The Bear I could not fathom defying last years poor run from a higher mark. He’s just a horse in better form, the change of tactics worked but I couldn’t have had him backed at all. Minella Rubbish was pulled up, which goes down as being wrong and my main fancy 45/1 Coo Star Sivola was pathetic. I expected SO much more. Maybe one that’ll be back next year in better form perhaps and forgotten in the market?

Day Two
Min – Thought he was going for the Ryanair (should have!) and when he was re-routed I put too much faith in him to be 2^nd to Altior. I’ve moved away from shorter prices really so having money on Min without at the price he was, probably wasn’t worth doing. Wouldn’t have made a huge difference either way but still a mistake.
Tiger Roll – I should have had more on! I should have absolutely walloped the Altior/Tiger double. I didn’t buy in to the ‘Elliott’s aren’t running well’ but I was reluctant to stake any more by this stage and any returns I’d had were just getting withdrawn instantly so I didn’t ‘give it all back’. Ultimately, these two were the most solid bankers of the week and I didn’t make enough of a deal of it. Too busy looking for fancy prices I suppose when sometimes it pays to stick with the obvious.
Bumper/Blue Sari – Backed him win only! Had cashed out Envoi Allen as has been mentioned and although technically I did have EA land the Trixie, it means on my spread sheet, in terms of SINGLES only, I have still NEVER had a return from a horse in the bumper. An incredible hoodoo!

Day Three
Ryanair – Just got this wrong. Thought it was between Min and Monalee. Then got really scared about Road To Respect and had already played Footpad. Had too many backed already and it was one of the worst races of the week for me (despite the DDS/Frodon double)… lucky.
[FONT="]Mares Novice – [/FONT]Dubious as a mistake as I had the winner, but didn’t have BOG ante post when it was available elsewhere at very similar prices. A little bit silly although relying on BOG is NOT something I want to be doing anyway.

Day Four
Already mentioned but not backing Minella Indo is still annoying a month later. I fired so many darts at the Albert Bartlett and should have just covered the field by the time we got to the race as I had no strong opinion. Poor return despite Allaho getting placed at 40/1.

With the benefit of hindsight, I too very much regret not backing Aspoir D’Allen. I had Laurina covered at 10/1 and any race, I had Buveir D’Air covered at a fair price and I’d steamed into Apples Jade. With Espoir D’Allen winning all 8 of his starts he finished not injured, the 18/1 was a great price. I should’ve covered it but I too thought it was a 3 horse race really. But that’s an error that I won’t repeat next year - sometimes I need to focus outside the obvious as cover bets. This was a good example of that.

The Albert Bartlett I made a meal out of too. Covered a fair few the night before each way expecting at the very least, a return and ended up with just Allaho placing from that lot. I was on Commander of Fleet for any race qt 14/1 from September so I couldn’t believe my luck seeing him get beat by a 40/1 shot. Another annoying race when I felt it was in hand. Like the RSA. Had the 2nd and 3rd at 16/1 and 10/1 but didn’t cover TOTG because I’d missed the price. Really irrritating.

[Middle_Of_March]

6. Other points

Excellent in the Handicaps – Had a pretty good return in the handicaps to be fair after a slow start. Obviously backed multiple runners in each but definitely an area I’m improving in. Had the 1-2 in the Close Brothers, the 1-2-3-4 in the Coral Cup, the 1-2-3 in the Fred Winter, The 1-2-5 in the Pertemps, the ‘lucky’ double with the winner and 3^rd in the Brown Plate with the winner of the Kim Muir, the 2-3 in the Kim Muir as well, the 1-2-3-4 in the County and the 1-2-3-5 in the Martin Pipe!
Overall for the handicaps finished with a net profit of £1954.16 which is 82.45% of my overall profit

Not enough time dedicated to watching video form - This year was a strange year, the weather (no rain) affected pretty much every yard and horse, as well as the equine flu outbreak that is an anomaly too but I didn’t watch as much racing as I normally do. Would be foolish to assume a drop in ROI is not somehow linked to the fact I spent too much time chatting about horses on here without watching the races back more than once!

No 100/1 winners – the elusive 3 figure winner to be tipped on here is evading me – but the search for the next Rawnaq/Saint Calvados goes on ��

Quiet recently – Mayo mentioned I’d been a bit quiet and not on here as often since the festival, reason being…. This years Cheltenham returns have gbeen spent now on applying for our first mortgage, (as we’ve been renting together for 5 years) and part of that involves bank statements being checked and mine are page after page of deposits and withdrawals, so as well as having to display all my spreadsheets and workings as proof that I’m not a complete gambling degenerate I had to show that I can stop whenever I want to…so logging in here wouldn’t have helped me do that. Fortunately, that’s all now sorted and I will be back to normal.

DONE. If you take the time to read it, 1. Get a life and 2. Thank-you – and as I said at the start, I look forward to hearing about your own analysis’ and welcome any questions or advice!

**I exceeded the 20,000 word limit hence the broken down posts** Hahaha

I too did alright in the handicaps but should lay off more in these. Had A Plus Tate but not at 15/2 despite putting him up on here a few days before at that price. Had Dallas Des Pictons at 13/2, went off 5/2. Second. But because it had been a tough week beforehand, I never laid it off. Stupid. Should’ve laid Delta work off at 16s as well really.

On the whole though, I think the handicaps at Cheltenham are definitely profitable. There’s money to be made from them. The Ultima I really should’ve come out well up from. Had Up For Review but after BTB won at Cheltenham after the change of tactics, and that I backed him each way when fourth in the race in 2017, he was one I should’ve backed for it at something like 25/1 a fortnight beforehand. Silly.

[The King Pimm]

Jono - with regards to the B365 cash out facility, I think it’s brilliant and a major factor in why I bet with them so much. My issue at this year’s Festival was that I cashed out too early on a number of bets to ensure I had most of my money back before the Friday. I did the same thing in 2018 when I should have been a bit tougher and let them ride. I’m sure they’ll be a few twitchy bum moment next year and I’ll be moaning afterwards I bottled it again!!

[ComplyOrDie]

Brilliant post Kev. Loved reading that and yours King Pimm. I'll dip in and out probably with some bits and then some analysis of my own (will be far less in-depth!) but the first thought on the handicaps...



I know a lot of people see them as mug bets but have you / thought of placing exactas / trifectas etc? Obviously not an antepost option but just looking through those results, and knowing that you have also hit the 1-2-3's in previous festivals (though maybe not as many)

Close Brothers 1-2 Exacta paid £32.30
Coral Cup 1-2-3-4 Trifecta paid £10,893
Fred Winter 1-2-3 Trifecta paid £410.19
Pertemps 1-2 Exacta paid £2,446.82
County 1-2-3-4 Trifecta paid £3,060.49
Martin Pipe 1-2-3 Trifecta paid £256.98

To a £1 stake.

The amount of horses you had backed in each race may not make it worthwhile (for example if you had 8 runners backed, trying to hit the 1-2-3 would cover 56 combinations, 10 backed 120) but the returns are generally strong and favourable and with the kind of record you have had in the handicaps over the last few seasons, could be worthwhile?

A type of bet I rarely utilise (every year I see the returns, make a note for the next year and forget) but i don't see them much worse than multiples really in the right circumstances. Even the likes of a Early Doors / DDP (24/1) and A Plus Tard / Tower Bridge (31/1) are strong odds for what were fairly obvious and short odd 1-2's

I do the 'muggy' f/c & t/c in pretty much all the handicaps, and my luck was in this year as I also done the Mares Novice hurdle, I couldn't leave all them big priced Mullins runners to just go unbacked, and whilst I landed an incredibly generous forecast I feel a little bit relieved that Tintangle grabbed 3rd as I had Black Tears as one I had backed in a single but not added to the f/c & t/c and that would have paid extremely well!

I landed 2 other f/c's but no more t/c's during the festival and it is fair to say I would have ended down a fair bit had I not landed that Mares Novice one. However that won't stop me doing them for a bit of fun.

[mayo]

Jono - with regards to the B365 cash out facility, I think it’s brilliant and a major factor in why I bet with them so much. My issue at this year’s Festival was that I cashed out too early on a number of bets to ensure I had most of my money back before the Friday. I did the same thing in 2018 when I should have been a bit tougher and let them ride. I’m sure they’ll be a few twitchy bum moment next year and I’ll be moaning afterwards I bottled it again!!

I lost my bottle and did this too.

The one thing I say every year when I read these is that I must keep better records.

The other note to self is to leave the Triumph and Bumper alone.

I did mainly leave the handicaps to NRNB which helped me overall.

I must have a deeper look at when my good bets were struck - there must be some sweet spot for finding value.

[Kevloaf]

Hi Kev - great post. I’ve a few questions and points I’ll make. My own analysis for my festival will come after the jumps season ends so probably in two or three weeks time.

Firstly, whilst the ROI didn’t improve again, it’s still at a very decent level which I’m sure all of us would be pleased with.. Do you set an amount you want to win, as in a percentage target? I see you said you were aiming to bet £15k but bet 20k. Would you say because your stake rose from £10 to £20 for a single point, and therefore had a fair bit more on every race, you were inclined to cover more horses because of the worry of losing that higher amount on a race? Therefore your ROI dropped? Do you see what I mean - I’m not sure I’ve explained it too well.

Thanks MoM.

Yes Isee what you're asking.

Erm, no I don't think I bet more because of the amount staked - I am quite good at thinking in 'points' so the total stake and each race, and horse are just 'pts' to me - and my aim is to make as many 'pts' as possible...and then when I withdraw it all I start thinking of it like real money again.

If someone said to me if I don't bet for 9 months they'll give me £20k in cash I'd be pretty likely to take it - so I think of it in terms of 'small gains' rather than the whole amount.


That said, putting £20 per point instead of £10 did lend itself to me going "over-budget" - - I was actually behind year-on-year until after Christmas I think... I'm still inclined to blame the lack of real strong opinions (due to lack of good horses/form on show) than my own stake.

Hope that answers?

[Kevloaf]

For what it’s worth on this section, I think the Envoi Allen situation for yourself and Faugheen Machine was just very bad luck. I think things like that will just happen occasionally and we have to not dwell.

I should take my own advice as I ended up down from the festival this year but would’ve been well up if Benie Des Dieux stayed on here feet. That fall haunts me. A really hard one to take. I was at the final hurdle when she came down and literally three seconds before she fell I said aloud ‘just please please don’t fall’. Ecstasy to agony in one hit.

A feeling many can relate to if they witnessed the Annie Power fall too.

I have given some thought to the 'one horse week' - (Where one horse winning would make the whole week profitable)... I can see positives and negatives... I don't think I'd ever PLAN for it, unless I was absolutely sold on a horse. I haven't been since Frankel though so the bar is pretty high. Also, I'd need to win 20k+ from a single horse which isn't my style either really - I do spread the risk around. (I know BDD isn't exactly the same in this situation for you, I've digressed)

I know a lot of people in the game say multiples are just not the way to go antepost. My numbers are with that as I often finish down from them. That’s because I can’t resist the yankees and the Canadians as well as the occasional Heinz/Suoer Heinz. I almost expect to finish down from them every year.

But the thing is, the one year where the right ones win, it’s gonna pay for them for many many years - potentially life changing. I had Canadians of Sire Du Berlais, Klassical Dream, Tiger Roll, Altior and Defi De Seuil over the week. Frustratingly, I never had them five all together though. But one year I will. And the results will be golden.

With you, as someone who covers more horses than me per race, I think the cover multiples are a very decent idea. That trixie with Envoi Allen for example. It’s a smart bet.

Thanks, I suppose it's hard to quantify exactly how 'smart' the bet is... as it's just effectively arbing and it takes away from finding the winners. It's a different skill to be fair.

I had a lot of help/guidance from some of the long term posters on this when I joined a few years back

[Kevloaf]

Lots of good points here.

Firstly, the one about fancied runners. I’d never ever thought about that angle but I really like it. I’ve always thought a horse often gets overpriced after one bad festival run. It’s allowed, they aren’t machines. The Tobefair example is a perfect one. If it had got up to chin on of my biggest handicap fancies of the entire week, I’d be looking back on it now fuming that I didn’t cover a horse like TBF at 66/1. As it was, I only covered First Assignment in the Pertemps. Should’ve looked elsewhere possibly for dangers to cover SDB even though he won. I sometimes focus far too much on one horse from a way out and lose my overall outlook of the race. The Martin Pipe being a perfect example. I really ought to have covered early doors. But I was so deep on DDP from 13/2 down, I left it as a one horse race - Stupid decision. Something I majorly regret and will look at for next year.

The Grand Annual being a perfect example of a hype horse. Magic Saint. What on earth was I thinking plowing into him because of Paul Nicholls saying it was a grade 1 horse in a handicap. Lines like that always pull me in. What I should’ve done was had a bit on him when I heard that (sometimes they do win) but then started from scratch after on the race and formed my own opinion. It feels like I wasted a race there.

I think a lot of the handicaps come down to what you consider value. Magic Saint was easy for me to avoid, as absolutely nobody (bookies being the main ones) missed it. If anyone looked at what he, or Give Me A Copper had actully achieved they'd be no where near favourites. Obviously though, form isn't the only thing to go on but avoiding hype horses in general, in any race is beneficial, as the value / juice in the price or however you want to say it, is gone.

I covered Magic Saint and Give Me A Copper though in multiples... (the same ones to be fair) - only very speculative for less than £10 with plenty of the other Nicholls horses just in case the type of festival that happened to Nicky a few years back happened. Essentially I bought in to the Nicholls hype, as he was THE dominant force when I got in to the sport so I have a soft spot.

With the benefit of hindsight, I too very much regret not backing Aspoir D’Allen. I had Laurina covered at 10/1 and any race, I had Buveir D’Air covered at a fair price and I’d steamed into Apples Jade. With Espoir D’Allen winning all 8 of his starts he finished not injured, the 18/1 was a great price. I should’ve covered it but I too thought it was a 3 horse race really. But that’s an error that I won’t repeat next year - sometimes I need to focus outside the obvious as cover bets. This was a good example of that.

The Albert Bartlett I made a meal out of too. Covered a fair few the night before each way expecting at the very least, a return and ended up with just Allaho placing from that lot. I was on Commander of Fleet for any race qt 14/1 from September so I couldn’t believe my luck seeing him get beat by a 40/1 shot. Another annoying race when I felt it was in hand. Like the RSA. Had the 2nd and 3rd at 16/1 and 10/1 but didn’t cover TOTG because I’d missed the price. Really irrritating.

Do you think if we did take the 'safe option' though, and covered more (or even made a book for the race) it's taking the gamble out of it?

It effectively just becomes a game of me trying to beat the market SP and my own opinions out of it.... I can't tell whether I'm justifying having an opinion in the race even though it's wrong OR I'm just ignoring the fact I made a poor punting decision.

[Kevloaf]

Jono -

1. Superb on the ROI, and the last 4 years worth is fantastic to be at that level, consistantly. As you know, we have a different betting approach, but for anyone that has the more realistic approach to ante-post punting they really could and should be reading and understanding why you pick the horses you do, because you don't have numbers like that without being VERY shrewd. Away from Cheltenham I have a very similar approach too - hopefully I can convince you to see the festival 'my way' and we can find a balance between the two

2. Yeah, stop messing about and get yourself back on here more regularly next season. I'm determined to get you in to the flat too

3. Similar to what MoM has said as well, nicely put - 'tipping point' horses. Was Penhill another for you this year?

4. Loads of good points - On taking Gordon at his word trhough.... EA was bad, but he also ruled out Apple's Jade in the CH at one point. It didn't affect any of us but he did catogorically say she'd go for the Mares, or maybe the stayers. Ultimately I don't have a problem, he's only answering questions asked...but in terms of giving him more of a 'free-pass' than we give Willie, no way for me. They're all the same (which I don't have a problem with) but fool me once....

5. Interesting that you think Sire Du Berlais is a mistake. Despite winning, the analysis charlie did pre-Cheltenham about JP horses, favourites etc made him an obvious one to avoid. I wasn't strong enough to take it on board and did back him late on as I said, but I think I got lucky rather than that being good. I missed the prices that plenty got, Quevega springs to mind but I know there were others.... and MOST of the time, I am the one on the value... Fear Of Missing Out is the reason I backed SDB, which is not a sensible strategy. It definitely was an obvious plot, but can we honestly say 6/1 was value even the night before? I'm not so sure... especially when your other point about rules from last year would have landed you the 2nd at 66/1 e/w which more than pays its way?

On the 4 miler, I'd say that was more unlucky than a point to change. I gave Le Breuil hardly any chance at all, but looked at what I'd already backed and thought I'd be stupid not to back him (similar thought process to Espoir D'allen in the CH) obviously one went right, the other went wrong...BUT it isn't always easy to make the call, especially when you feel you have the race by the balls.

Back to 2. - Very interesting on the E/W - I know this splits opinion. I love an E/W bet at 16/1 or bigger. The closer we get, the lower the odds and I'll go e/w (8/1) - on the day I'd take 4/1 e/w depending on the situation.

My advice - I think if you put the effort in to the flat, I am convinced you'd make steady profit on average each weekend, which creates the additional funds. I then focus them in to the festival ante post and that's grown to allow me to get to the staking I am at. A £20 ew bet on Cheltenham doesn't hurt as much if you've just had a 8/1 winner £20 on the flat etc....

I wouldn't increase the number of runners for next season... what you're doing works really well. If you doubled your stake it'd be the fastest way to increasing profit rather than changing the approach.

[Quevega]

I'll add up the ROI at the end.

TUESDAY

Supreme - W 25-1 Klassical Dream AP
think i had about five runners in this.


I won on the race and on reflection I think the race may turn out to be not too great, although the winner looks very good, I'm not convinced there was any depth to this years renewal, so will be ignoring most of the runners. I had no strong opinion in the race beforehand but was against angel's breath and Al Dancer and Aramon. Didn't back the 2nd and third ew which was a slight gripe.
This race really frustrated me again this year though as the hype and talk around some horse with no serious form is verging on idiocy.
There are many on here who could learn to ignore the hype and watch the races instead. The hardest race to weight up in the last two years as the seriously run trials have been messy or the winners haven't made it to the festival.



Arkle - L
had four runners

As with many on here, was in a good position for a while on various horses including a nice antepost (over 100-1) double with Le Richebourg and DEfi de Seuill for the JLT. Has no serious strong opinion near the day but went with Glen Forsa. A mess of a race and I think the winner was flattered and will not be following this form much at all (I'll be watching punchestown for confirmation),



Ultima - W Beware the bear 20-1 ew NRNB Vintage Clouds 33-1 ew NRNB
had six runners in this

Most enjoyable race this, as I was still sober enough and was out on course watching and when four of them jumped the second last, I had backed the lot. OO Seven was 80-1 on the morning which I thought was too big and at one point I thought he was going to last the distance and Up for review at 20-1 was travelling really well but faded also. This race is becoming a little less like a handicap IMO and more of a been there and done it type of race. I can't recall many horses that have been really well handicapped for a while, and I think you just need to be reasonably weighted and either in great form or with great form over the course and distance. But it's really a fun race and hard to get too serious about whose going to win.



Champion Hurdle - L
had four runners in this

Like many on here. I thought it was in the bag. I'd been on the apple's jade for the champion thought process from a long way out and had got 20-1 AP and was on Laurina from last season. Not a fan of Buvuer Dair but was able to have savers on him. I toyed with the idea of adding others but couldn't see anything else happening.
They went so quick early on that I think it set it up perfectly for Laurina and apples. But apples' just didn't run her race (not for the first time at cheltenham for varying reasons) and I'll probably not back her again here. Laurina had to go quicker than she's been in the first half mile and unfortunately she wasn't up to it at the finish. I'll probably give her another chance at punchestown as I think she may still be top class, but I'm not sure.
Espoir D'allen therefore was exceptional, and I think could easily win next year again.



Mares hurdle - L
just two in this.

A victim of the fall like many I'm sure.
L'd predicted the switch for apples and Laurina to stay champion and got on at decent prices for BDD, so was a race I had in the bag from a fair way out.
Although I was less wounded than I would have been had Apple's won the champion as a pretty big double would have bitten the dust.
I didn't have many savers on this race as I though BDD was a certainty. Although Roksana was a horse I liked since aintree the previous season I din't bother, so a small mistake there I suppose. But I was happy I got this race bang on, was just unlucky.



Close Brothers - W A Plus Tard 16-1 ew NRNB
had four runners in this

Ended up with four runners in this from memory, and although the others disappointed, this was the winner from a long way out so was again watching a happy man, just hoping for no errors. I think the winner looked brilliant (and the jockey) and I'm not sure anything else in the race is worth following just yet. I think we need to be a little cautious with a plus tard though as it looked a little bit too good in a funny way, and it was well beat by winter escape the time before for no obvious reason.



Four Miler - L
had four in this

Had the big favourites at fancy prices in this but refused to back le breuil as thought it wouldn't stay, gone right off the horse after backing it in staying handicap hurdles off a great mark and it being shite last season. Would have won had discorama outbattled it but hey ho.
The race was so attritional I'm not sure what to make of the form for next season but I'm keen to see what happens with OK Corral as it looked a nice horse until this race. Don't know it's new mark but even off 153 I'd be keen on it for the Hennesey and it has a similar profile to this years winner.




Overall the summary for the first day was - I was pleased with myself and how I'd judged the likely outcome of each race with my betting strategies. But for a fall at the last and a neck defeat, it would have been very successful, and not many could have envisaged how the champion hurdle would pan out.

The handicaps couldn't have gone any better really and to win a couple of handicaps at the festival is good going so to bag the first two at much bigger odds due to NRNB I couldn't grumble. The stakes were higher also as they were NRNB and nearer the day. Most of my antepost bets were smaller in comparison, but a one pointer on Klassical covered them all for this day.

Don't take a genius but the horses for next years festival would be Klassical dream, Espoir D'allen, A Plus Tard, and BDD.

[Quevega]

WEDNESDAY

Ballymore - W City Island 33-1 AP
I had five running for me.

Similar to the supreme although the depth to this race may prove to be a little better IMO. I was strong on Champ for a while but did not have much on or at fancy prices 10-1 13-2 from memory. But the city island ap bet placed around the same time as the klassical dream bet paid off nicely. I think the first two could be very good horses and I'm looking forward to seeing Champ chasing.
A good start to the day and a solid looking form race to me.

RSA - W Topofthegame 14-1 AP
just three in this

Another race that looks solid for form, especially for here at the festival as I think the winner and second are going to be specialists and at there best around here. Although like some others on here, I think Delta Work might just end up the better horse but his size just bothers me a little in comparison. Best antepost race by far as it was clear from a long way out who the players were going to be.

Coral Cup - L
think i had four runners.

My least favourite race and often struggle to even get placed horses. The angle and trajectory of where the entries can come from is so varied, as you get novices, chasers, stayers and 2 milers all chancing their luck. It's also quite rare in recent years for well handicapped horses to run here also, as trainers seem to go for other targets. NRNB strategy cost me canardier 5th place as I'd gone for a four places bookie at better odds. A leave till day of race race for me in future. unless another storyteller (lesson learned with handicap ruling on that one) pops up. Apples' Shakira ran well in her rubbish 5yr old season and may come good again next year.

Queen Mother - L
ended up with one runner i think.

backed Hells kitchen ew and got fourth. Other best ran elsewhere and so a watching race for me. Best chance ever to beat Altior as I thought the ride was all wrong. sitting for so long off a slowish pace was the only way to get the horse beat, any more clumsy a jump at last two and he would have got beat. I've actually begun to think that Nico is a negative on most horses as he appears to have little strength at a finish and is not that tactically aware. I'll be factoring this into my betting next season and wouldn't be surprised if Henderson ends up with another top jockey on the yard.

Cross Country - W Tiger Roll 6-4 on the day.
2 runners

Biggest single bet after 48hr decs (around 25 pts) had to spread it round a bit.
also backed ballycasey NRNB ew.
Nothing else to say, just a seriously good horse and won easy as you'd want.


Fred Winter - L
3 runners i think

Got this race all wrong, and nowhere near placing on my selections. was also convinced the race wouldn't suit the winner and aintree would be better for a flat bred sprinter. So by far the least successfully judged race by me. The saving grace is it's probably the worst race. Compounded by lumping on band of outlaws at aintree. a clue to how well the triumph went for me on friday.

Bumper - L
3 runners

very similar story to the fred winter and was against blue sari big time and he nearly made me look dumb (still did a little bit)
wasn't surprised to see Envoi Allen win and was one of those sold down the river by gobshite elliott (think the owners are rubbing off on him). I think becasue I'd cashed out I was trying to get it beat and ended up losing on the race because of it, although the thought process behind meticulous having a better chance than his odds was sound enough really, as was being against Blue sari. Just didn;t trun out well. Pretty sure I won't be following any of these novice hurdling, but will watch the punchestown bumpers for any confirmation. Envoi Allen looks the most likely over a trip though.


Overall, wasn't happy with Wednesday performance and was still recovering from a serious session down on cheltenham the day before.
A typical wednesday for me, rescued by the antepost bet on City Island and the tiger.

Horses to take away for next year, City Island, Champ, Brewinupastrom, all three from the RSA, apple's shakira, Tiger Roll, Band of Outlaws, Envoi Allen.

[jack1092]

Jono -

1. Superb on the ROI, and the last 4 years worth is fantastic to be at that level, consistantly. As you know, we have a different betting approach, but for anyone that has the more realistic approach to ante-post punting they really could and should be reading and understanding why you pick the horses you do, because you don't have numbers like that without being VERY shrewd. Away from Cheltenham I have a very similar approach too - hopefully I can convince you to see the festival 'my way' and we can find a balance between the two

2. Yeah, stop messing about and get yourself back on here more regularly next season. I'm determined to get you in to the flat too

3. Similar to what MoM has said as well, nicely put - 'tipping point' horses. Was Penhill another for you this year?

4. Loads of good points - On taking Gordon at his word trhough.... EA was bad, but he also ruled out Apple's Jade in the CH at one point. It didn't affect any of us but he did catogorically say she'd go for the Mares, or maybe the stayers. Ultimately I don't have a problem, he's only answering questions asked...but in terms of giving him more of a 'free-pass' than we give Willie, no way for me. They're all the same (which I don't have a problem with) but fool me once....

5. Interesting that you think Sire Du Berlais is a mistake. Despite winning, the analysis charlie did pre-Cheltenham about JP horses, favourites etc made him an obvious one to avoid. I wasn't strong enough to take it on board and did back him late on as I said, but I think I got lucky rather than that being good. I missed the prices that plenty got, Quevega springs to mind but I know there were others.... and MOST of the time, I am the one on the value... Fear Of Missing Out is the reason I backed SDB, which is not a sensible strategy. It definitely was an obvious plot, but can we honestly say 6/1 was value even the night before? I'm not so sure... especially when your other point about rules from last year would have landed you the 2nd at 66/1 e/w which more than pays its way?

On the 4 miler, I'd say that was more unlucky than a point to change. I gave Le Breuil hardly any chance at all, but looked at what I'd already backed and thought I'd be stupid not to back him (similar thought process to Espoir D'allen in the CH) obviously one went right, the other went wrong...BUT it isn't always easy to make the call, especially when you feel you have the race by the balls.

Back to 2. - Very interesting on the E/W - I know this splits opinion. I love an E/W bet at 16/1 or bigger. The closer we get, the lower the odds and I'll go e/w (8/1) - on the day I'd take 4/1 e/w depending on the situation.

My advice - I think if you put the effort in to the flat, I am convinced you'd make steady profit on average each weekend, which creates the additional funds. I then focus them in to the festival ante post and that's grown to allow me to get to the staking I am at. A £20 ew bet on Cheltenham doesn't hurt as much if you've just had a 8/1 winner £20 on the flat etc....

I wouldn't increase the number of runners for next season... what you're doing works really well. If you doubled your stake it'd be the fastest way to increasing profit rather than changing the approach.

This can be a tricky thing to do i think, keep your approach the same while increasing your stake. Obviously the money you put into betting should be an amount you can afford, but it can still test the mentality!

[robith]

I like watching Eurovision and the tactical voting and have always wondered if it was a decent betting event. If you posted your bets up for it on here, I for one would appreciate it.

I like betting on reality TV. The problem is that it’s usually £20 max bet per account on reality TV. I’m a celebrity get me out of here is particularly easy to win from imo. Rednapp at 10/1 this year for example. Value.

Eurovision is easily my most profitable event of the year, especially as my wife is a bit of a soothsayer on it (she picked Austria at 400/1 the year Conchinta Wurst won it. She's France at 60/1 this year). Especially if you like an arb, you can back countries in the semi final at bigger prices and trade them off when the price contracts when they make the final.

[Middle_Of_March]

Thanks MoM.

Yes Isee what you're asking.

Erm, no I don't think I bet more because of the amount staked - I am quite good at thinking in 'points' so the total stake and each race, and horse are just 'pts' to me - and my aim is to make as many 'pts' as possible...and then when I withdraw it all I start thinking of it like real money again.

If someone said to me if I don't bet for 9 months they'll give me £20k in cash I'd be pretty likely to take it - so I think of it in terms of 'small gains' rather than the whole amount.


That said, putting £20 per point instead of £10 did lend itself to me going "over-budget" - - I was actually behind year-on-year until after Christmas I think... I'm still inclined to blame the lack of real strong opinions (due to lack of good horses/form on show) than my own stake.

Hope that answers?

Fair play. With Cheltenham being my biggest betting event of the year (considerably), I know I feel more obliged/tempted to cover multiple horses in some races. This year I tried not to. Next year I’ll see if it’s a better tactic. Especially when NRNB comes into play.