Cheltenham 2019 - Analysis (What did we learn, with 2020 in mind)

[Middle_Of_March]

Thanks Q. Yes I recall you saying we have a similar pattern before. For a bit more context, I've deposited £119,656.12 and withdrawn £138,073.78 since the start of 2015 which is frightening really. I suppose I'm 'lucky' to have no dependants to allow me the luxury, and it is luxury!



Thank you Sir, I am quite proud of the handicaps although on the flip side it exposed a very poor graded and novice attempt this year. I'm inclined to put that down to lack of genuine form, as form is usually my (and a lot of peoples) go-to medium in finding winners?



Thanks MoM - look forward to the questions, be interested to see your answers too, as a chap newish to the game (relatively speaking)



Thanks TKP. I do feel much better having got all of it off my chest, back ready to re-watch the whole festival and start an attack on next year.


I am keen on the flat though too, and may start posting more regularly about that as we get through the long sunny days.

I am indeed still relatively new to it. Been betting only for about 5/6 years. And an only 20 years old. Every year I can feel my betting knowledge improving. The horse racing knowledge is pretty good. Been into racing since I was 8. But the choice of betting can be error ridden sometimes.

I know of mistakes I made this year which I will learn from. Silly betting mistakes.

I too felt a little disappointed this year with how the festival went. Benie falling costing me four figures was the painful one. Especially as I stood by the last when she came down.

Yeah I’ll reply to your post with my questions probably later this week. Good post though. Some excellent analysis from yourself.

[Middle_Of_March]

Yes, I could do that but it is now sorted so I'm free to carry on as I was.... was only a small sacrifice to make for a month and I'm through the woods now.

I don't like leaving the money in an account, it encourages lazy and ill-informed betting.


My actual next big target is Eurovision, which I'll be smashing to bits as per


....and yes, they last for 365 days, so I'm planning (although have failed so far) to 'store them' and just have a "lumpy" bet closer to the time?
Last year I had access to 4 sky accounts so they built up quite quickly... I'm down to 2 now and it won't take them long to cotton on nw that new debit cards need adding etc.... made hay while the sun shone though and it's not a major factor.

Rhinestone Cowboy is the man to ask regarding utilising 'free bets' and farming them though, he had a very effective (little bit time consuming) system that I'm sure he'll elaborate on if he's about...

I like watching Eurovision and the tactical voting and have always wondered if it was a decent betting event. If you posted your bets up for it on here, I for one would appreciate it.

I like betting on reality TV. The problem is that it’s usually £20 max bet per account on reality TV. I’m a celebrity get me out of here is particularly easy to win from imo. Rednapp at 10/1 this year for example. Value.

[Geordieboy83]

Excellent read Kev and Congratulations on the mortgage. Well this year was and absolute nightmare for myself. Had a pretty big accident on the Tuesday of fest and was injured pretty badly. As a result I am now off work for around a predicted 10 months! Although I am fortunate enough to be able to make a claim as wasn’t my fault, even if successful that does not help me at present. But life goes on and recovery process well underway. As things stand it means have to Tighten the purse strings for the time being.

One thing that takes the edge off is that I did still make an ok profit from ante-post so using that to live off as such.

Roll on October

[Kevloaf]

Oh no, that's not good!
More time to study the form now though? Silver lining?

[Geordieboy83]

Oh no, that's not good!
More time to study the form now though? Silver lining?

There is that, get to watch all racing. Not into flat at all, pure Nat Hunt, but still more time to go through and find news and quotes etc. Rewatch previous fests and races.

[ComplyOrDie]

Cracking stuff Kev, finally got round to reading it all tonight. Will hopefully post my answers to the questions posed on here when I find the time.

Glad you mentioned the mortgage thing, I am looking at getting one end of this year with the other half so this is interesting, though the majority of my gambling is done through family accounts and a non-primary bank account that I likely won't be declaring.

[The King Pimm]

Hi all,
I did notice that when I originally joined this forum at the start of February I never answered the joining questions so just a bit about me.
I’ve been following and betting on horse racing for 16 years. I got into it being a runner for the ‘old sweat’ Firemen at my first Fire Station in the valleys town of Abertillery. I used to spend my Saturday & Sunday afternoons putting their bets on at the local
Bookmakers and ended up following their bets and enjoyed the unpredictable winning. I’ve been visiting the Festival for the past 9 years from memory, going up on a Thursday. My favourite horse of all time was Alberta’s Run. I started getting serious about the Festival about 5 years ago and have made a decent profit at the past 3. I’ve really enjoyed this Forum and wish I had discovered it earlier. I only know a few people with a genuine interest in horse racing so have found this Forum very interesting and helpful.

I found your post Festival analysis very interesting Kev, it was very beneficial to see what figures you were committing too and getting back. I’ve only recently switched on to the points system of describing betting value commitment and completely understand why it’s generally used instead of monetary value but when you posted your financial commitments it helped me understand a few things in the build to the Festival. I did find your responses quite edgy and cranky at times especially closer to the start but now I know what you had committed I get it and understand more. Its way more than I had committed and I’m really glad you made a profit. I remember you stressing the importance of fact checking with non runners and the disastrous consequences of the equine flu outbreak but the ramifications would have been huge for someone in your position.

Me personally I had committed £2800 this year which was a £1000 increase from the previous year. I profited around £750 this year compared to £600 in 2018. So whilst I made a bigger profit in proportion to what I staked I didn’t do as well this year. My biggest mistakes this year were picking the wrong bankers and cashing out too early again. My break down of bets were mainly Multiples (Lucky 31’s & 63’s) with Bet 365 (£1800), Sky Request a Bets £750 and Singles with WH, PP and Betway. I made a £200 profit from my multiples, made a £150 loss on my Sky Bets and did well on my singles which were placed during the afternoon to cover market movers like Duc De Geneives, Beware The Bear, A Plus Tard, Chitabello, William Henry & Hazel Hill. My chosen bankers hurt me though, this year I chose Glen Forsa, BVD, BDD Ballyward, Defi Du Sol, Sire Du Berlais, Penhill, Posh Trish, Spirit of the Games, Sir Erec, Ucello Conti, Dallas De Picton and Magic Saint. At least 2 and often 3 of these featured in my Lucky 31’s and 63’s. Fortunately I had a number of high odd placed horses in these multiples to get me out the shit. I did frustratingly cash out on 2 Lucky 63’s which saw the last 2 legs win on one of them and placed horses at high odds both on the other meaning I missed out on around £1600!!

The races I profited from this year were the Superme (had the first 3), The Ballymore, The County Hurdle and The JLT. The races that hurt me most this year were the Arkle, Champion Hurdle, Mares Novice, Triumph, Albert Bartlett and Grand Annual .

Changes I hope to make and commit too for next years Festival is don’t Cash Out on any Multiples, make more of an effort to enter my own Request A Bets with Sky, keep some money back to bet on market mover singles on the day of the race, stick with your gut feeling (I had placed Silver Streak in a Bet slip twice in the build up to the Champion Hurdle race on the day at 100/1 for 3 places and 40/1 for 6 places and didn’t commit!!!)

I do believe money can be made from Antepost but I think I’ll save up and only commit on NRNB because I got stung on a number of bets placed in November & December.

I know I got criticised for stating my fear of backing Willie Mullins horses because of his concerning fallers stat but once again the majority of fallers I had were Mullins horses (BDD, Ballyward and Kemboy) and also don’t back the Gordon Elliot horses he is the most vocal about in the build up to Cheltenham. I will also back all the Mullins horses blind in the Mares Novice race!!

What I did like to see at this year’s Festival was that no trainer completely dominated, it was nice to see the races shared out. I was fearful that Mullins, Elliot and Henderson would clean up again which cannot be healthy for the Festival.

I generally struggle with the Flat and it cost me a lot of money last year so if you don’t mind I’ll be keeping an eye on your selections Kev and few of you without commentating as I don’t have much to offer on the Flat but interested in learning from you guys.

I’m sure i’ll never know but I’d love to find out how Scooby got on, his sheet of horses backed was incredible!!

A prediction I will make for next year’s festival is that the number of offers and value available will decease again. I think 1/5 odds will become the norm, I’ve noticed B365 offering a 1/5 more often since the Festival ended. From speaking to a few people I know with contacts within the bookmarking industry they are really struggling with people match betting. I know loads of people match betting with no interest in horse racing nor sport in general but do it as a part time job. It’s just numbers to them and they use multiple accounts to make decent profits with no risk attach but they have zero interest in the sport.

[Kevloaf]

I found your post Festival analysis very interesting Kev, it was very beneficial to see what figures you were committing too and getting back......

I did find your responses quite edgy and cranky at times especially closer to the start but now I know what you had committed I get it and understand more. Its way more than I had committed and I’m really glad you made a profit. I remember you stressing the importance of fact checking with non runners and the disastrous consequences of the equine flu outbreak but the ramifications would have been huge for someone in your position.

Interesting point. Any examples?

I generally struggle with the Flat and it cost me a lot of money last year so if you don’t mind I’ll be keeping an eye on your selections Kev and few of you without commentating as I don’t have much to offer on the Flat but interested in learning from you guys.

Hopefully get off to a bang with Magna Grecia in the 2000 Guineas

I’m sure i’ll never know but I’d love to find out how Scooby got on, his sheet of horses backed was incredible!!

It's obviously not my place to say the exact amounts but I did share a few messages after the festival and he did incredibly well. Life changing amount for sure.

Something to aspire towards for me, for sure.

[jono]

Brilliant post Kev. Loved reading that and yours King Pimm. I'll dip in and out probably with some bits and then some analysis of my own (will be far less in-depth!) but the first thought on the handicaps...

[B][U]
Excellent in the Handicaps – Had a pretty good return in the handicaps to be fair after a slow start. Obviously backed multiple runners in each but definitely an area I’m improving in. Had the 1-2 in the Close Brothers, the 1-2-3-4 in the Coral Cup, the 1-2-3 in the Fred Winter, The 1-2-5 in the Pertemps, the ‘lucky’ double with the winner and 3^rd in the Brown Plate with the winner of the Kim Muir, the 2-3 in the Kim Muir as well, the 1-2-3-4 in the County and the 1-2-3-5 in the Martin Pipe

I know a lot of people see them as mug bets but have you / thought of placing exactas / trifectas etc? Obviously not an antepost option but just looking through those results, and knowing that you have also hit the 1-2-3's in previous festivals (though maybe not as many)

Close Brothers 1-2 Exacta paid £32.30
Coral Cup 1-2-3-4 Trifecta paid £10,893
Fred Winter 1-2-3 Trifecta paid £410.19
Pertemps 1-2 Exacta paid £2,446.82
County 1-2-3-4 Trifecta paid £3,060.49
Martin Pipe 1-2-3 Trifecta paid £256.98

To a £1 stake.

The amount of horses you had backed in each race may not make it worthwhile (for example if you had 8 runners backed, trying to hit the 1-2-3 would cover 56 combinations, 10 backed 120) but the returns are generally strong and favourable and with the kind of record you have had in the handicaps over the last few seasons, could be worthwhile?

A type of bet I rarely utilise (every year I see the returns, make a note for the next year and forget) but i don't see them much worse than multiples really in the right circumstances. Even the likes of a Early Doors / DDP (24/1) and A Plus Tard / Tower Bridge (31/1) are strong odds for what were fairly obvious and short odd 1-2's

[Kevloaf]

Brilliant post Kev. Loved reading that and yours King Pimm. I'll dip in and out probably with some bits and then some analysis of my own (will be far less in-depth!) but the first thought on the handicaps...



I know a lot of people see them as mug bets but have you / thought of placing exactas / trifectas etc? Obviously not an antepost option but just looking through those results, and knowing that you have also hit the 1-2-3's in previous festivals (though maybe not as many)

Close Brothers 1-2 Exacta paid £32.30
Coral Cup 1-2-3-4 Trifecta paid £10,893
Fred Winter 1-2-3 Trifecta paid £410.19
Pertemps 1-2 Exacta paid £2,446.82
County 1-2-3-4 Trifecta paid £3,060.49
Martin Pipe 1-2-3 Trifecta paid £256.98

To a £1 stake.

The amount of horses you had backed in each race may not make it worthwhile (for example if you had 8 runners backed, trying to hit the 1-2-3 would cover 56 combinations, 10 backed 120) but the returns are generally strong and favourable and with the kind of record you have had in the handicaps over the last few seasons, could be worthwhile?

A type of bet I rarely utilise (every year I see the returns, make a note for the next year and forget) but i don't see them much worse than multiples really in the right circumstances. Even the likes of a Early Doors / DDP (24/1) and A Plus Tard / Tower Bridge (31/1) are strong odds for what were fairly obvious and short odd 1-2's

Hmmmm, yeah it does need considering. I'll check exactly how many I backed in each, what the stake would have been etc for this year and last year too - just to see.

With the amount staked in total, perhaps it's something I should 'set aside'.

I've done less than 50 bets like that in my life I'd say.... although one was the Melbourne Cup straight forecast when Joseph beat his Dad.


Jeez, before I even start - no way I'd have been down and this years would have definitely paid for the past couple of years at least?! - Will fact check this though

[Hurricane fly]

Didn’t scooby have the equivalent of 66pts (for him) on Paisley Park at 25/1

Can’t imagine 1pt is £5 either so the mind boggles!

[jono]

Regarding myself, I touched upon some of the questions here soon after the festival so i'll try not to repeat too much:

http://www.fatjockey.com/forum/showthread.php?15283-Up-or-down&p=110778#post110778

Certainly won't be as interesting a read as Kev. Laying out the whole week, with the stakes involved was fascinating really but my take...

1. How did you get on?

2019
Up by 59pts
46% ROI

Compares to previous years of:

2018
Up by 163pts
81.5% ROI

2017
Up by 25pts
37.3% ROI

2016
Up by 25pts
111.8% ROI

So i've had better seasons in terms of ROI but still more than happy. I had 2 very small antepost years before this but they were so minimal in relation I ignore them.

2. Will you all be continuing with ante post next year? / Will your approach change for 2019?

Continuing, absolutely. Actually struggled to give last season a proper go so will have my head in the game again next season.
Will my approach change; yes and no...i'll come back to this at the very end...

3. How did the yankees/multiples/ lucky 15's/placepots etc do for all?

Only 1 multiple landed which is pretty shocking, that one being a Min and Envoi Allen DRF going onto Altior and Tiger Roll at the festival. That 1 winning fourfold meant I finished +4pts on multiples. Looking back at the 2 years prior (barely did any in 2016):

2018 +87 pts
2017 +5 pts

But it'll be something I continue. 2019 and 2017 were disappointing with the returns only just outweighing the stakes but with these bets it only takes 1 or 2 horses for the outcome to shift dramatically. Benie des Dieux being the primary 'tipping point' this year which was extremely unlucky. For me the reward in these outweigh the risk and despite the slightly subdued viewpoint on 2/3 years, they've still been in profit.

4. What advice or lessons can be learnt from this year (ante post and/or on the day)

I've just been reading back the first post I did on this in 2017 after my first year on the forum. Kev mentions it in his post but giving the favourite or fancied horses on their attempt at a race continues was something flagged 2 years ago. Really does make it a worthwhile thing to look back on these threads again as the season starts / progresses and the festival looms closer.

(Not ones i'm necessarily agreeing with or think but...) Horses that could apply next season:
Give Me A Copper (Ultima)
Uradel (Coral)
Footpad (Ryanair)
Janika (Plate) (unlikely due to OR)
Whiskey Sour (County)
Presenting Percy (Gold Cup)
Stand Up and Fight (Foxhunters)
Magic Saint (Grand Annual)

'Top' Jockeys - both Le Breuil and Any Second Now I passed up despite having arguably 2 of the best amateur jockeys the festival has witnessed. Even more unbelievably, I had backed Kilfrum Cross in the Kim Muir almost purely on the booking of Derek O'Connor. To then cash out that bet and NOT back Any Second Now...just plain stupidly...enough said on that one... You just have to back the horses that these 2 are riding even if you feel the horses form may not justify it imo.

Cash Out - Only 3 of these backfired to varying degrees for me throughout the season.

1. Envoi Allen. As per us all. This really was unlucky though. He won on Sunday 2nd December when GE confirmed he wouldn't run at the festival. On Monday 3rd December just the very next day Malone Road was ruled out. Now if that setback to MR had been announced just 12 or so hours earlier i'm sure everyone and certainly for myself i'd have left the 33/1 bet rolling. So it added extra insult. Perhaps we need to start treating Elliott with the same cautionary stance at Willie Mullins. For me i'm still inclined to take GE at his word for now though.

2. Vinndication. As per EA - going on the trainers word I cashed out 3 bets at 33/1 for the JLT. Only to see him line up at much shorter odds. It turned out he didn't challenge the front pair so no harm done but would have been a kick in the teeth if he had of done so!

3. Kilfrum Cross. As pointed out in (4) above. Backed on the basis of Derek O'Connor riding. He then ran a blinder in second. The EW bet would have landed if I had of kept the bet. (And Brought back slight shades of deja vu with the result of Nativer River being done by JP's Minella Rocco - if you believe that DO'C had the provisional ride on KC then again his choice justified by a fine margin)

So from those 3 bets, I would have had a winner and a second place. BUT the opportunity of Cash Out is 100% a positive still and these 3 stand up little against the amount of successful cashed out bets. Every cash out ended up being backed on another horse but the flexibility it offers, especially at the early stage of the season is a huge help. I know Ista is one of few that doesn't have this luxury of a bet365 account and it's one i'll continue to be happy to use whilst I can. I'll continue to within reason trust a trainer on targets as well next year despite those 2 examples.

5. Your biggest mistakes / The races/horses you got wrong

Firstly my biggest mistake is not always looking back at previous festivals throughout the year and taking what i've learnt onboard. Far too easy to get swept away and take in new information without going back over the old. But a few to note...

1. Sire du Berlais. Missed his price. Stubbornness to not back him despite an obvious plot at a short price. Could have got 6/1 the night before but didn't have time to look that evening. Went off 4/1. 40 minutes earlier I was snapping the 3/1 up on Defi du Seuil. The JLT of course was basically a 2 horse match so comparing it to a 24 runner handicap isn't fair but a 4/1 winner still shouldn't be passed up. Should have at the very least gone in a multiple or two.

2. Frodon. Got plenty of races wrong but this was the one I really didn't see. Never thought he could be a grade 1 winner at the festival. I'm still not quite sold on him. And still look back thinking if Road to Respect had of just jumped a clear round...but he beat them all fair and square. Super horse. Not sure i'll ever get him right.

3. 4 Miler. I very rarely back more than 2 or 3 horses per race. One of the few races that I tend to break this trend on is the 4 miler due to getting the jockey bookings down. This ended up a disaster. Bacardys was a project for this race all Winter for me that never materialised. And Mall Dini wasn't entered. Despite those 2 non runners I went into the race with Ok Corral, Ballyward, Discorama and Jerrysback at super prices. Ballyward had a horrible fatal fall. Ok Corral couldn't get near them and Discorama and Jerrysback were backed Win Only. Add to that just a horrible race to watch. Now having the top 3 in the market at big prices IS 100% a good way to play the race. So I just have to take the result on the chin. Repeat that kind of selections (as most on here did) and i'll be up more than down but I really should have backed EW and covered Jamie Codd's ride. For a race that I backed 6 runners in to get no returns though is poor no matter how I spin it

2. (continued) Will your approach change for 2019?

Most probably, yes.

For the 2018 Festival I made a point to back more EW shots, something that I was very much against the years before. That ended up being my best year yet. I swayed back towards Win only for the majority of my bets for 2019 for various reasons - mainly a lack of funds and focus. There's obviously more than 1 factor to why 2018 was so good for me but it may not be coincidence that it occurred after backing more EW shots. I can note plenty of horses who if I had kept that approach would have come in this year in the places. So I really should be looking at more EW bets I feel for next season.

I feel like i'm on a never ending routine of house renovation which takes up a lot of funds that could otherwise be used towards this. But I will be able to increase my overall stake again. And based on the 4 years prior I feel it is justified to do so. I have no issue admitting I probably have a lot less of an overall stake than most on the forum but would like to make the next step up so to speak. A question for all, how did you approach this, if you did?

- The obvious would be to just back my opinion stronger by increasing my stake to say 2pts a selection.

- The alternative is to back more horses. Not in the sense of creating a book - but just being more flexible through the season on multiple horses. As noted earlier on, I pretty much always back 2-3 horses a race. A look at 2019 shows my singles inc. NR's were: (any race also included)

Supreme - 6 backed / 6 runners (WH offer inflated this)
Arkle - 4 / 0
Ultima - 2
CH - 2 / 1
Mares 0
NHC - 6 / 4
Close Bros - 3 / 3

Ballymore - 3 backed / 2 runners
RSA - 4 / 4
Coral - 3 / 3
CC - 1 / 1
XC - 2 / 2
FW - 3 / 3
Bumper - 1 / 0

JLT - 4 backed / 2 runners
Pertemps - 2 / 2
Ryanair - 4 / 3
Stayers - 4 / 3
Plate - 2 / 2
Mares Nov - 1 / 1
Kim Muir - 3 / 2

Triumph - 3 backed / 2 runners
County - 2 / 2
AB - 2 / 2
Gold Cup - 3 / 3
Foxhunter - 1 / 1
MP - 1 / 1
GA - 2 / 2

And there's plenty of times through the season where i'll want or be tempted to back a horse but hold off. So instead of backing say the same selections much stronger, instead spread the selections out.

Of course much will depend on what horses I fancy. Another factor between the difference between 2018 and 2019 festivals for me was just that I had a stronger opionion on a selection of horses than I did last yeatr. So it'll certainly be fluid and not set in stone.
I'm thinking a mix between the 2 but interested to hear opinions...

[Middle_Of_March]

Losers live in the past. Winners learn from the past and enjoy working in the present toward the future.

I wanted to go with Rafiki from the Lion King “Oh yes, the past can hurt, but the way I see it – you can either run from it, or learn from it” but it doesn’t fit as well as Denis Waitley’s quote above.

Those who have been around for more than 12 months will probably /hopefully remember this thread last year, which follows on from the one jono started in 2017. Worth reading through again, and highly recommended for any new members to read through. http://www.fatjockey.com/forum/showt...-2019-in-mind)

This will be a long post. It will bend a few of the forum ‘unwritten rules’ (Mentioning amounts instead of points and some unavoidable after-timing the main two) which I apologise for however it is impossible for me to provide proper context or analysis without both, which hopefully makes sense if you make it to the end. (Jesus, the end, I’ve been writing for 15 minutes and not even properly got to the start yet).


Ultimately, this post if for me to analyse my own 2019 festival and writing it down will help me do that – that said, I very much welcome and comments, questions (and to some extent criticism) and I hope others answer the questions below too so we can all get something out of it 


So, taking the questions from the thread last year

1. How did you get on?
2. Will you all be continuing with ante post next year? / Will your approach change for 2019?
3. How did the yankees/multiples/ lucky 15's/placepots etc do for all?
4. What advice or lessons can be learnt from this year (ante post and/or on the day)
5. Your biggest mistakes / The races/horses you got wrong
6. Other points


1. How did you get on?

The cold, hard facts:
2019 Cheltenham:
Total Stake: £21,730.42
Total Return: £24,100.56
Total Profit: £2370.14 (+237 pts) - ROI 10.91%
To give that a little bit of context I’ll add it to my previous festivals:

2019 - +237 pts (ROI 10.91%) - from 2173 pts staked

2018 - +351 pts (ROI 26.48%) - from 1326 pts staked

2017 - +202 pts (ROI 19.59%) - from 1033 pts staked

2016 - +147 pts (ROI 37.70%) - from 391 pts staked

2015 - +84 pts (ROI 50.08%) - from 165 pts staked

2014 - +41 pts (ROI 27.79%) - from 150 pts staked

2013 - +8 pts (ROI 3.93%) - from 209 pts staked

2012 - +20 pts (ROI 28.37%) - from 70 pts staked

2011 - +8 pts (ROI 15.84%) - from 50 pts staked

On the face of it, I’d say it went well. It was the second highest total profit I’ve ever had, so I can’t grumble. I have however, felt quite flat about it since it all finished. I had 5 years growth in terms of profit year-on-year and this is obviously a trend I’m striving towards, so I’m disappointed that has dipped on last year.
The obvious reason for that is the ROI is down at 10.91% (still MUCH better than any bank would offer) but it’s my worst by a long way since 2013 (and that was back when I was only backing one horse per race, two at a push).
My total stake increased a mighty 63.87% on last year. This was a calculated decision based upon analysis last year and effectively I increased the value of a ‘point’ from £10 to £20 which accounts for the rise in stake. What I was obviously hoping for though was that reflecting in the profit which it hasn’t. I was still profitable so it hasn’t been a bad decision by any stretch, but ultimately it wasn’t a huge success either and staking over 20 grand is the absolute limit of what I can afford realistically without any unforeseen big wins. I had a very profitable ‘flat season’ last year whereby I’d increased the standard bet from £10 to £20 and that helped with the increase in stake too, but I’m not (and wasn’t) planning to stake much more than £15,000 this year. More on that below!

Hi Kev - great post. I’ve a few questions and points I’ll make. My own analysis for my festival will come after the jumps season ends so probably in two or three weeks time.

Firstly, whilst the ROI didn’t improve again, it’s still at a very decent level which I’m sure all of us would be pleased with.. Do you set an amount you want to win, as in a percentage target? I see you said you were aiming to bet £15k but bet 20k. Would you say because your stake rose from £10 to £20 for a single point, and therefore had a fair bit more on every race, you were inclined to cover more horses because of the worry of losing that higher amount on a race? Therefore your ROI dropped? Do you see what I mean - I’m not sure I’ve explained it too well.

[Middle_Of_March]

2. Will you all be continuing with ante post next year? / Will your approach change for 2020?
Yes, and maybe?
As I said last year - I will absolutely be carrying on with ante-post for Cheltenham - I do believe it is harder than it used to be, however I do not believe ante-post punting is dead which I hear all too often. I think enough of us on here have proved that isn't the case!

In terms of winners, I had 19/28 – which is actually very poor for me and the method I use. I thought I’d ‘played it safe’ this year which is partly true, but going in to more detail, I backed some on the day and ‘not ante-post’! Notably, Hazel Hill 7/2 (about 30 seconds before the off), Ch’tibello 12/1 the night before, a top up on Sire Du Berlais at 6/1 night before, Altior (4/5 special offer) on the day, William Henry (35/1 winner, did post that selection/reasoning on here in a fledging attempt at covering up this after-timing), Le Breuil 9/1 (very much a spur of the moment safety cover bet as I thought I had the 4 miler by the balls), A Plus Tard 15/2 on the Saturday (declaration stage), Roksana 9/1 (on the day, and did the Hugh Taylor double with Duc Des Genievres). £10 e/w 47/1 paid £718.75
On the face of it, that would mean ante post I’d only have had 11/28 winners. That is a shockingly bad return for someone who makes a book in some races! The above also doesn’t count the biggest return I had from a single bet, which again was placed on the day. I had an each way double(s) on: Siruh Du Lac & Spiritofthegames with Any Second Now. SDL and Spirit we’re winner and placed in the Plate, so both were rolling on to Any Second Now (who I’d made a case for and backed earlier in the season but he didn’t win) but I thought was too short! £15 e/w (2x £7.50 ew) paid £941.25.
So that is £1680.00 back from two each way doubles placed on the day. Now that is NOT how I planned to make the majority of my profit, it’s lucky, unreliable and a little embarrassing for somebody who spent as much time on this forum as I do!
There was also a Defi Du Seuil/Frodon double that paid £390 and an Altior, Tiger Roll, Envoi Allen Trixie that paid £442
However, I do have to factor in the fact that the strategy I have, of backing more than one at bigger prices does allow me to have these ‘saver’ bets and therefore, it is a lot safer than it sounds and effectively I have made my own luck by having a nice book to start with by the time the day-of-race markets form.

What can I learn from that? Well I’m torn to be honest. I didn’t fully go through with that ‘covering’ strategy or safety approach. Some of the ones that ‘got away’ that (in the 20:20 of hindsight) I should have backed include:

Espoir D’allen – now this was a really stupid one – I had the £25 ‘free’ from 365 and I had this in the slip at 18/1 win only. I already had 5 backed in the 10 runner race (Apples 6s and 8s, Buveur 11/4 and the £25 free on him at 11/4, Laurina 12s, Sharjah 15s, Melon 22s. I should have at least put £10 ew on the other runners, but I couldn’t really see past one of “the big 3” winning it. I’d have been up regardless of who won and in previous years I’d have done that, as ultimately, my ‘strong opinion’ was that the front 3 will win the race…which was wrong – but I was in a position where I could have made profit despite being wrong… which is surely the sensible if not ‘too safe’ an option.
Envoi Allen – He’ll have to go in here, as I cashed out the 33/1 for a profit of £60 but I was reluctant to back him again, and couldn’t bring myself to in a single. I don’t regret cashing it out based on the information I had at the time…but it’s a frustrating one nevertheless.
Minella Indo – Livid about this one. Again, in the 365 bet slip… why I didn’t even put £5 e/w on I cannot remember. I briefly remember thinking along the lines of “Well Allaho has him covered and I’m on that at 40/1 e/w” but even so, I usually always back the horse that’s second to one I fancy if they re-oppose (at the right price) in case they finish 1-2 again. In this case I’d have gotten lucky with it but a big error on my part. I’d backed some others with the additional places late on the day too and just didn’t think clearly enough. Really frustrating and poor judgement on my part.

Before making a decision on whether or not I’d change, I should also focus on some of the ‘good points/successes’ from the ante-post too…

Supreme / Klassical Dream – Long time forumites will know this race has been a minefield for me in the last two years. I’ve ended up forced to make a losing book in this race (with non-runners) and it was highlighted as a race I need to be more careful with in 2017/2018 and 2019. Fortunately this year I got it right. I only had -£67 in non runners (2018 was -£223 and 2017 was -£190). Obviously some of that is luck but I was more selective and bar Al Dancer (who I didn’t really fancy) I had decent prices on the market principles. Angel’s Breath 33/1, Klassical Dream 25/1, Aramon 48/1. I also fancied Thomas Darby and Itchy Feet at bigger prices 25/1 and 40/1 from quite a way out as plenty of us highlighted on here. I made a profit cashing out too (only £30) but that flexibility from 365 certainly helped so as long as that’s still an option I’ll use it – although with £30 it’s hardly life changing if I lost it (granted it’s hard to know if I’d still have backed the right horses without that security) – I think so though. A great start to the week with a 1-2-

RSA – By the absolute balls (like I know many of us did) – this race is an example of how I like to approach ante post at Cheltenham and it working - The 1-2-3 backed at 28/1, 16/1 & 12/1 and 22/1 in Topofthegame, Santini and Delta Work. Cover bets on the other runners but all at big e/w prices so a small price to pay (what I should have done in the CH etc)

JLT – This ended uyp being a key race for me as I went quite strongly in on Defi Du Seuil on the day and the night before however I did have him at 15/1 ante post and Lostintranslation at 25/1 – as well as Mengli Khan at 33/1 who filled the placed. I backed the other runners too, very similar to the RSA and a cracking result.

Stayers Hurdle – Won’t be the only one with this, but I think the biggest ante post winner and biggest single I had was Paisley Park at 25/1 - £25 e/w paid £831.25. Quite satisfying as Penhill was my main selection for this race but because PP went off fav, I was able to go fishing and managed to make a case and back Sam Spinner on the day – which if I didn’t have the fancy price about PP I might not have been as inclined to do (impossible to tell, but I like the angle)

Mares Novice – Now this may be perceived one of two ways, genius or fool! When the decs came out and were posted on here, I backed every single Mullins runner NRNB. Unfortunately Paddy weren’t BOG but Eglantine Du Seuil 20/1 and Concertista 33/1 made this a profitable race. I didn’t expect them all to run, but backing Mullins blind paid off and I didn’t fancy Epatante at all. There is an element of luck involved though, as hindsight has shown us Honeysuckle was probably a knocking good bet in this (Quevega will be pleased/gutted at the same time!). I know Scooby absolutely had this one off too on the day at a wild price on the exchange which eclipses what I’ve done, but it is all relative of course.


Triumph – Best Odds Guaranteed absolutely bailed me out here, backed Pentland Hills at 9/1 (as had over £5k returns from either Sir Erec or Pic D’Orhy) so thought it worthwhile in a relatively small field to create the book. He won at an SP off 20/1 – definitely a case of it better being lucky than good. Highlights the benefit of BOG though for those of us who still get it!

Gold Cup – Well documented that I was in a good position in this race as I’d backed Presenting Percy at 40/1. Due to multiples a win for Presenting Certainty would have been around £8000 for me, but alas, Al Boum Photo was one I’d also been on-side with 7th May 2018 at 33/1. I’d also backed Anibale Fly at 66/1 in 2018 too – so despite Percy not giving me the big returns, it was a very good race for me – and without a doubt one of the best ante-post betting races of the week.

Martin Pipe – The final ‘good’ ante-post story, Early Doors 17.52/1, Defi Bleu 25/1 won and placed. Also the 2^nd, Dallas Des Pictons would have been over £3000 due to some multiples but again, you don’t complain at a 1-2-3 in any race ante-post!


Honourable mentions to: City Island 16/1 – Similar to the above really, didn’t form a really strong opinion at any stage and City Island wasn’t my first choice but 16/1 winners are welcome!
Altior – The banker of the week and had the 15.5/1 double with Enable in the Arc rolling over again – definitely an angle I’ll be using again through the flat season if I can find horses I really fancy at circa 5/1.
Tiger Roll – 7/1 ante post – should have put more on!


On balance, I don’t think I’ll change my approach, going through “the good” has lifted my spirits a little, I think I’d been taking for granted the successes and dwelling too much on the mistakes. Be very interested in other people’s thoughts though, as ultimately, with the amount I’ve staked, I should be getting to a stage where I either need to reign it in a little (as 21k staked is pushing the limited of what I can physically afford to get on) OR whether I kick on and try and make it a second income officially. I’m £18,636.56 up since 1/1/2015 (When I started recording every bet) which I’m proud of but I need to be making that tax free a year, and it’s been 4 years… so any advice on that front, please don’t be shy!

For what it’s worth on this section, I think the Envoi Allen situation for yourself and Faugheen Machine was just very bad luck. I think things like that will just happen occasionally and we have to not dwell.

I should take my own advice as I ended up down from the festival this year but would’ve been well up if Benie Des Dieux stayed on here feet. That fall haunts me. A really hard one to take. I was at the final hurdle when she came down and literally three seconds before she fell I said aloud ‘just please please don’t fall’. Ecstasy to agony in one hit.

[Middle_Of_March]

3. How did the yankees/multiples/ lucky 15's/placepots etc do for all?

Staked £4456.89
Returned £3640.06
Profit -£750.91 loss

Non-runners equated to -£709.65 from multiples. Total Non-runners was -£2585.27

I made a loss on these last year too… I’ve had ante-post multiples (and multiples) since 2014. 2 out of 5 years have been profitable, the other 3 similar losses. This is quite interesting, as on the face of it you’d assume I’d want to knock these on the head… however, I don’t.

I was more selective with them this year, and focussed on a smaller group of horses. Ultimately, I was hit with a few non-runners. Penhill, Cilaos Emery, Samcro(chasing), AND then horses that just didn’t win – Presenting Percy, Sir Erec, Pic D’Orhy, Buveur D’air, Ok Corral and Benie Des Dieux. However, if ANY of those 9 horses had won, I’d have had a minimum of £2000 from, rising to £8000 for some. (Possibly Le Richebourg too, and to some extent Santini!)
It’s a calculated risk that I’ll continue to take, unless someone can point out why that wouldn’t be so sensible?
Cilaos Emery hurt the most in hindsight…and I know I’m not the only one.

I’ve already mentioned my best multiples in the section above and they weren’t ante post… so overall, you wouldn’t say it was a success but I’m reluctant to change. I still don’t ‘chase the huge’ pay-out enough, and got nowhere near with the ones I tried, but I will have a think about that going forward.

I know a lot of people in the game say multiples are just not the way to go antepost. My numbers are with that as I often finish down from them. That’s because I can’t resist the yankees and the Canadians as well as the occasional Heinz/Suoer Heinz. I almost expect to finish down from them every year.

But the thing is, the one year where the right ones win, it’s gonna pay for them for many many years - potentially life changing. I had Canadians of Sire Du Berlais, Klassical Dream, Tiger Roll, Altior and Defi De Seuil over the week. Frustratingly, I never had them five all together though. But one year I will. And the results will be golden.

With you, as someone who covers more horses than me per race, I think the cover multiples are a very decent idea. That trixie with Envoi Allen for example. It’s a smart bet.