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  1. #51
    Thanks Kev (and others) for your post-mortem, was a great read, especially when I was on a long train trip by myself. It's so refreshing to see such transparent self analysis in a game where it's far too easy to exaggerate success. Anyway here's me:

    1. How did you get on?

    First up let me start by saying a big thanks to all the excellent posters on here as nearly all my bets come from tips via this forum. I know the old adage is you should always go with your own opinion, but my results over the last couple of years question that somewhat. Of course I am developing my own opinions on horses, but I'm a long way from backing my judgement the way I back other people's.

    Total real money outlay: 135 points (includes approx 15% used to 'farm' free bets)
    Total free bets: 165 point
    Total return: 440 points

    ROI on Real Money: 225% ??? I think
    ROI on Total outlay including free bets: 47% ???

    Should add that while those figures are exclusively mine I placed exactly the same bets for my best mate, so you can imagine he was quite pleased. I do all the work but I get access to all his accounts for free bet farming including many I have lost. He's getting a good deal no doubt and will have to renegotiate next year....haha

    A quick word on free bet farming. In my first season I funded the whole of my antepost on free bets, by either betting them directly or converting them to cash on the machine and them betting on horses at Cheltenham with other bookies at bigger prices. I mentioned at the time that it was time consuming but worthwhile as I doubled my total outlay at the Festival. This season I have quickened the process by:

    a) As I was also betting with my own money not wasting time converting free bets into real money, but just placing them on horses for Cheltenham
    b) Not spending as much time staking the qualifying bets for 0 loss when laying off on the machine, hence the 15% real money loss indicated in the figures above.

    One final word on Betway's free bets offer. On my mate's account I racked up around 1,200 GBP of free bets before the account was essentially closed, all of which could be used on their Festival markets. The NFL offer in particular that I mention on the Free Bets page was awesome. It's also not an account you are going to miss for antepost betting so losing it after taking them for a few quid (960 as it turns out) was fine by us.

    2. Will you be continuing with antepost betting?

    Absolutely, and I'll be raising my stakes also, although Kev's post means I won't be getting too far ahead of myself in that respect

    3. How did the multis go?
    Placed few, and had even less going into the Festival after cashing out loads with Bet365. Unsurprisingly I had 0 returns. I will though likely place a few more next year due to 365 cash out offers. As if 1 horse's price comes in but another runs rubbish and goes out you can stil, cash out for your stake. I will continue to place small stake cross-sport multis where the final leg is a Cheltenham horse.

    4. What advice or lessons learned?
    a) Mention again the free bets as that really does reduce the risk for new punters.
    b) Use 365 for particular races as cash out is fantastic offer, Hills generally for any race as best prices, making sure to use the daily boost.
    c) Keep your eyes peeled for horses in the any race market in the early part of the season when bookies may not be aware of intended targets, examples include Cilaos Emery 28/1, Stand up and Fight and Shantou Flyer at 35/1 all flagged by Scooby. I know they didn't win but all represented cracking value

    5. Biggest mistakes?

    Wasted far too many free bets on the Supreme and Arkle, as things turned out I did manage a profit on the first race and broke even on the second (including free bets). Backed a load of horses in both races and although was unlucky like so many others with the Arkle non-runners I could have had a poor start. One good thing I did was start laying in the Arkle just before the non-runners kicked in and taking that very defensive position helped me break even for the race. I intend to take far fewer fliers for the Supreme especially
    Last edited by Rhinestone_Cowboy; 05-02-2019 at 12:40 AM.

  2. #52
    Friday

    Triumph - L
    had four running.

    Cashed AP best on Sir Erec and put it all back on and more at NRNB.
    Had great position on Que destin 15-1, Adjali 75-1, Pic D'ohry 22-1
    Just went as bad as could be expected really. But the winner is clearly very useful judging on how he won and followed up at Aintree (to my cost again).
    First really big bet to go down due to the unfortunate injury and enough said.

    County - L (picked up on Whiskey Sour ew 16-1)
    had 5 in this

    Obviously really competitive and the Skeltons' clearly need to be watched (probably overbet though) as they seem to know what's required in this race.


    Bartlett - L
    had 5 in this

    Similar to triumph, as I was already ahead for the week I looked at the triumph and this race and thought I had it pretty well covered.
    Derrinross 50-1 (xmas AP bet, price available a good ten minutes after it won at Limerick in a very good trial for this)
    Alloha 20-1
    Birchdale 27-1
    CoF 10-1
    Lisnagar Oscar 7-1

    I'm not sure this race is as strong as previous year but after watching the Minella Indo race at punchestown yesterday I may be wrong.
    But I'm still not sure I want to cover more horses for next year if in same position as you could go on forever really.

    She was sat snug all the way round at Cheltenham and I think she could be champion in waiting our Rachel.
    Having backed her at 160-1 and 125-1 for top jockey I think this was a damn good bet and was probably the one bet I was most pleased with for the whole festival, as I correctly thought the powerful stables would share rides out and the jockeys like walsh would not ride as many as previously. She actually picked up some decent rides and had honeysuckle turned up and cuneo lasted the trip out and other if's and buts she'd have gone even closer.
    With Ruby quitting yesterday it will be interesting to see if any of the big guns sign her up to the stable, she actually reminds me of how Ruby rides so Willie will surely have a word.

    Gold Cup - W Al Boum Photo 33-1 NRNB
    had 5 in this I think

    Getting fed up now, and nothing much to say about the rest of the races.

    Lost in next two but won on last with a decent NRNB at 20-1ew on Early Doors.


    Overall, and this is approximate as I stopped keeping records the day before the festival, due to my tracker being a word document on my work laptop.

    I estimate I lost approx 70pts antepost NR's

    I had approx 50pts in multiples - Only one to pay returned approx 51pts - A pre Dublin festival yankee that included Al Boum Photo & Klassical Dream. Both 16-1 from memory. So call it evens.

    Then I had approx 514 pts run for me + 70 lost already.
    Returning approx 808 back.

    Think that's about 38% ROI.

    Bit less than I originally thought straight after the festival as I was gauging it on my balances across the bookmakers I use, but must have underestimated the number of returns I got back from NRNB and a decent run up to the festival in everyday betting.

    Overall I was very happy with how I performed and was happy with the value I managed to get and the judgement calls on the whole.

    There was a sufficient variety of on the day bets, AP bets and NRNB all paying off so I think I'll be following a similar path next year. This year was my first proper go AP (other than just a handful of best prior to NRNB) and three or four of these paid off nicely.

    Think I'll still have smaller bets though as this seems sensible as not all the evidence is known the earlier you place a bet, so low stakes means less risk. I prefer to risk more when I know more.

    I will continue to bet based on value and not on who the likely winner is, as the races have many potential winners and it's impossible to be that good a judge. Although Judgement of a horses potential and ability is a key factor also.

    In both these respects I was happy with how it went down, as this festival had it's usual share of head scratching results, without numerous runners in each race I would have struggled to make money for sure.

    Not sure I'll do much differently for next year, as I said I would last year and ignored it so don't see the point. I'll just make each decision as it comes along.

    I might do more AP multiples with cash out (as it surprised me how much these offered before a run. especially each way trebles etc) but I'm reluctant in case I lose the account or they stop the concession suddenly.

    although I have slightly increased my stakes now but will continue to have small 1pt bets, and occasional 30-40 pt bets also.
    Last edited by quevega; 05-02-2019 at 11:17 AM.

  3. #53
    Champ Kevloaf's Avatar
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    Thanks for all that Q - enjoyable read.

    You do seem quite set in your ways reading the last bit, but it is working

    I can't say I'm a fan of approx analysis but appreciate it isn't realistic for everyone to do (and not worthwhile for plenty)

  4. #54
    Champ Kevloaf's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Rhinestone_Cowboy View Post
    Thanks Kev (and others) for your post-mortem, was a great read, especially when I was on a long train trip by myself. It's so refreshing to see such transparent self analysis in a game where it's far too easy to exaggerate success. Anyway here's me:

    1. How did you get on?

    First up let me start by saying a big thanks to all the excellent posters on here as nearly all my bets come from tips via this forum. I know the old adage is you should always go with your own opinion, but my results over the last couple of years question that somewhat. Of course I am developing my own opinions on horses, but I'm a long way from backing my judgement the way I back other people's.

    Total real money outlay: 135 points (includes approx 15% used to 'farm' free bets)
    Total free bets: 165 point
    Total return: 440 points

    ROI on Real Money: 225% ??? I think
    ROI on Total outlay including free bets: 47% ???

    Should add that while those figures are exclusively mine I placed exactly the same bets for my best mate, so you can imagine he was quite pleased. I do all the work but I get access to all his accounts for free bet farming including many I have lost. He's getting a good deal no doubt and will have to renegotiate next year....haha

    A quick word on free bet farming. In my first season I funded the whole of my antepost on free bets, by either betting them directly or converting them to cash on the machine and them betting on horses at Cheltenham with other bookies at bigger prices. I mentioned at the time that it was time consuming but worthwhile as I doubled my total outlay at the Festival. This season I have quickened the process by:

    a) As I was also betting with my own money not wasting time converting free bets into real money, but just placing them on horses for Cheltenham
    b) Not spending as much time staking the qualifying bets for 0 loss when laying off on the machine, hence the 15% real money loss indicated in the figures above.

    One final word on Betway's free bets offer. On my mate's account I racked up around 1,200 GBP of free bets before the account was essentially closed, all of which could be used on their Festival markets. The NFL offer in particular that I mention on the Free Bets page was awesome. It's also not an account you are going to miss for antepost betting so losing it after taking them for a few quid (960 as it turns out) was fine by us.

    2. Will you be continuing with antepost betting?

    Absolutely, and I'll be raising my stakes also, although Kev's post means I won't be getting too far ahead of myself in that respect

    3. How did the multis go?
    Placed few, and had even less going into the Festival after cashing out loads with Bet365. Unsurprisingly I had 0 returns. I will though likely place a few more next year due to 365 cash out offers. As if 1 horse's price comes in but another runs rubbish and goes out you can stil, cash out for your stake. I will continue to place small stake cross-sport multis where the final leg is a Cheltenham horse.

    4. What advice or lessons learned?
    a) Mention again the free bets as that really does reduce the risk for new punters.
    b) Use 365 for particular races as cash out is fantastic offer, Hills generally for any race as best prices, making sure to use the daily boost.
    c) Keep your eyes peeled for horses in the any race market in the early part of the season when bookies may not be aware of intended targets, examples include Cilaos Emery 28/1, Stand up and Fight and Shantou Flyer at 35/1 all flagged by Scooby. I know they didn't win but all represented cracking value

    5. Biggest mistakes?

    Wasted far too many free bets on the Supreme and Arkle, as things turned out I did manage a profit on the first race and broke even on the second (including free bets). Backed a load of horses in both races and although was unlucky like so many others with the Arkle non-runners I could have had a poor start. One good thing I did was start laying in the Arkle just before the non-runners kicked in and taking that very defensive position helped me break even for the race. I intend to take far fewer fliers for the Supreme especially
    Glad you had a good week, RC

    Interesting point about backing your own opinion too..... can often get misunderstood.

  5. #55
    I don’t have a lot more to add to this thread (most of my own analysis has come in my replies to Kev on this thread) but I would personally just like to say Thankyou to everyone who’s contributed over the year on all the individual threads and also on the Forum Yankee threads. I do read all the replies even if I don’t put your suggestions in the final yankee all the time.

    I’m glad the idea went down well and keeps us all going during the summer months.

  6. #56
    Quote Originally Posted by Kevloaf View Post
    Thanks for all that Q - enjoyable read.

    You do seem quite set in your ways reading the last bit, but it is working

    I can't say I'm a fan of approx analysis but appreciate it isn't realistic for everyone to do (and not worthwhile for plenty)
    Always open to new ideas mate, just know myself too well now to think I can stop the bad habits.

    A Fool who knows he's a fool, is a wise fool. (just made that up) - probably been said in Japan few centuries ago.

    The figures will be fairly accurate, as the numbers suggest. Just wouldn't be fair to claim they are 100% as I do not record every bet amount and odds when just sat at home on the day of the race or at the races myself (so memory is required for these).
    All AP & NRNB are logged on a word document, but this is kept away from the wifey at work.

  7. #57
    Champ Kevloaf's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by quevega View Post
    Always open to new ideas mate, just know myself too well now to think I can stop the bad habits.

    A Fool who knows he's a fool, is a wise fool. (just made that up) - probably been said in Japan few centuries ago.

    The figures will be fairly accurate, as the numbers suggest. Just wouldn't be fair to claim they are 100% as I do not record every bet amount and odds when just sat at home on the day of the race or at the races myself (so memory is required for these).
    All AP & NRNB are logged on a word document, but this is kept away from the wifey at work.
    Haha, might catch on... I am a wise fool - a bit like Barters Hill?!

    I've got a friend of mine who has expressed an interest in taking my 4.5 years worth of data and creating a database on it, to allow me to search/query and essentially properly analyse it... (seeing which stakes I've done best from, what kind of odds, winning/losing streaks) etc...

    I'm scared.

  8. #58
    Quote Originally Posted by Kevloaf View Post
    Haha, might catch on... I am a wise fool - a bit like Barters Hill?!

    I've got a friend of mine who has expressed an interest in taking my 4.5 years worth of data and creating a database on it, to allow me to search/query and essentially properly analyse it... (seeing which stakes I've done best from, what kind of odds, winning/losing streaks) etc...

    I'm scared.
    Sounds like statistics to me.
    And I think I know how you'll view most of those.

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