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  1. #1
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    Question Traditional racing lines. Race A 2019 ---> Race B 2020

    Hi guys,

    With Kemboy being 10/1 for the 2020 GC I was looking to put on a ridiculous early punt but fancied putting three or four horses together. Seeing the performers from this year in the various races I was wondering if there was a traditional route horses take through the races?

    Like this years Supreme winner will be next years champion hurdle contender. That sort of thing....

    That way I can pick out a few likely horses from the ante post piles.....

    Any ideas?
    Thanks

    Gamblor.

  2. #2
    Top Amateur
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    I put 2 Lucky 15’s on around August last year for this year’s festival and there was very little value left in them by the start of the festival due to injury, not racing at the festival or being completely out of form so as frustrating as it is I would recommend focussing on single bets and ideally win or place in any race at the festival.

    On a more positive note there is still some decent racing to bet on over the next month with Ayr this weekend for Scottish National, Fairyhouse the following weekend for the Irish Grand National and then Sandown and the Punchestown Festival at the end of the month/start of May which will feature many of the horses that raced at the Festival this year.

  3. #3
    Quote Originally Posted by callhimgamblor View Post
    Hi guys,

    With Kemboy being 10/1 for the 2020 GC I was looking to put on a ridiculous early punt but fancied putting three or four horses together. Seeing the performers from this year in the various races I was wondering if there was a traditional route horses take through the races?

    Like this years Supreme winner will be next years champion hurdle contender. That sort of thing....

    That way I can pick out a few likely horses from the ante post piles.....

    Any ideas?
    Thanks

    Gamblor.
    I think King Pimm touched on it with his comments about his bets last August.

    If I understand your question rightly then with respect I'd suggest that if you don't have a sufficient enough idea of how most cheltenham festival type horses careers progress then betting on any races now would not be a good idea.

    Even if only for a bit of fun, there's a lot better ways to make a bet than a long term antepost multiple on something you don't know enough about.

    And even if you have a real grasp of likely race targets for a lot of horses it's very difficult to get them to even turn up on the day.

    Having said all that, there will be some value out there. and some of the others more experienced AP bettors may help you with more positivity.

    And Kemboy's price is more than likely going to be similar by November this year.
    Unless he runs at Punchestown with similar success.

  4. #4
    Champ Kevloaf's Avatar
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    Do you mean, which horses can you back "on the way" to Cheltenham in an accumulator?

    Like, Kemboy likely to run in the Christmas Chase then the Irish Gold Cup then the Gold Cup at the festival?



    If you are, good question - but unfortunately bookies tend to consider these bets on the same horse as 'Related Contingencies' and may settle the bets at SP.

  5. #5
    There are some strange patterns - Ballymore horses have ended up going well in Champion Hurdle for example.

    What you would expect is

    Supreme - Champion Hurdle or Arkle - Champion Chase or Champion Hurdle - and maybe Ryanair - this is pretty much the Altior/Min/BDA route.

    for stayers you would expect

    Albert Bartlett - RSA - Gold Cup ( Bobs Worth route) although for Gigginstown horses Ballymore often preferred to Albert Bartlett.

    of this years form I am most interested in JLT horses - Defi DS , Lost IT, Mengli Khan and Kildisart. Others prefer the RSA but a related form double of DDS in Ryanair and LIT in Gold Cup is one I have done.

  6. #6
    Quote Originally Posted by callhimgamblor View Post
    Hi guys,

    With Kemboy being 10/1 for the 2020 GC I was looking to put on a ridiculous early punt but fancied putting three or four horses together. Seeing the performers from this year in the various races I was wondering if there was a traditional route horses take through the races?

    Like this years Supreme winner will be next years champion hurdle contender. That sort of thing....

    That way I can pick out a few likely horses from the ante post piles.....

    Any ideas?
    Thanks

    Gamblor.
    If I'm reading this correctly I think you mean the traditional established routes of progression from one year to the next.

    The main ones are :

    Supreme to Arkle (if going chasing)
    Supreme to Champion Hurdle (if staying hurdling)
    Arkle to QMCC
    RSA to Gold Cup
    JLT to Ryannair or Gold Cup
    Albert Bartlett to Stayers Hurdle
    Triumph Hurdle to CH if high class juvenile
    Bumper to Spreme or Ballymore

    Hope this helps.

  7. #7
    7lb Claimer
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    Quote Originally Posted by Nortons who View Post
    If I'm reading this correctly I think you mean the traditional established routes of progression from one year to the next.

    The main ones are :

    Supreme to Arkle (if going chasing)
    Supreme to Champion Hurdle (if staying hurdling)
    Arkle to QMCC
    RSA to Gold Cup
    JLT to Ryannair or Gold Cup
    Albert Bartlett to Stayers Hurdle
    Triumph Hurdle to CH if high class juvenile
    Bumper to Spreme or Ballymore

    Hope this helps.
    That is exactly what I meant. Thank you. FWIW I also agree with quevega so will likely not be doing anything rash right now. There were a few cracking horses this year and having a good idea where they will likely end up is what I was after. If you find me on Twitter you will see the EW Lucky 15 I was toying with. https://twitter.com/callhimgamblor/s...13509129228289

    Thanks again. This forum helped me TONS back in Jan ready for this years. My mates couldn't believe I had Sire Du Berlais at 12/1! hehehehehe.

    Gamblor

  8. #8
    Quote Originally Posted by Nortons who View Post
    If I'm reading this correctly I think you mean the traditional established routes of progression from one year to the next.

    The main ones are :

    Supreme to Arkle (if going chasing)
    Supreme to Champion Hurdle (if staying hurdling)
    Arkle to QMCC
    RSA to Gold Cup
    JLT to Ryannair or Gold Cup
    Albert Bartlett to Stayers Hurdle
    Triumph Hurdle to CH if high class juvenile
    Bumper to Spreme or Ballymore

    Hope this helps.
    Don’t disagree with this but my personal preference is to avoid Triumph horses coming back in trip over the speedier Old Course in the Champion Hurdle, much prefer them to be Ballymore/Potato race bound

  9. #9
    Top Amateur
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    Quote Originally Posted by Nortons who View Post
    Bumper to Supreme or Ballymore
    .
    Would replace Supreme with Albert Bartlett

    Most recently Cheltenham bumper horses have been turning into stayers

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