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  1. #1
    Professional Fat Jockey Middle_Of_March's Avatar
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    MOM's racing preview - Aintree Festival 2019 - Day 3

    Friday’s racing was one I will look back on with huge fondness at the end of the season. It started with a 28/1 placer (Sternrubin) and peaked with back to back winners at 20/1 (Cadmium) and 5/2 (Champ). Cadmium’s win will certainly be a highlight of this season for me as he jumped round in front travelling powerfully before putting the race to bed before the famous Aintree Elbow. On to the National day now and I’ll emulate to follow the trend of the last three years with my horse finishing third, first and second. One For Arthur’s win is my favourite horse race and a rare four figure winner. Good luck to everyone playing today and let’s hope all 40 horses get round safely in the big one for the seventh year in succession.

    1:45 - Gaskells Handicap Hurdle (Grade 3)
    SIRE DU BERLAIS (4/1) landed the gamble for me and many others in the Pertemps at Cheltenham hen remarkably getting up on the line when looking beaten at the top of the hill. He’s up 8lb but the claim of Jonjo O’Neill takes a chunk of that off and he has low mileage on the clock. If avoiding traffic in running after getting his customary flat spot, he should go very close with the long run after the last hurdle likely to suit. Aux Ptit Soins goes back handicapping and has a touch of class whilst Coolanly always had a reputation of one better than a handicapper. Burrows Park is a dour stayer and could run a huge race at a price for Charlie Deutsch. MIA’S STORM (16/1) oozes class but won’t appreciate any rain and comes here after a break of five months. She may need the run but must go close if the ground keeps drying and does have a good record when fresh. I can’t ignore her here at a whopping price with Skybet paying six places.

    2:25 - Betway Mersey Novices' Hurdle (Grade 1)
    Angels Breath was beaten a long way out in the Supreme after appearing to be outpaced previously at Kempton. The step up in trip for him will help but the suspicion for me is that he was beaten so far out at Cheltenham that an extra four furlongs will need to aid him significantly. One For Rosie has been consistent all season and will appreciate any ease in the going. BREWINUPASTORM (11/4) was a good fourth over this trip in the Ballymore and has improved with racing. He will cope with the ground and is mightily consistent. The 11/4 about him is very fair in an open renewal of this grade 1. Umbrigado might be three from three this season but this is the hardest task he has faced by a distance.

    3:00 - Doom Bar Maghull Novices' Chase (Grade 1)
    Aintree’s renewal of the Arkle for two mile novices has a very open look. Lalor cannot be trusted after two poor runs but has run very well here previously. He won a grade 1 at the meeting a year ago but was pulled up quickly after never travelling at Cheltenham. US AND THEM (3/1) picked off Clondaw castle for second in that race after the latter chased after the winner from a long way out and was left a sitting duck. Us And Them may have failed to win his last four races but those seconds have all come at a high level. He’s given the nod to win a weak grade 1 here with an each way saver bet to nothing on Clondaw Castle at 4/1 with Paddy Power offering an extremely generous 3 places.

    3:40 - Ryanair Stayers Hurdle (Registered As The Liverpool Hurdle) (Grade 1)
    If The Cap Fits steps up to three miles here and this has looked likely to suit as he’d been lacking the pace in sharper contests. He was kept fresh for this when swerving Cheltenham and must go well. The flat track will play to his strengths and I could see myself having a few quid on him if APPLES JADE (13/8) drifted. Gordon Elliott’s supermare ran poorly at Cheltenham but is said to have scoped dirty and looked imperious in her other starts this season. Arguably her best performance came here as a juvenile at this meeting many years ago and she could simply be far too good for them if back to her brilliant best. The money for her from 2/1 into 13/8 suggests there is some confidence in her returning to anywhere near her best which ought to win this. William Henry caused a shock when winning the Coral Cup at 40/1 but that was a handicap and he’d need to do more. Sam Spinner looked like his old self at Cheltenham but was disappointing in this race last season and I couldn’t back him with his quirks. Roksana won the Mares grade 1 at Cheltenham when Benie Des Dieux fell at the last when clear (breaking my heart in the process) and she was prepped for a big Spring campaign so should be wound up for this. Agrapart, Kilbricken Storm and Uknowhatimeanharry haven’t shown their form of old this season whilst Sykes faces a massive rise in class.

    4:20 – Betway Handicap Chase (Grade 3)
    KILDISART (7/1) was a gallant fourth in the JLT and drops back to handicapping here carrying top weight. He may be classy but does step up in trip which will put some off. However, it could also bring out further improvement for him which would make him tough to beat and, at the prices, it’s worth the punt in my view. Debece is on a hat-trick and loves this track but is somewhat short on what he’s achieved although is held in high regard by those associated with the yard and the vibes around hi are good. Theatre Territory is surely overpriced as an each way proposition for one of his consistent nature (albeit failing to win each time) and Touch Kick needs to bounce back from a disappointing run when mid-field in the Kim Muir. Mister Malarky is a talent and likely won’t be handicapping next season.

    5:15 - Randox Health Grand National Handicap Chase (Grade 3)
    Here we go then! It’s the 2019 National and, like last year, I’m going to write a small bit about each horse before giving my prediction for the race. In card order:
    1) Annibale Fly (16/1) – Has the burden of top weight but comes here after a running on second in the Gold Cup. Classy. Fourth in the race last year. Jumps. Stays. Bold bid expected. My rating out of 10 = 7.5
    2) Valtor (100/1) – Pulled up last time after winning well on UK debut at Ascot. Failed to stay 3m 6f in France so tough ask here. 4
    3) Tiger Roll (9/2) – Won this last year. Four time Cheltenham Festival winner. Good jumper for a small horse. Nearly caught on the line last year in this but looks a far better horse this season and he bids to emulate the great Red Rum. Must go close. 9
    4) Outlander (100/1) – Sold on Thursday. Struggling in top class racing in Ireland. 11st 4lb for one on the downgrade like him makes him poorly handicapped unless bouncing back. Big ask. 3
    5) Don Poli (125/1) – One time Gold Cup favourite in his heyday. Suspicion he’s gone at the game. Sold on Thurday to new connections for this. Be a surprise to see him bounce back here. 4
    6) Go Conquer (50/1) – Admirable sort. Career best last time at Doncaster. Huge step up in trip. Will he stay? I think not. 5
    7) Mala Beach (80/1) – Wants a downpour. Expected to stay by connnections but big step up in trip here and probably lacks a touch of class to win off 11st 2lb. 4
    8) Minella Rocco (50/1) – Loves drying ground. Stays all day. Classy at his best. First time without cheekpieces or tongue tie today. Will it work? Lively outsider. 7.5
    9) Lake View Lad (16/1) – Strong stayer this season with this marathon test likely to suit. Good prep at Cheltenham latest. Go well. 7
    10) Pleasant Company (16/1) - Aimed at this since second last year. Shown nothing since. Will jump around in front and could run a big one again if getting into the same rhythm as last year. 6
    11) Ballyoptic (50/1) – Flat track seems more up his street. Capable at his best. Should stay. Not a fluent jumper. Failed to get round in the Becher in December and his jumping frailties are a concern for this. 5
    12) Dounikos (28/1) – Bounced back to his best last time. Stays strongly and this should suit. If jumping round, lively outsider. 6
    13) Rathvinden (10/1) – Oozes class. Carries just 11st and is 5lb well in officially after winning a grade 3 as his prep for this. Travelled superbly and stayed every yard in the 2018 four miler. Jumping has improved this season. My winner. 10
    14) One For Arthur (28/1) – Gave me my biggest ever win in this in 2017. Stayed strongly then. Injury worries since. Unseated both starts this season. Can’t ignore him at a huge price. 7
    15) Rock The Kasbah (16/1) – Money coming for him this morning. Strong stayer with a touch of class at his best. Down the weights carrying 10st 13lb. Jumps soundly. 6
    16) Warriors Tale (125/1) – Couldn’t fancy him over this trip. Surely won’t stay and probably not good enough anyway. Ignore. 2
    17) Regal Encore (80/1) – Inconsistent. Goes well when having a good day but not a reliable betting proposition and up another 4lbs here. 5
    18) Magic Of light (125/1) – Decent Mare. Has a good turn of foot but never looked like a stayer and this is a different proposition entirely. Hard to fancy. 4
    19) A Toi Phil (80/1) – Ran on well for fifth in the Pertemps. Major step up in trip and career best needed to figure. 5
    20) Jury Duty (16/1) – Won the USA Grand National last year over shorter. Stays all day. Big race trainer and has been aimed at this. 7
    21) Noble Endeavor (66/1) – Consistent horse who should stay. Not had a lot of racing in recent years and entitled to improve again from his last run. 6
    22) Monbeg Notorious (80/1) – Talented at his best but doubtful stayer here. Wants rain. 4
    23) Ramses De Teilee (28/1) – 5lb well in. Good jumper off the front. Somewhat one paced but stays all day and this could be right up his street. Each way chances. 7.5
    24) Tea For Two (40/1) – Down the handicap. Won a grade 1 at this meeting in 2017 at his best but poor this season. Hard to fancy. 5
    25) Just A Par (150/1) – Ran well for a long way after an absence last time over these fences in December. 12 year old may be past his bets but deserves his crack at National Glory. Seen worse 100/1 shots. 5
    26) Step Back (28/1) – Well thought of by connections. Roued a decent field at Sandown. Well held since. Mark blown? 5
    27) Ultragold (66/1) – Likes these fences. Should go well for long way. Stamina doubts. 5
    28) Blow By Blow (125/1) – Looked a good novice hurdler last season but has been poor this season. Needs to improve on even his best form. 3
    29) Up For Review (50/1) – Travelled powerfully at Cheltenham before fading. Massive step up in trip. Needs more. 5
    30) Singlefarmpayment (66/1) – Rogue. Hates winning. The Aintree elbow won’t suit as he will need to be played very late if in contention. Not for me. 3
    31) Vieux Lion Rouge (66/1) – Two dissapointments latest. Does tend to go well over these obstacles. Ninth last year. 5
    32) Valsuer Lido (100/1) – Past his best. Unlikely to stay. Very classy in his pomp but that was three years ago and he’s thoroughly exposed. 3
    33) Vintage Clouds (16/1) – Lively off just 10st 4lb. Will stay better than most. Jumps well. Big chance. 7
    34) General Principle (50/1) – Still slightly unknown. Gets a chance here and has a decent weight to go well. Interesting. 6
    35) Livelovelaugh (33/1) – Significant money for this outsider overnight. Hope is that the trip will eek out more improvement. Others have more obvious chances. 4
    36) Walk in the Mill (28/1) – Looked a decent stayer when winning the Becher. 7lb rise for that. Back up in trip here after two small events. Can go well. 5
    37) Folsom Blue (80/1) – Stays all day. Placed in this before. Surely won’t win but could place again if getting a clear round. 6
    38) Captain Redbeard (80/1) – Needs to improve. Not at his best over these fences previously and fell early last year. Still an interesting one at a huge price. 5
    39) Bless The Wings (80/1) – Admirable 14 year old with his own following. Third last year. Made an error at Cheltenham last time to effectively end his chance but ran well enough here in December. 5
    40) Joe Farrell (20/1) – Scottish National winner. Will stay this trip. Due to go up 3lb. Good reappearance latest. Big chance. 8



    Prediction:
    Joe Farrell sneaks in here off bottom weight and is due to go up 3lb. He will stay all day and should run a big race after a nice reappearance. Tiger Roll looks to emulate Red Rum and win back to back Nationals. He was superb previously at Cheltenham and is capable of winning this again. Jury Duty should relish this test of stamina whilst Lake View Lad and Vintage Clouds placed in the Ultima last time and are closely matched. Step Back is improving and will enjoy this type of race whilst previous winner One For Arthur tries to complete for the first time since winning this two years ago. Rock The Kasbah and Annibale Fly are respected with a small bet for myself o the former. My main bet for this is RATHVINDEN (10/1) who is a certain stayer after winning the four miler impressively last season. He’s well in with the handicapper and has an obvious chance. I fancy him to dethrone the Tiger in a fascinating renewal of 2019 Grand National.
    1 – Rathvinden 10/1
    2 – Tiger Roll 9/2
    3 – Rock The Kasbah 16/1
    4 – Joe Farrell 20/1
    5 – One For Arthur 28/1

    6:20 - Pinsent Masons Handicap Hurdle (Conditional Jockeys And Amateur Riders)
    This race is wide open to end the meeting. Scheau Time has been backed overnight into favourite but was last of nine last time and I don’t fancy him at all. Flashing Glance is consistent but this is his toughest test to date. The nod instead goes to smart flat performer LORD YEATS (15/2) who hasn’t done a lot wrong since switching to hurdling and deserves a crack at this bigger prize.

    Bets:
    1:45 – Sire Du Berlais 4/1 & Mia’s Strom 16/1 (each way)
    2:25 – Brewinupastorm 11/4
    3:00 – Us And Them 3/1 & Clondaw Castle 4/1 (each way saver bet)
    3:40 – Apples Jade 13/8
    4:20 – Kildisart 7/1
    5:15:
    - Rathvinden 14/1 (each way antepost)
    - Tiger Roll 5/1
    - Joe Farrell 20/1 (each way)
    - Rock The Kasbah 28/1 (small each way bet)
    - One For Arthur (small each way bet)
    6:20 – Lord Yeats 15/2

  2. #2
    Sha Tin Expert BigChaang's Avatar
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    Excellent preview again M.o.M.., Enjoyed reading these . Thankyou.

  3. #3
    Champion Fat Jockey (Moderator) Kevloaf's Avatar
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    Well done MoM.

    Another good day.

    Keep posting these, theres a place for them for sure.

  4. #4
    Professional Fat Jockey Middle_Of_March's Avatar
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    Cheers guys - delighted with the Kildisart win and the 1-3-6 in the National.

    Next meeting will be the Derby meeting I expect for these previews. I’ll certainly continue posting them.

  5. #5
    Professional Fat Jockey The King Pimm's Avatar
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    Thank you MoM for all your efforts, another top read

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