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Will be a fairly low key day for me but...I've got an hour spare now so here are a few thoughts as I look through the card...
1.45
I've had a very lazy 1 pt e/w each way bet on Brio Conti at 6/1 (6 places). The case is pretty obvious and he's not really value considering he's up another 2 lbs but I liked him for this meeting prior to his run in the Coral Cup so I can't let him run un-backed. There are loads I like as well but I will just keep it to the one in this race.
2.20
The well highlighted case in these forums for the 'value' angle on Itchy Feet was rewarded at Cheltenham. As he's now 3/1 fav initially I want to be against him, especially as the ground is now 'soft' - however, the Supreme was his best piece of form, so he's probably not as ground dependant as I'd thought. Aramon is 2nd fav and all the positives for him that you'd think would bring out improvement, like the flatter track and ground (if it's back to good to soft) would also benefit the fav... so I don't really see why he'd reverse the form. Problem being that is the way the bookies see it. I'm not keen on Precious Cargo as I can't see the value of the form yet, Southfield Stone would only interest me on 'good' and same for Felix Desjy. I wasn't impressed enough with Winston C's handicap win last time to think he can make the jump up to this level and Sofia's Rock has too much to find without her being a wild price.
At the prices of 10/1 I do like Rouge Vif - who on Boxing Day was ahead of Thomas Darby, who was 0.5L ahead of the current fav for this race in the Supreme. I'm also making the assumption that he's a bigger price than he should be as he's in the 'second colours' and therefore, I'll have 1 pt e/w at 11/1 (11.98/1 WH)
2.50 I've listened to a couple of podcasts and everyone seems to be all over Lostintranslation as a future Gold Cup contender and an each way steal in this race. Now it's only 2 places I don't think that's a sensible way to go, especially as you'd make a small loss on the place anyway! I think people are going over the top regarding how much improvement the step up will bring. It's not that I can't see him winning, as it's easy enough to pick a piece of form that entitles this horse to be matched to Topofthegame (on a line through Defi Du Seuil at least and La Bague Au Roi) and that does stop me getting too bullish about the RSA winners chances. Ultimately, I think Topofthegame beat Lostintranslation in any race they ever run in together if they stand up, but at 5/6 it's hardly a bold shout. None of the others interest me as an each way bet because the top 2 aren't easy to kick out of the two. The value play would probably be the Tizzard horse but I'm going against what is perceived as the value play in this instance. 3 pts win Topofthegame 5/6
3.25 I'm sat firmly in the camp that Waiting Paitently isn't as good as I thought. The second to Cyrname isn't worth as much as the number suggests. He was 3L ahead of Politlogue who re-opposes but Politilogue wouldn't have been fully wound up this day and he's 2-2 around Aintree (or would be bar the fall! haha) Only 6 runners so as much as I like God's Own (ground against) and Top Notch (beaten way too far at Chelt for me to consider here) I'll be backing Min 2 pts win 7/2. He under performed at Cheltenham - that's definitely a concern. He was beaten by Politilogue in this race last year - definitely a concern. However, he's 3rd fav and I'm stone co0ld certain he's the best horse in the race. 7/2 is too big for me to not back in this field. If he was a 6/4 shot, then the concerns are reason not to back him, but I just can't have at all the WP or Poli are better horses. They may have things slightly more in their favour, but the price compensates that for me. Back to running prominitely, should bring out his best and I am not worried about him getting the trip. On balance of his form soft ground will help him just as much as the favourite too!
Also 1 pt 7/1 DOUBLE - Topofthegame,Min
4.05
Way too many to discuss all, like the thought of Activial over the shorter trip. Know Faugheen_Machine is on as well and he's a judge at this meeting. 1 pt e/w. I will add another, would have been Peregrine Run but he was 20s+ when I last looked and got smashed into about 10s.... now it's looking like soft ground he's back on the drift so not sure what to do. 14s now, maybe I'll press at 16/1. Janicka isn't a bad bet for the places but always finds one too good and I wouldn't back a horse like that as fav in a race with a million runners like this!
4.40 Feel obliged to take on Champ and Emiton. The former, may not stay and fair enough if he does but he's pulled too hard to back over this trip for the first time at sub 3/1 prices for me. Emitom I didn't like the way he won last time, should have done it easier. He's unbeaten so it's not easy to pick at him really and skipped Cheltenham to come here, but if I was going to back one of the front two, I'd side with Champ still so I'll move on. 3rd fav, I love... Dallas Des Pictons, he's clearly better than a handicapper BUT the market has not missed that. He's almost joint fav. I can happily let him win at that price too. Lisnager Oscar tempts at 7/1 each way but not enough. I looked at Kingsplace 50/1 and Champagne Well at 40/1 who have placed form behind Dickie Diver and Downtown Getaway but it's hard to see them winning. I'm going to have a small 0.5 pt e/w bet on Trevelyns Corn 16/1 (4 places). This isn't a strong selection, he's a horse on the radar because he went for a fortune after his PtP and he's by Oscar out of a Presenting Mare. He should be a cracking horse in time and in a race I'm struggling to get too jiggy, I'll play him for interest.
5.15 - nearly done Easy enough, was a big fan of Master Debonair pre Cheltenham. 1 pt e/w 9/1 (4 places) looks too big to me. Case was made in the bumper threads for Chelt so let's hope he can show the promise a few of us thought he had!
Just posted on Bobbys thread ,so I'll put my Secondary L.31 here -
1.- Esprit du large - 1-45.
2.- Precious cargo - 2-20.
3.- Chris's dream - 2-50.
4.- Forest des aigles - 4-05.
5.- downtown getaway - 4-40.
Itchy Feet reappearing just 3 weeks after bursting blood vessells is a worry for me, so I'm tempted by Southfield Shield although the Angels Breath doesn't look as strong as it did pre Supreme.
The Mildway should be a top race, I'm not expecting a repeat of the RSA but alot of things to look forward to. LIT stepping up, Chris' Dream is an interesting horse and Top Ville Ben hopefully stays on his feet.
With Kev in picking Min for the Melling, I just can't have Politologue never have and nothing this season to change my mind. Waiting Patiently again, has no real form that makes me think he is a superstar.
Archie could have a hell of a festival with Cadmium! But I've no real fancy in the Topham
Lisnagar Oscar could be the bet of the day 7/1, like Politologue I just have something against Champ no real reason why but I get like that with some horses. My fingers were very burnt on DDP, while LO ran a creditable 5th in the AB, has 5 lengths to find on Emitom from their maiden however I'm trusting he has improved past that and is battle hardened enough to perform well here.
I know Nicholls thinks alot of McFabulous so will side with him.
like a few in the first but have backed three so far. Tedham 2pts win 10-1 - unexposed over 2m 4f plus and only 6lb higher for last win. previous novice hurdle form over 2m only and finished 4th 3rd and 2nd by no more than 6 lengths each time to horses now rated mid 140's at least. So 131 was an obviously attractive rating. Wait For me 1pt ew 28-1 - Again looks on a nice mark of 134 (lowest for a while) to my eye he don't quite get 3 mile on a stiff track so this should suit and he should go well. Definitely travels well and with a patient ride and a race that hopefully doesn't get too stretched he'd be my most likely winner. Had me worried for a while at cheltenham as had about 7 running for me but not this one. Mount Mews 1pt ew 36-1 7 places - Again off 137 looks attractive enough as it's as low as he's been, Mccain would possibly have had a race like this in mind for a while and hughes riding is a positive. Needs to set off this time and should probably get a place in a race that good stamina might help.
In second race I've just backed Aramon 2pts 11-2.
No strong opinion but a flat track should suit, however, if they get racing early then I'm not so sure it'll favour this horse and anything could win.
Third race.
Backed Chris's Dream 2pts win 14-1. Love the way rachel rides and she helped me make a profit today with excellent ride on Moon Over Germany. Might help that he skipped cheltenham and only other fresh horse is mr whipped who i think might not be quick enough against these. TOTG should win but not for me at that price.
Had 2pts 5-2 Politilogue antepost thinking they might not run waiting patiently - hope the nicholls horse wins. Don't fancy Min at all. Other than that no strong opinion
I like Call it Magic 2pts win 16-1 and think they had this in mind straight after it's run here early in the season. Backed it earlier this week.
Also backed OOSeven 2pts ew 20-1 - if it gets into a rhythm like at cheltenham then it should get to the last at least in with a chance, but got a feeling it will get done on the run in. has form on the course off bigger weight.
Both race prominently normally and usually an advantage, although the race tends to be full of them these days.
Looking at Kilcrea vale also but not backed as yet.
Backed Champ antepost 1pt win 11-2 and Walk away 1pt win 16-1, backed champ just cos i thought it would be shorter on the day and would have an obvious chance, and backed walk away cos it's a great song by cast. and might be decent unexposed horse (interesting entry after maiden win)
Had 2pts win Santa Rossa 10/3 I liked this for the festival against the boys with the allowance so must have a chance against these after cheltenham bumper got a boost today.
Forgot one.
said i liked a few in first
had 1pt ew 16-1 6 places Kobrouk.
only henderson entry in race he's won 3/6 years.
not ran for 700 days, ex french horse with reasonable form.
has to be of interest really.
I did notice that on such a day of top quality yesterday that in every single race, other than the Foxhunters, all the winners were by G1 winning stallions and G1 winning dam sires. The Foxhunters winner was by a French National Hunt horse.
There were twice as many fallers in the 3:50 at Taunton than there were over the brush hurdles in the Foxhunters too.
Brio Conti ew 6/1 - as per Kev's post
Knight in Dubai ew 16/1 - an eye catcher in the coral cup. The track will suit but the ground is now a worry.
Rouge Vif 11/1 - as per Kev's post.
Topofthegame 4/5 - should be winning this and 4/5 looks a decent price on the RSA running. Going in multiples.
Activial ew 25/1 (nap) - jumps like a stag, should enjoy this test and the trip.
Sub Lieutenant 70.0 - not as good as he was but has some decent course form. Hopefully the fences can work him into life. Trainer and jockey another positive.
Call it Magic ew 10/1 - his run over the fences was eye-catching earlier in the season, drop in trip will suit. This must have been the plan since December.
Henryville ew 28/1 - mainly because I love the trainer at Aintree. He does have so good course form also.
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