To back Cheltenham Horses at Aintree or not ?

[mayo]

This is old but pretty much disproved dont back cheltenham runners at Aintree theory. If anyone has the time an update appreciated.

Thursday

Race 1 (Grade 2 Hurdle)
2009 - Big Bucks - 1st @ Cheltenham
2010 - Big Bucks - 1st @ Cheltenham
2011 - Big Bucks - 1st @ Cheltenham
2012 - Big Bucks - 1st @ Cheltenham

Race 2 (Grade 1 Novice Hurdle)
2009 - Walkon - 2nd @ Cheltenham
2010 - Orsippus - 3rd @ Cheltenham
2011 - Zarkandar - 1st @ Cheltenham
2012 - Grumeti - 3rd @ Cheltenham

Race 3 (Grade 2 Chase)
2009 - Madison Du Berlais - 8th @ Cheltenham
2010 - What A Friend - 1st @ Leopardstown
2011 - Nacarat - 3rd @ Kempton
2012 - Follow The Plan - 4th @ Gowran Park

Race 4 (Foxhunters - National Course)
2009 - Trust Fund - 1st @ Chepstow
2010 - Silver Adonis - 2nd @ Ludlow
2011 - Baby Run - Unseated Rider @ Cheltenham
2012 - Cloudy Lane - 6th @ Cheltenham

Race 5 (Handicap Chase)
2009 - Oh Crick - 1st @ Cheltenham
2010 - Chaninbar - Pulled Up @ Sandown
2011 - Silk Drum - 5th @ Doncaster
2012 - Edgardo Sol - 2nd @ Cheltenham

Race 6 (Grade 2 Novice Chase)
2009 - Tartak - 5th @ Cheltenham
2010 - Mad Max - 4th @ Cheltenham
2011 - Wishfull Thinking - 2nd @ Cheltenham
2012 - Menorah - 3rd @ Cheltenham

Race 7 (Handicap Hurdle)
2009 - Sunnyhill Boy - 25th @ Cheltenham
2010 - Sir Harry Ormesher - 7th @ Cheltenham
2011 - Russian War - 10th @ Cheltenham
2012 - Cape Tribulation - 1st @ Cheltenham


Friday

Race 1 (Grade 2 Novice Hurdle)
2009 - El Dancer - 1st @ Plumpton
2010 - General Miller - Unseated @ Cheltenham
2011 - Topolski- 1st @ Newton Abbot
2012 - Darlan - 2nd @ Cheltenham

Race 2 (Grade 2 Novice Chase)
2009 - Killyglen - Pulled Up @ Cheltenham
2010 - Burton Port - 2nd @ Cheltenham
2011 - Quito De La Roque - 1st @ Navan
2012 - Silviniaco Conti - 4th @ Ascot

Race 3 (Grade 1 Chase)
2009 - Voy Por Ustedes - 2nd @ Cheltenham
2010 - Albertas Run - 1st @ Cheltenham
2011 - Master Minded - 8th @ Cheltenham
2012 - Finians Rainbow - 1st @ Cheltenham

Race 4 (Handicap Chase - National Course)
2009 - Irish Raptor - 10th @ Cheltenham
2010 - Always Waining - Pulled Up @ Uttoxeter
2011 - Always Waining - 4th @ Chepstow
2012 - Always Waining - 9th @ Bangor

Race 5 (Grade 1 Novice Hurdle)
2009 - Ogee - 1st @ Uttoxeter
2010 - Wayward Prince - 2nd @ Haydock
2011 - Saint Are - 3rd @ Newbury
2012 - Lovcen - 4th @ Cheltenham

Race 6 (Handicap Hurdle)
2009 - Time For Rupert - 10th @ Sandown
2010 - Ringaroses - 1st @ Huntingdon
2011 - Battle Group - 4th @ Cheltenham
2012 - Attaglance - 1st @ Cheltenham

Race 7 (NH Flat Race)
2009 - Candy Creek - 4th @ Navan
2010 - Big Time Billy - 1st @ Ludlow
2011 - Tempest River - 4th @ Sandown
2012 - Eleven Fifty Nine - 3rd @ Sandown


Saturday

Race 1 (Grade 2 Novice Hurdle)
2009 - Bouggler - 1st @ Kempton
2010 - Peddlers Cross - 1st @ Cheltenham
2011 - Spirit Son - 2nd @ Cheltenham
2012 - Simonsig - 1st @ Cheltenham

Race 2 (Grade 1 Novice Chase)
2009 - Kalahari King - 2nd @ Cheltenham
2010 - Tataniano - 2nd @ Newbury
2011 - Finians Rainbow - 2nd @ Cheltenham
2012 - Sprinter Sacre - 1st @ Cheltenham

Race 3 (Grade 1 Hurdle)
2009 - Solwhit - 1st @ Gowran Park
2010 - Khyber Kim - 2nd @ Cheltenham
2011 - Oscar Whisky - 3rd @ Cheltenham
2012 - Oscar Whisky - 5th @ Cheltenham

Race 4 (Handicap Chase)
2009 - Dont Push It - 7th @ Cheltenham
2010 - From Dawn To Dusk - 3rd @ Cheltenham
2011 - Prince De Beauchene - 5th @ Newbury
2012 - Saint Are - 14th @ Cheltenham

Race 5 (Grand National - National Course)
2009 - Mon Mome - 8th @ Uttoxeter
2010 - Dont Push It - Pulled Up @ Cheltenham
2011 - Ballabriggs - 2nd @ Kelso
2012 - Neptune Collonges - 2nd @ Haydock

Race 6 (Handicap Hurdle)
2009 - Culcabock - 17th @ Cheltenham
2010 - Dee Ee Williams - 3rd @ Cheltenham
2011 - Far Away So Close - 9th @ Cheltenham
2012 - Lifestyle - 21st @ Cheltenham

Race 7 (NH Flat Race)
2009 - Sitting Tennant - 1st @ Newcastle
2010 - Megastar - 5th @ Cheltenham
2011 - Steps To Freedom - Fell @ Bellestown
2012 - The New One - 6th @ Cheltenham


Overall Record

In total there are 84 races, 7 each day over 3 days, of those 84 winners, 52 of them had their last run @ Cheltenham (61.9%) and of those 52, 29 finished in the first 3 @ Cheltenham (55.8%)


Novice Hurdles 10 of the last 16 winners had their last run @ Cheltenham

Grade 1 & 2 Hurdles (Non Novice) 7 of the last 8 winners had their last run @ Cheltenham but Big Bucks did win 4 of those races

Novice Chases 9 of the last 12 winners had their last run @ Cheltenham

Grade 1 & 2 Chases (Non Novice) 5 of the last 8 winners had their last run @ Cheltenham

Handicap Hurdles 10 of the last 12 winners had their last run @ Cheltenham

Handicap Chases (Non National Course) 6 of the 12 winners had their last run @ Cheltenham

National Course Races 4 of the 12 winners had their last run @ Cheltenham

NH Flat Races 2 of the last 8 winners had their last run @ Cheltenham

Conclusion
Using the stats above then any horse that had their last run @ Cheltenham, especially if they finished in the first 3 should be given serious consideration for every race @ Aintree except the following -

Any horse running in a Handicap Chase (all courses) as only 10 of the last 24 winners had their last run @ Cheltenham, it may pay to look at horses that avoided Cheltenham.

NH Flat Races, with only 2 of 8 winners having run @ Cheltenham, it's fair to say that Cheltenham form in these events should be ignored.

And 1 final other stat i have noticed, horses that have contested any Handicap @ Aintree that won on their previous start (No matter where they ran) have only won 4 of the last 28 Handicaps run @ Aintree

I hope these stats can help you pick out a winner or 2 @ the Aintree Festival

[Hurricane fly]

Essentially back Big Bucks and then horses in the first 2 on the Saturday.

I’d imagine the trend shifts depending on the gap, 18 days and 25 days is quite a difference

[Eggs]

...Sporting Life highlight 10 horses who missed Cheltenham but worth following;

https://www.sportinglife.com/racing/news/absent-friends-spring-to-mind/164054

Lalor heading to Aintree;

https://www.sportinglife.com/racing/news/lalor-heading-to-aintree/164077

[mayo]

Liverpool Hurdle : Aintree Stayers

2009 - Big Bucks - 1st @ Cheltenham
2010 - Big Bucks - 1st @ Cheltenham
2011 - Big Bucks - 1st @ Cheltenham
2012 - Big Bucks - 1st @ Cheltenham
2013 - Solwhit - 1st @ Cheltenham
2014 - Whisper 1st @ Cheltenham (Coral Cup)
2015 - Whisper 5th @ Cheltenham
2016 - Thistlecrack 1st @ Cheltenham
2017 - Yanworth DSQ @ Cheltenham (Champion Hurdle)
2018 - Identity Thief 4th @ Cheltenham (Champion Hurdle)

10/10 ran at Cheltenham.

(more to follow)

[mayo]

Aintree 4 juvenile hurdle (Grade 1 Novice Hurdle)
2009 - Walkon - 2nd @ Cheltenham
2010 - Orsippus - 3rd @ Cheltenham
2011 - Zarkandar - 1st @ Cheltenham
2012 - Grumeti - 3rd @ Cheltenham
2013 - L'Unique 3rd @ Kempton
2014 - Guitar Pete 3rd @ Cheltenham
2015 - All Yours - 5th @ Cheltenham ( Fred Winter)
2016 - Apples Jade - 2nd @ Cheltenham
2017 - Defi De Deuil 1st @ Cheltenham
2018 - We Have a Dream - 1st @ Musselburgh

8/10 ran @ Cheltenham

[mayo]

Aintree Bowl (3m Grade 1 Chase)

2009 - Madison Du Berlais - 8th @ Cheltenham
2010 - What A Friend - 1st @ Leopardstown
2011 - Nacarat - 3rd @ Kempton
2012 - Follow The Plan - 4th @ Gowran Park
2013 First Lieutenant - 2 @ Cheltenham (Ryanair)
2014 Silvi Conti - 4 @ Cheltenham
2015 Silvi Conti - 7 @ Cheltenham
2016 Cue Card - F @ Cheltenham
2017 Tea for Two - UR @ Cheltenham
2018 Might Bite - 2nd @ Cheltenham

8/10 ran @ Cheltenham none winning.

[mayo]

(Foxhunters - National Course)

2009 - Trust Fund - 1st @ Chepstow
2010 - Silver Adonis - 2nd @ Ludlow
2011 - Baby Run - Unseated Rider @ Cheltenham
2012 - Cloudy Lane - 6th @ Cheltenham
2013 Tartan Snow 2@ Carlisle
2014 Warne 1 @ Fairyhouse
2015 On The Fringe 1 @ Cheltenham
2016 On The Fringe 1 @ Cheltenham
2017 Dineur 2 @ Chepstow
2018 Balnaslow 7 @ Cheltenham

5/10 @ Cheltenham - Previous Course form a better pointer ?

[mayo]

Manifesto Novices Chase 2m 4f ( Grade1)

2009 - Tartak - 5th @ Cheltenham
2010 - Mad Max - 4th @ Cheltenham
2011 - Wishfull Thinking - 2nd @ Cheltenham
2012 - Menorah - 3rd @ Cheltenham
2013 Captain Conan 5th @ Cheltenham JLT
2014 Uxizandre 2nd @ Cheltenham JLT
2015 Clarcam 8th@ Cheltenham Arkle
2016 Arzal 2nd @ Doncaster
2017 Flying Angel 6 @ Cheltenham JLT
2018 Finians Oscar 5 @ Cheltenham JLT

9/10 ran at Cheltenham - none won

[Eggs]

....very useful stuff, Mayo.

Regarding the Foxhunters, Dineur was a big priced 2nd to On the Fringe the year before it won, I imagine it’s an advantage to have previously jumped the fences.

[mayo]

....very useful stuff, Mayo.

Regarding the Foxhunters, Dineur was a big priced 2nd to On the Fringe the year before it won, I imagine it’s an advantage to have previously jumped the fences.

Balnaslow 2nd in 2017 won in 2018 - Topham also littered with horses winning again or running well.

[Eggs]

Balnaslow 2nd in 2017 won in 2018 - Topham also littered with horses winning again or running well.

...we might have hit on a new trend for Aintree Foxhunters, back the horse who finished 2nd last year - Bears Affair.

[mayo]

Top Novices Hurdle

2009 - El Dancer - 1st @ Plumpton
2010 - General Miller - Unseated @ Cheltenham
2011 - Topolski- 1st @ Newton Abbot
2012 - Darlan - 2nd @ Cheltenham
2013 Mytentoryours 2nd @ Cheltenham
2014 Josses Hill 2nd @ Cheltenham
2015 Cyrius Darius 1st @ Hexham
2016 Buveur D'Air 3rd @ Cheltenham
2017 Pingshou 10th @ Cheltenham
2018 Lalor 13th @ Newbury

6/10 Ran at Cheltenham none winning. Henderson has trained 5/10 last winners and 4 of last 6. Contrast with a lowish win strike rate in Supreme from same trainer.

[mayo]

Melling Chase

Race 3 (Grade 1 Chase)
2009 - Voy Por Ustedes - 2nd @ Cheltenham
2010 - Albertas Run - 1st @ Cheltenham
2011 - Master Minded - 8th @ Cheltenham
2012 - Finians Rainbow - 1st @ Cheltenham
2013 Sprinter Sacre 1st @ Cheltenham
2014 Boston Bob 6th @ Cheltenham
2015 Don Cossack 3rd @ Cheltenham
2016 Gods Own 4th @ Cheltenham
2017 Fox Norton 2nd @ Cheltenham
2018 Politologue 4th @ Cheltenham

10/10 have run at Cheltenham. Champion Chaser has a good record when showing up.

[jack1092]

Mayo, do you have those stats for the 2m novice chase by any chance?

[mayo]

Mayo, do you have those stats for the 2m novice chase by any chance?

Maghull Novices Chase

2009 - Kalahari King - 2nd @ Cheltenham
2010 - Tataniano - 2nd @ Newbury
2011 - Finians Rainbow - 2nd @ Cheltenham
2012 - Sprinter Sacre - 1st @ Cheltenham
2013 Special Tiara 5 @ Leopardstown
2014 Balder Succes 1 @ Kempton
2015 Sizing Granite 1 @ Leopardstown
2016 Douvan 1 @ Cheltenham
2017 San Benedeto 1@ Ascot
2018 Diego Du Charmil f@ Ascot

4/10 prep'd at Cheltenham but only 1 of last 6 winners.