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  1. #1

    To back Cheltenham Horses at Aintree or not ?

    This is old but pretty much disproved dont back cheltenham runners at Aintree theory. If anyone has the time an update appreciated.

    Thursday

    Race 1 (Grade 2 Hurdle)
    2009 - Big Bucks - 1st @ Cheltenham
    2010 - Big Bucks - 1st @ Cheltenham
    2011 - Big Bucks - 1st @ Cheltenham
    2012 - Big Bucks - 1st @ Cheltenham

    Race 2 (Grade 1 Novice Hurdle)
    2009 - Walkon - 2nd @ Cheltenham
    2010 - Orsippus - 3rd @ Cheltenham
    2011 - Zarkandar - 1st @ Cheltenham
    2012 - Grumeti - 3rd @ Cheltenham

    Race 3 (Grade 2 Chase)
    2009 - Madison Du Berlais - 8th @ Cheltenham
    2010 - What A Friend - 1st @ Leopardstown
    2011 - Nacarat - 3rd @ Kempton
    2012 - Follow The Plan - 4th @ Gowran Park

    Race 4 (Foxhunters - National Course)
    2009 - Trust Fund - 1st @ Chepstow
    2010 - Silver Adonis - 2nd @ Ludlow
    2011 - Baby Run - Unseated Rider @ Cheltenham
    2012 - Cloudy Lane - 6th @ Cheltenham

    Race 5 (Handicap Chase)
    2009 - Oh Crick - 1st @ Cheltenham
    2010 - Chaninbar - Pulled Up @ Sandown
    2011 - Silk Drum - 5th @ Doncaster
    2012 - Edgardo Sol - 2nd @ Cheltenham

    Race 6 (Grade 2 Novice Chase)
    2009 - Tartak - 5th @ Cheltenham
    2010 - Mad Max - 4th @ Cheltenham
    2011 - Wishfull Thinking - 2nd @ Cheltenham
    2012 - Menorah - 3rd @ Cheltenham

    Race 7 (Handicap Hurdle)
    2009 - Sunnyhill Boy - 25th @ Cheltenham
    2010 - Sir Harry Ormesher - 7th @ Cheltenham
    2011 - Russian War - 10th @ Cheltenham
    2012 - Cape Tribulation - 1st @ Cheltenham


    Friday

    Race 1 (Grade 2 Novice Hurdle)
    2009 - El Dancer - 1st @ Plumpton
    2010 - General Miller - Unseated @ Cheltenham
    2011 - Topolski- 1st @ Newton Abbot
    2012 - Darlan - 2nd @ Cheltenham

    Race 2 (Grade 2 Novice Chase)
    2009 - Killyglen - Pulled Up @ Cheltenham
    2010 - Burton Port - 2nd @ Cheltenham
    2011 - Quito De La Roque - 1st @ Navan
    2012 - Silviniaco Conti - 4th @ Ascot

    Race 3 (Grade 1 Chase)
    2009 - Voy Por Ustedes - 2nd @ Cheltenham
    2010 - Albertas Run - 1st @ Cheltenham
    2011 - Master Minded - 8th @ Cheltenham
    2012 - Finians Rainbow - 1st @ Cheltenham

    Race 4 (Handicap Chase - National Course)
    2009 - Irish Raptor - 10th @ Cheltenham
    2010 - Always Waining - Pulled Up @ Uttoxeter
    2011 - Always Waining - 4th @ Chepstow
    2012 - Always Waining - 9th @ Bangor

    Race 5 (Grade 1 Novice Hurdle)
    2009 - Ogee - 1st @ Uttoxeter
    2010 - Wayward Prince - 2nd @ Haydock
    2011 - Saint Are - 3rd @ Newbury
    2012 - Lovcen - 4th @ Cheltenham

    Race 6 (Handicap Hurdle)
    2009 - Time For Rupert - 10th @ Sandown
    2010 - Ringaroses - 1st @ Huntingdon
    2011 - Battle Group - 4th @ Cheltenham
    2012 - Attaglance - 1st @ Cheltenham

    Race 7 (NH Flat Race)
    2009 - Candy Creek - 4th @ Navan
    2010 - Big Time Billy - 1st @ Ludlow
    2011 - Tempest River - 4th @ Sandown
    2012 - Eleven Fifty Nine - 3rd @ Sandown


    Saturday

    Race 1 (Grade 2 Novice Hurdle)
    2009 - Bouggler - 1st @ Kempton
    2010 - Peddlers Cross - 1st @ Cheltenham
    2011 - Spirit Son - 2nd @ Cheltenham
    2012 - Simonsig - 1st @ Cheltenham

    Race 2 (Grade 1 Novice Chase)
    2009 - Kalahari King - 2nd @ Cheltenham
    2010 - Tataniano - 2nd @ Newbury
    2011 - Finians Rainbow - 2nd @ Cheltenham
    2012 - Sprinter Sacre - 1st @ Cheltenham

    Race 3 (Grade 1 Hurdle)
    2009 - Solwhit - 1st @ Gowran Park
    2010 - Khyber Kim - 2nd @ Cheltenham
    2011 - Oscar Whisky - 3rd @ Cheltenham
    2012 - Oscar Whisky - 5th @ Cheltenham

    Race 4 (Handicap Chase)
    2009 - Dont Push It - 7th @ Cheltenham
    2010 - From Dawn To Dusk - 3rd @ Cheltenham
    2011 - Prince De Beauchene - 5th @ Newbury
    2012 - Saint Are - 14th @ Cheltenham

    Race 5 (Grand National - National Course)
    2009 - Mon Mome - 8th @ Uttoxeter
    2010 - Dont Push It - Pulled Up @ Cheltenham
    2011 - Ballabriggs - 2nd @ Kelso
    2012 - Neptune Collonges - 2nd @ Haydock

    Race 6 (Handicap Hurdle)
    2009 - Culcabock - 17th @ Cheltenham
    2010 - Dee Ee Williams - 3rd @ Cheltenham
    2011 - Far Away So Close - 9th @ Cheltenham
    2012 - Lifestyle - 21st @ Cheltenham

    Race 7 (NH Flat Race)
    2009 - Sitting Tennant - 1st @ Newcastle
    2010 - Megastar - 5th @ Cheltenham
    2011 - Steps To Freedom - Fell @ Bellestown
    2012 - The New One - 6th @ Cheltenham


    Overall Record

    In total there are 84 races, 7 each day over 3 days, of those 84 winners, 52 of them had their last run @ Cheltenham (61.9%) and of those 52, 29 finished in the first 3 @ Cheltenham (55.8%)


    Novice Hurdles 10 of the last 16 winners had their last run @ Cheltenham

    Grade 1 & 2 Hurdles (Non Novice) 7 of the last 8 winners had their last run @ Cheltenham but Big Bucks did win 4 of those races

    Novice Chases 9 of the last 12 winners had their last run @ Cheltenham

    Grade 1 & 2 Chases (Non Novice) 5 of the last 8 winners had their last run @ Cheltenham

    Handicap Hurdles 10 of the last 12 winners had their last run @ Cheltenham

    Handicap Chases (Non National Course) 6 of the 12 winners had their last run @ Cheltenham

    National Course Races 4 of the 12 winners had their last run @ Cheltenham

    NH Flat Races 2 of the last 8 winners had their last run @ Cheltenham

    Conclusion
    Using the stats above then any horse that had their last run @ Cheltenham, especially if they finished in the first 3 should be given serious consideration for every race @ Aintree except the following -

    Any horse running in a Handicap Chase (all courses) as only 10 of the last 24 winners had their last run @ Cheltenham, it may pay to look at horses that avoided Cheltenham.

    NH Flat Races, with only 2 of 8 winners having run @ Cheltenham, it's fair to say that Cheltenham form in these events should be ignored.

    And 1 final other stat i have noticed, horses that have contested any Handicap @ Aintree that won on their previous start (No matter where they ran) have only won 4 of the last 28 Handicaps run @ Aintree

    I hope these stats can help you pick out a winner or 2 @ the Aintree Festival

  2. #2
    Top Amateur
    Join Date
    Apr 2017
    Posts
    1,296
    Essentially back Big Bucks and then horses in the first 2 on the Saturday.

    I’d imagine the trend shifts depending on the gap, 18 days and 25 days is quite a difference

  3. #3
    Top Amateur
    Join Date
    Jan 2019
    Posts
    380
    ...Sporting Life highlight 10 horses who missed Cheltenham but worth following;

    https://www.sportinglife.com/racing/...to-mind/164054

    Lalor heading to Aintree;

    https://www.sportinglife.com/racing/...aintree/164077
    Last edited by Eggs; 03-20-2019 at 07:37 AM.

  4. #4
    Liverpool Hurdle : Aintree Stayers

    2009 - Big Bucks - 1st @ Cheltenham
    2010 - Big Bucks - 1st @ Cheltenham
    2011 - Big Bucks - 1st @ Cheltenham
    2012 - Big Bucks - 1st @ Cheltenham
    2013 - Solwhit - 1st @ Cheltenham
    2014 - Whisper 1st @ Cheltenham (Coral Cup)
    2015 - Whisper 5th @ Cheltenham
    2016 - Thistlecrack 1st @ Cheltenham
    2017 - Yanworth DSQ @ Cheltenham (Champion Hurdle)
    2018 - Identity Thief 4th @ Cheltenham (Champion Hurdle)

    10/10 ran at Cheltenham.

    (more to follow)

  5. #5
    Aintree 4 juvenile hurdle (Grade 1 Novice Hurdle)
    2009 - Walkon - 2nd @ Cheltenham
    2010 - Orsippus - 3rd @ Cheltenham
    2011 - Zarkandar - 1st @ Cheltenham
    2012 - Grumeti - 3rd @ Cheltenham
    2013 - L'Unique 3rd @ Kempton
    2014 - Guitar Pete 3rd @ Cheltenham
    2015 - All Yours - 5th @ Cheltenham ( Fred Winter)
    2016 - Apples Jade - 2nd @ Cheltenham
    2017 - Defi De Deuil 1st @ Cheltenham
    2018 - We Have a Dream - 1st @ Musselburgh

    8/10 ran @ Cheltenham

  6. #6
    Aintree Bowl (3m Grade 1 Chase)

    2009 - Madison Du Berlais - 8th @ Cheltenham
    2010 - What A Friend - 1st @ Leopardstown
    2011 - Nacarat - 3rd @ Kempton
    2012 - Follow The Plan - 4th @ Gowran Park
    2013 First Lieutenant - 2 @ Cheltenham (Ryanair)
    2014 Silvi Conti - 4 @ Cheltenham
    2015 Silvi Conti - 7 @ Cheltenham
    2016 Cue Card - F @ Cheltenham
    2017 Tea for Two - UR @ Cheltenham
    2018 Might Bite - 2nd @ Cheltenham

    8/10 ran @ Cheltenham none winning.

  7. #7
    (Foxhunters - National Course)

    2009 - Trust Fund - 1st @ Chepstow
    2010 - Silver Adonis - 2nd @ Ludlow
    2011 - Baby Run - Unseated Rider @ Cheltenham
    2012 - Cloudy Lane - 6th @ Cheltenham
    2013 Tartan Snow 2@ Carlisle
    2014 Warne 1 @ Fairyhouse
    2015 On The Fringe 1 @ Cheltenham
    2016 On The Fringe 1 @ Cheltenham
    2017 Dineur 2 @ Chepstow
    2018 Balnaslow 7 @ Cheltenham

    5/10 @ Cheltenham - Previous Course form a better pointer ?

  8. #8
    Manifesto Novices Chase 2m 4f ( Grade1)

    2009 - Tartak - 5th @ Cheltenham
    2010 - Mad Max - 4th @ Cheltenham
    2011 - Wishfull Thinking - 2nd @ Cheltenham
    2012 - Menorah - 3rd @ Cheltenham
    2013 Captain Conan 5th @ Cheltenham JLT
    2014 Uxizandre 2nd @ Cheltenham JLT
    2015 Clarcam 8th@ Cheltenham Arkle
    2016 Arzal 2nd @ Doncaster
    2017 Flying Angel 6 @ Cheltenham JLT
    2018 Finians Oscar 5 @ Cheltenham JLT

    9/10 ran at Cheltenham - none won

  9. #9
    Top Amateur
    Join Date
    Jan 2019
    Posts
    380
    ....very useful stuff, Mayo.

    Regarding the Foxhunters, Dineur was a big priced 2nd to On the Fringe the year before it won, I imagine it’s an advantage to have previously jumped the fences.
    Last edited by Eggs; 03-20-2019 at 09:56 AM.

  10. #10
    Quote Originally Posted by Eggs View Post
    ....very useful stuff, Mayo.

    Regarding the Foxhunters, Dineur was a big priced 2nd to On the Fringe the year before it won, I imagine it’s an advantage to have previously jumped the fences.
    Balnaslow 2nd in 2017 won in 2018 - Topham also littered with horses winning again or running well.

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