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  1. #11
    Champ Kevloaf's Avatar
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    Also, there is ONLY Katchit as a 5yo winner of the CH that DIDN'T go on to be a multiple winner.


    Doesn't always pay to go beyond the obvious

  2. #12
    Champ Kevloaf's Avatar
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    Altior isn't a good bet IMO at 3/1 when we aren't CERTAIN about the target.


    I understand why it's likely he goes for a 3rd CH, but he's not going to have an 'ideal' 2 mile chaser prep for it next year, 3/1 isn't good value.

  3. #13
    Champ Kevloaf's Avatar
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    Defi Du Seuil doesn't have a whole lot of negatives.

    Double figure price (10/1) - the obvious target. The target the trainer mentioned.

    Two time festival winner (notably on the 'new' course)

    Frodon to beat... pfft.

  4. #14
    Quote Originally Posted by Kevloaf View Post
    Altior isn't a good bet IMO at 3/1 when we aren't CERTAIN about the target.


    I understand why it's likely he goes for a 3rd CH, but he's not going to have an 'ideal' 2 mile chaser prep for it next year, 3/1 isn't good value.
    Altior isn’t giving up a third championship for a Ryanair and whilst I have always been a huge fan of the horse even I can’t make a case for a Gold Cup tilt, so if he’s fit and well come March 2020 I can only see him heading for one race

  5. #15
    Champ Kevloaf's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Istabraq View Post
    Altior isn’t giving up a third championship for a Ryanair and whilst I have always been a huge fan of the horse even I can’t make a case for a Gold Cup tilt, so if he’s fit and well come March 2020 I can only see him heading for one race
    I know he isn't going for the Ryanair...

    but if wins the King George, do they rule out a Gold Cup?

    If he doesn't wina King George, he looks a helluva lot more vulnerable than he did before he ran?




    You can't make a case for a Gold Cup tilt? You cannot make a case?
    He's being aimed at the King George Ista. It's hardly a leap of faith is it.... if he wins that like the stayer we all think he is, then it surely becomes an option?

  6. #16
    Quote Originally Posted by Kevloaf View Post
    I know he isn't going for the Ryanair...

    but if wins the King George, do they rule out a Gold Cup?

    If he doesn't wina King George, he looks a helluva lot more vulnerable than he did before he ran?




    You can't make a case for a Gold Cup tilt? You cannot make a case?
    He's being aimed at the King George Ista. It's hardly a leap of faith is it.... if he wins that like the stayer we all think he is, then it surely becomes an option?
    The difference between a 3m King George at Kempton when they go a good gallop for three miles and a 3m 2f Gold Cup at Cheltenham when they get racing a very long way out is world apart in my opinion.

    I think Altior wins the KG and then Henderson allows the horse his chance at history and he wins his third Champion Chase like the superstar that he is.

    Edit - And the Ryanair isnít even a question.

  7. #17
    Champ Kevloaf's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Middle_Of_March View Post
    The difference between a 3m King George at Kempton when they go a good gallop for three miles and a 3m 2f Gold Cup at Cheltenham when they get racing a very long way out is world apart in my opinion.

    I think Altior wins the KG and then Henderson allows the horse his chance at history and he wins his third Champion Chase like the superstar that he is.

    Edit - And the Ryanair isn’t even a question.
    It isn't 'a world' apart though is it?

    A world apart would mean no horse has ever done both. Enough horses have won a King George then had a run in a Gold Cup.


    Whether he wins a Gold Cup isn't even the question... it's IF he wins the King George, is it POSSIBLE then go got the Gold Cup.?

    I'd say it is.



    Good luck to you with your 3/1 shots in March 2019 for March 2020.

    It's bonkers, you're all bonkers.



    Think about what you're saying?


    How short would Altior need to go off to make this bet worthwhile now?



    If you are even halfway sensible you have a staking plan between 1 to 10 points.

    10 pts at 3/1 isn't going to make or break a festival.


    100 pts on now, too much risk on injury.



    I know this is the yankee thread blah blah, but a poor value horse is poor value whether you slap it in with 3 others or not.
    Last edited by Kevloaf; 03-18-2019 at 11:30 PM.

  8. #18
    Quote Originally Posted by Kevloaf View Post
    It isn't 'a world' apart though is it?

    A world apart would mean no horse has ever done both. Enough horses have won a King George then had a run in a Gold Cup.


    Whether he wins a Gold Cup isn't even the question... it's IF he wins the King George, is it POSSIBLE then go got the Gold Cup.?

    I'd say it is.



    Good luck to you with your 3/1 shots in March 2019 for March 2020.

    It's bonkers, you're all bonkers.



    Think about what you're saying?


    How short would Altior need to go off to make this bet worthwhile now?



    If you are even halfway sensible you have a staking plan between 1 to 10 points.

    10 pts at 3/1 isn't going to make or break a festival.


    100 pts on now, too much risk on injury.



    I know this is the yankee thread blah blah, but a poor value horse is poor value whether you slap it in with 3 others or not.
    I’ve just realised the point your making here.

    My shouts on the first post were just names I was throwing out there. I wasn’t suggesting any of them.

    I just wanted to start the thread off with some potentially popular horses.

  9. #19
    Champ Kevloaf's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Middle_Of_March View Post
    I’ve just realised the point your making here.

    My shouts on the first post were just names I was throwing out there. I wasn’t suggesting any of them.

    I just wanted to start the thread off with some potentially popular horses.
    Haha fair enough....

    My point is, even if Altior turns up ON THE DAY in the QMCC, at 1/2 - I still don't think it was a good bet with what we know now at 3/1.


    Risk of injury, target question marks, vulnerable in his last start - are all enough to stop anyone thinking he's a good bet at 3/1.




    I'd be amazed if I'm in the minority thinking 3/1 about a horse 12 months out is too short...

  10. #20
    Quote Originally Posted by Kevloaf View Post
    Haha fair enough....

    My point is, even if Altior turns up ON THE DAY in the QMCC, at 1/2 - I still don't think it was a good bet with what we know now at 3/1.


    Risk of injury, target question marks, vulnerable in his last start - are all enough to stop anyone thinking he's a good bet at 3/1.




    I'd be amazed if I'm in the minority thinking 3/1 about a horse 12 months out is too short...
    I’d probably whack him in the occasional free bet multiple.

    But no. I wouldn’t spend cash on him at 3/1. With 12 months until the race.

    My only antepost bets atm would be Pic D’Orhy at 25s for any race which I’ve done and any double figure price on Klassical Dream for the Arkle.

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