Announcement

Collapse

Fat Jockey Patrons

Fat Jockey is a horse racing community focused on all the big races in the UK and Ireland. We don't charge users but if you have found the site useful then any support towards the running costs is appreciated.
Become a Patron!

You can also make a one-off donation here:
See more
See less

Cheltenham 2020 - Ante post bets

Collapse
X
 
  • Filter
  • Time
  • Show
Clear All
new posts

  • Originally posted by Hamptonfox View Post
    No I don’t choose Fusil Raffles, or any horse, again and again. I choose different ones, usually double figure prices, with a strong likelihood to have one Festival target. Where possible with proven Cheltenham form, and definitely avoid those that have lost multiple times at Cheltenham. Often choose different Festival races so that I can seek to achieve a spread of Festival bets on different horses in different races.

    Then in the two weeks pre-Festival I can focus on the Handicaps and late closing races, and NRNB choices.

    Add in some Long-range big priced singles (which I have listed elsewhere) that type of plan has successfully covered all the bases and led to my two most profitable Festivals in 2018 and 2019. I know that’s not going to last but I ain’t changing the plan until it’s broken.

    I definitely don’t favour having one or two key horses in my antepost betting, who can take the whole plan down if they are injured, run poorly or don’t turn up for other reasons.
    My question was (obviously not very clearly) if Ten Sovereigns doesn't win, will you pick another horse to roll onto Fusil Raffles?

    If the answer is yes, I've failed

    Comment


    • Just pick Sottsass in Arc and be done with it

      His form lines keeps getting better without him even running , Roman Candle yesterday short head behind Headman the latest form (RC also ties nicely in with O'Brien horse Japan). He will put it up to Enable , I have no doubt , whether that will be good enough only time will tell.

      Comment


      • Originally posted by The Beast View Post
        Just pick Sottsass in Arc and be done with it

        His form lines keeps getting better without him even running , Roman Candle yesterday short head behind Headman the latest form (RC also ties nicely in with O'Brien horse Japan). He will put it up to Enable , I have no doubt , whether that will be good enough only time will tell.
        I like Sottsass too, Form is very solid.
        "Journeys to Glory, breathing in his head".

        Comment


        • Originally posted by Kevloaf View Post
          My question was (obviously not very clearly) if Ten Sovereigns doesn't win, will you pick another horse to roll onto Fusil Raffles?

          If the answer is yes, I've failed
          You’ve failed, the answer is no.��
          "Journeys to Glory, breathing in his head".

          Comment


          • Originally posted by Hamptonfox View Post
            You’ve failed, the answer is no.😉
            You would though, wouldn't you ?
            If you had nothing rolling on to Fusil Raffles because Ten Sov's lost. The temptation would be too great to have another go (for a gambler).

            Would you dare leave it unbacked ?

            I'd say NO.

            You'd be looking for the next 'certainty' to use as a stepping stone.

            I definitely would.

            Comment


            • This is the Cheltenham antepost thread not that flat racing muck

              Comment


              • Originally posted by Hamptonfox View Post
                You’ve failed, the answer is no.
                Have I?! I thought I failed if it was yes?



                If Ten Sovereigns does not win, and you include Fusil Raffles in any other bet - then I have failed.

                If Ten Sovereigns wins, you're on Fusil Raffles at a bigger price but he was still poor value

                If Ten Sovereigns loses and you don't back Fusil Raffles again, then I get my way?




                Don't back anything with Fusil Raffles is my end goal unless he's 50/1 plus on his own

                Comment


                • I have Fusil Raffles in my book as a single at big odds (55/1 pre Punchestown).

                  I would choose the Festival horses for these small stakes doubles with a runner at The Ebor Meeting (for example) depending on the make up of my Festival book, and the horses I was keen on backing for the Festival at the time.

                  The point I was trying to make is that I am not wholesale betting a couple of horses for the Festival, I am looking at a wider selection angle for theses bets.

                  Fusil Raffles was one this week, and he may be again dependent on other Festival options I look at as I study video form and antepost markets. I think the Champion Hurdle is lacking depth and have Klassical Dream already that’s why FR this week.

                  Good fun at low cost.
                  Last edited by Saxon Warrior; 16 August 2019, 06:29 PM.
                  "Journeys to Glory, breathing in his head".

                  Comment


                  • Thought i had read that other bookies than 365 had priced up the Ladbrokes Trophy/Gold Cup double but cant find anything.
                    Help Needed Please

                    Comment


                    • Originally posted by somer1 View Post
                      Thought i had read that other bookies than 365 had priced up the Ladbrokes Trophy/Gold Cup double but cant find anything.
                      Help Needed Please
                      Horse racing section, scroll right to the bottom, under ‘Antepost Special Doubles’. Only Santini and TOTG priced up currently, both 50/1.

                      Comment


                      • Up to 3.

                        Champion Hurdle (coral)
                        Buveur D'air @ 8/1 EW


                        Ryanair chase (hills)
                        Min* win @ 12/1


                        JLT chase* (hills)
                        Samcro win @16/1


                        Buveur D'air

                        Not inspirational stuff, but iv seen nothing at all to think that buveur dair isnt still the top dog in the division. Top class performance at punchestown. Imo One of the very best 2 mile hurdlers ive seen, and very much the one to beat. His price is an insult compared to the others around him And for this reason he's One i deffinately want on side.



                        Min*
                        Brilliant performance at aintree. This is his race, and hes the one to beat.

                        Mullins said: “That was impressive — obviously the school around Cheltenham did him well! *He didn't have a hard race at Cheltenham, when he sulked*when we didn't let him do what he wanted to do.

                        “The change of tactics made the difference. We let him enjoy himself and Ruby said fence by fence he was enjoying it more and more.

                        “He’s turned the form around with Politologue from last year and John Hales (Politologue’s owner) just said we’ll have the decider next year.

                        “I thought our horse was very good today. Obviously he didn’t have a hard race in Cheltenham.

                        “I think two and a half is his trip. I’m starting to wonder if he could go a bit further, but two and a half will be fine for the time being.




                        Samcro
                        Simular profile to defi de seuil, he got stuffed by the big boys in open class over hurdles. . But with the huge hype that follows him around. You just know he's going to win a mickey mouse novices chase early on and go into 4/1 before iv even had a chance to weigh it up.
                        The 2 1/2 novice hurdle division looked as weak as anything this year, we all know he can jump a fence, and nowbhe will be running against much lower opposition, he can rebuild his confidence on route and regain the winning thread.
                        https://scooby91horseracingtips.com/
                        Use code "FJ" in your sign up name for bonus content!

                        Comment


                        • Scooby, you are right about a price collapse on SAMCRO, one smooth chasing round on debut and the prices will shrink drastically. For those who fancy Samcro then pre-fence debut is the time to bet.
                          "Journeys to Glory, breathing in his head".

                          Comment


                          • Originally posted by Hamptonfox View Post
                            Scooby, you are right about a price collapse on SAMCRO, one smooth chasing round on debut and the prices will shrink drastically. For those who fancy Samcro then pre-fence debut is the time to bet.
                            Agree about Samcro price collapse IF he comes back to his best , and he shows he can jump. Knowing how highly though Elliott rates him and also the pace he shown in his races i am not so sure he would go to the JLT. I have feeling the more prestigious Arkle would be his race for couple of reasons.

                            First day of festival and it'll be the first chase run , they bound to go off like scolded cats up front and thats perfect for a stayer like Samcro running style to pick them up late.
                            Secondly although he not ground dependant he also guaranteed a lush carpet of grass to race on which hasn't be churned up from previous days racing should he go for JLT.

                            Alot of previous Gold Cup winners go this route and thats where I see Samcro heading following year IF problems behind him.

                            Comment


                            • JLT is ran on a different course, on fresh ground on the thursday.

                              Comment


                              • Originally posted by quevega View Post
                                JLT is ran on a different course, on fresh ground on the thursday.
                                I stand corrected

                                Comment

                                Working...
                                X