Festival Plate 2019

[mayo]

Cant see a thread but merge if I have missed it

2018 Range 137-157 winner 147 places 137 139 138
2017 range 128-158 winner 145 places 146 145 128
2016 Range 135-157winner 142 places 149 150 135
2015 Range 137-155 Winner 140 places 138 141 146

[The King Pimm]

Same here but could do with some advise for this race as my 2 selections Tower Bridge & Ceoage have not been entered. Any advice on replacements? Given Gigginstowns good record in this race they now have a number of entities at the top end of the market....Mengli Khan, Roaring Bull, Hardline etc. I’ve planned for Mengli Khan but that’s because I edited my bet while I could without losing too much value. It’s a punt with no real conviction or confidence

[JackieMoon33]

Spiritofthegames is one I like at present before the official weights are out. He’s got some placed form at Cheltenham and bumped into a well handicapped horse in Kildisart on his last start. This is his ideal trip and is his only entry at the Festival. He was staying on nicely in the last race so I’ve no concerns his stamina will give way. That last race was also run in a reasonably quick time as well.

[The King Pimm]

Thanks Jackie for the advice

[ComplyOrDie]

Belami Des Pictons 20/1 NRNB.

Already had a sizeable bet after Cepage was pulled from the race. Charlie's analysis on Venetia in this race pulled me in and I went through her potential runners and BDP stood out as the one for me.

If he doesn't run so be it, that's why I've taken the NRNB, but if he makes it to the race he will be close to being my best each way shot of the whole festival.

Excusing him for his run LTO, that was off the back of a 450+ day lay off.

His race record since being with Venetia reads 8 starts, 5 wins and a 2nd (this one against Waiting Patiently).

His 2 losses have come off the back of a long lay off. He's had his cobweb blower LTO where he weakened 3 out over 3m, so the drop in trip here should suit now and he'll be fitter for that seasonal debut.

He's rated 146 so falls bang in the middle of where you want to be to go close in a race like this.

He's still very lightly raced for his age. Unsure if this is a positive or negative for this race, something I haven't looked into but I'd say there is plenty more to come from him.

[Ball Mark]

Belami Des Pictons has had a leg. VW pulled it from this weekend big race at Kempton probably due to the ground. Doubt BDP will line up unless there is cut in the ground.

[Big Bucks]

Spiritofthegames is one I like at present before the official weights are out. He’s got some placed form at Cheltenham and bumped into a well handicapped horse in Kildisart on his last start. This is his ideal trip and is his only entry at the Festival. He was staying on nicely in the last race so I’ve no concerns his stamina will give way. That last race was also run in a reasonably quick time as well.

Also has Entry in JLT?

Backed him last year in the County. Suppose might as well back him in this NRNB

[charlie]

Belami Des Pictons 20/1 NRNB.

Already had a sizeable bet after Cepage was pulled from the race. Charlie's analysis on Venetia in this race pulled me in and I went through her potential runners and BDP stood out as the one for me.

If he doesn't run so be it, that's why I've taken the NRNB, but if he makes it to the race he will be close to being my best each way shot of the whole festival.

Excusing him for his run LTO, that was off the back of a 450+ day lay off.

His race record since being with Venetia reads 8 starts, 5 wins and a 2nd (this one against Waiting Patiently).

His 2 losses have come off the back of a long lay off. He's had his cobweb blower LTO where he weakened 3 out over 3m, so the drop in trip here should suit now and he'll be fitter for that seasonal debut.

He's rated 146 so falls bang in the middle of where you want to be to go close in a race like this.

He's still very lightly raced for his age. Unsure if this is a positive or negative for this race, something I haven't looked into but I'd say there is plenty more to come from him.

I'm sold, excellent case.

[ComplyOrDie]

I'm sold, excellent case.

A few people think he may go elsewhere, as in up in trip, but going to stick with him in this race as per your brilliant analysis of Venetia in this race.

[bobbyvalentino]

Heavily punted on his attempted start, and his only run this season, I’m sure the stable think he’s very well handicapped but the betting wouldn’t have suggested he was having a pipe opener? That said, his back form reads well

[Kevloaf]

I really like that CoD.

The second to Waiting Paitently you touch on... even though we know WP was rated too highly on 170, he's still 160s, and over 2m4f getting to 2L of him has him incredibly well in.

The analysis on VW that Charlie did makes the 20/1 NRNB an absolute cracking bet IMO.

I really fancied him off the break LTO so won't lose faith now, especially as you've pointed out him being worse off a break!

I'll get on the bandwagon if there is room.

Just looking back, toffees and jono had him on the radar too.

[jono]

Big fan of Belami des Pictons for this. Though I would be concerned that it was reported he bled having been pulled up. Taking aside fitness it would explain how he quickly weakened last time.

Following the race, the Veterinary Officer reported that BELAMI DES PICTONS (FR), which was pulled up, had bled from the nose.

It doesn't stop a horse winning by any means (Alpha des Obeaux one off the top of my head who bled repeatedly a few seasons ago but has come back in as good a form as ever this season) but always a concern for me once this happens...

[Can't Catch Me]

Quite like Modus for this. 33/1 with Betfred and 28/1 with Hills with the boost. Already as low as 16/1 with Paddy.

He's slightly hit and miss but is very good on his day as he showed when finishing 2nd in the Bumper and 6th in the Coral Cup two years ago off top weight.

He was admittedly pretty disappointing last year when he ran off a mark of 154 in the JLT, but has had his sights considerably lowered to handicaps now and had dropped to a mark of 148 prior to Saturday's run. Looked a clever ploy to run over a trip he was never likely to see out at the weekend and every chance he could drop a couple more pounds.

Needs to brush up his jumping, but if he does put in a clear round, I think he can go very close.

If Im honest I would have preferred him in the Grand Annual as I think a fast run 2m would be ideal but he isn't entered so this looks the race for him and the longer trip might help his jumping a bit.

[Kevloaf]

Quite like Modus for this. 33/1 with Betfred and 28/1 with Hills with the boost. Already as low as 16/1 with Paddy.

He's slightly hit and miss but is very good on his day as he showed when finishing 2nd in the Bumper and 6th in the Coral Cup two years ago off top weight.

He was admittedly pretty disappointing last year when he ran off a mark of 154 in the JLT, but has had his sights considerably lowered to handicaps now and had dropped to a mark of 148 prior to Saturday's run. Looked a clever ploy to run over a trip he was never likely to see out at the weekend and every chance he could drop a couple more pounds.

Needs to brush up his jumping, but if he does put in a clear round, I think he can go very close.

If Im honest I would have preferred him in the Grand Annual as I think a fast run 2m would be ideal but he isn't entered so this looks the race for him and the longer trip might help his jumping a bit.

He's an interesting horse. Danger of over thinking the plot angle?

If you look for it, last time he raced over 2m4f as a chaser he was running in Grade 1's (albeit thrashed in both at Cheltenham and Aintree)...

One to look for the weight of for sure.... 146 I'll be interested to have a deeper look!

[TCH29]

I really like Bouvrieul for this. C&D form. Rejuvenated under Haslam. JP McManus. Haslam has said this is his target.

SkyBet have priced him all wrong at 33s, albeit they did limit the stake.