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  1. #1

    Most Likely Winners

    The Fat Jockey Forum Most Likely Winners......


    Supreme
    Klassical Dream 45%
    Al Dancer 3%
    Angels Breath 29%
    Aramon 3%
    Elixir De Nutz 6%
    Champagne Platinum 3%
    Fakir D'Oudaries 3%
    Mister Fisher 6%
    Arkle
    Cilaos Emery 45%
    Le Richebourg 42%
    Hardline 3%
    Lalor 10%
    Champion Hurdle
    Apples Jade 45%
    Buveur D'Air 34%
    Laurina 10%
    Sharjah 7%
    Melon 3%
    Mares Hurdle
    Benie Des Dieux 82%
    Laurina 18%
    NHC
    Ballyward 19%
    Discorama 6%
    Ok Corral 74%
    Ballymore
    Battleoverdoyen 43%
    Brewinupastorm 7%
    Aramon 3%
    Klassical Dream 3%
    Champ 43%
    RSA
    Delta Work 47%
    Santini 40%
    Topofthegame 13%
    QMCC
    Altior 97%
    Min 3%
    Cross Country
    Tiger Roll 89%
    Mall Dini 4%
    Josies Orders 4%
    Auvergnat 4%
    Bumper
    Andy Dufresne 25%
    Blue Sari 29%
    Envoi Allen 17%
    Ask For Glory 4%
    Thyme Hill 4%
    Eden De Houx 4%
    Blackbow 4%
    Master Debonair 13%
    JLT
    Camelia de Cotte 3%
    Champagne Classic 14%
    DDS 45%
    Lostintranslation 24%
    Drovers Lane 3%
    Real Steel 7%
    Voix Du Reve 3%
    Ryanair
    Min 45%
    Aso 7%
    Top Notch 3%
    Waiting Patiently 10%
    Al Boum Photo 3%
    Monalee 31%
    Stayers Hurdle
    Paisley Park 39%
    Faugheen 3%
    Penhill 55%
    Samcro 3%
    Mares Novice
    Salsaretta 13%
    Honeysuckle 20%
    Epatante 27%
    Ellusive Belle 13%
    Emily Moon 7%
    Sinoria 7%
    Chante Niege 7%
    Buildmeupbuttercup 7%
    Triumph
    Sir Erec 64%
    Quel Destin 7%
    PDO 25%
    Carlo Biraghi 4%
    Albert Bartlett
    Rockpoint 10%
    Rhinestone 3%
    Kateson 21%
    Birchdale 10%
    Champ 3%
    Commander of Fleet 31%
    Dickie Diver 7%
    Dinons 3%
    Lisnagar Oscar 3%
    Easy Game 7%
    Gold Cup
    Kemboy 14%
    Al Boum Photo 7%
    Presenting Percy 72%
    Clan Des Obeaux 7%
    Foxhunters
    Caid Du Berlais 16%
    Fennos Storm 12%
    Gilgamboa 12%
    Hazel Hill 16%
    Pacha du Polder 12%
    Stand Up And Fight 32%

    **** I do not guarantee the statistical accuracy of these results ****



    We've seen 99% of the form, plans are mostly set, time to nail colours to the mast.


    So ignoring current odds and assuming normal Cheltenham ground, what are your MLWs? (non-handicap)


    Supreme: Klassical Dream
    Arkle: Le Richeburg
    Champion Hurdle: Apples Jade
    Mares: Laurina
    NHC: Ballyward
    Ballymore: Battleoverdoyen
    RSA: Delta Work
    Champion Chase: Altior
    Cross Country: Mall Dini
    Champion Bumper: Blue Sari
    JLT: Lostintranslation
    Ryanair: Monalee
    Stayers: Paisley Park
    Mares Novice: Honeysuckle
    Triumph: Sir Erec
    Albert Bartlett: Kateson
    Gold Cup: Presenting Percy
    Foxhunters: Hazel Hill


    That gives the following trainer tally:
    Mullins - 4
    Elliot - 3
    Joseph O'Brien - 2
    HDB - 2
    Patrick Kelly - 2
    Henderson - 1
    Tizzard - 1
    Philip Rowley - 1
    Tom Lacey - 1
    Emma Lavelle - 1

    Interestingly I don't have one for Nicholls, although I expect him to do well (Topofthegame, Pic D'Orhy et al. have great chances). I was also surprised I've only got one Henderson horse down despite him currently having six market favs. I'm probably underestimating him here but I'm against a lot of those based on experience (Angels Breath, Ok Corral). The handicaps I can't take a proper view on till I see the conditions and who lines up on the day, but based on the above I'd say Prestbury Cup is going to Ireland's way again this year. 8/11 lump on job
    Last edited by bobbyvalentino; 02-11-2019 at 05:54 PM.

  2. #2
    ignoring odds, here's your winners at this juncture.

    Supreme: Fakir D'oudaries
    Arkle: Le Richeburg
    Champion Hurdle: Laurina
    Mares: Benie des dieux
    NHC: Ok Corral
    Ballymore: Champ
    RSA: Delta Work
    Champion Chase: Altior
    Cross Country: Tiger Roll
    Champion Bumper: Andy Dufresne
    JLT: Defi Du Seuil
    Ryanair: Monalee
    Stayers: Paisley Park
    Mares Novice: Honeysuckle
    Triumph: Sir Erec
    Albert Bartlett: Commander of Fleet
    Gold Cup: Presenting Percy
    Foxhunters: Pacha du Polder

  3. #3
    Champ Kevloaf's Avatar
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    Pat Kelly to have more festival winners than Nicky Henderson.

    You'd get a price on that Bobby.

  4. #4
    Supreme: angels breath
    Arkle: cilaos emery
    Champion Hurdle: buveur dair
    Mares: Bennie des dieux (just over stormy I)
    NHC: discorama
    Ballymore: Battleoverdoyen
    RSA: topofthegame
    Champion Chase: Altior
    Cross Country: auvergnat
    Champion Bumper: ( winner hasn't ran yet)
    JLT: defi de seuil
    Ryanair: min
    Stayers: Paisley park
    Mares Novice: (winner hasn't ran yet)
    Triumph: (winner hasn't ran yet)
    Albert Bartlett: easy game
    Gold Cup: al boum photo
    Foxhunters: ucello conti

  5. #5
    Supreme: Mister Fisher
    Arkle: Le Richeburg
    Champion Hurdle: Buveur Dair
    Mares: Laurina
    NHC: OK Coral
    Ballymore: Champ
    RSA: Delta Work
    Champion Chase: Altior
    Cross Country: Tiger Roll
    Champion Bumper: Envoi Allen
    JLT: Lostintranslation
    Ryanair: Monalee
    Stayers: Penhill
    Mares Novice: Epatante
    Triumph: Sir Erec
    Albert Bartlett: Dinons
    Gold Cup: Presenting Percy
    Foxhunters: Gilgamboa

  6. #6
    Quote Originally Posted by Kevloaf View Post
    Pat Kelly to have more festival winners than Nicky Henderson.

    You'd get a price on that Bobby.
    I would definitely consider a dabble, not sure who would price that kind of bet. That said I had Nicky's down as NB for quite a few of those.

  7. #7
    Top Amateur jono's Avatar
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    Supreme: Klassical Dream
    Arkle: Cilaos Emery
    Champion Hurdle: Buveur D'Air*
    Mares: Benie des Dieux
    NHC: Ok Corral*
    Ballymore: Battleoverdoyen
    RSA: Santini
    Champion Chase: Altior
    Cross Country: Tiger Roll
    Champion Bumper: Andy Dufresne
    JLT: Defi du Seuil*
    Ryanair: Min*
    Stayers: Penhill*
    Mares Novice: Mullins
    Triumph: Sir Erec (Though Pic D'Orhy if runs)
    Albert Bartlett: Kateson
    Gold Cup: Presenting Percy
    Foxhunters: Stand Up and Fight

    Altior and Presenting Percy the only 2 i'm very confident on out of the lot, Altior of course a certainty
    I have a feeling this year could throw out a whole host of unexpected results though. A season of delays, setbacks, unusual ground will probably mean a fair bit of the form we have seen could be turned upside down.

    Albert Bartlett is still a minefield imo as is the Bumper. Mares Novice rightly or wrongly I still side with the view Mullins must have one better than what we have seen. [Supreme] is very much a case of seeing how good Angels Breath actually is. Will very much come down to if they get another run into him and if he can prove he deserves his place at the head of the market but until then, I couldn't side with him. Finally the RSA is a belter of a race but i'm actually on the fence with a preference. For all I loved Santini's debut, valid excuses at Kempton, there's a nagging doubt there especially after Hendersons recent blog on him being the slowest horse he's trained. The Reynoldstown performance needs to be a good one... Those are the races i'm least sure of right now

    *races I see very much as match bets. Buveur vs Apples / Min vs Monalee / Penhill vs Paisley Park but preference for the selected.

    Gives the following to each trainer:

    Henderson - 5
    Mullins - 5
    Elliott - 3
    O'Brien - 1
    Kelly - 1
    Hobbs - 1
    Lacey - 1
    Bolger - 1

    Henderson will need to go out all guns blazing on the first 2 days to get his winners, as I can't see many winners on the second 2 days. Can see the first 2 days going in a similar vein to last year where Elliott struggled on day 1 where Mullins pulled away but Elliott then recovers Tuesday. If the above is correct though Elliott will need to fire in a few in the handicaps. Friday put a stop to the Mullins/Henderson/Elliott juggernaut and will be the day for the 'smaller trainers'

  8. #8
    Supreme: Klassical Dream
    Arkle: Le Richebourg
    Champion: Apples Jade
    Mares: Laurina
    NH Chase: OK Corral
    Ballymore: Brewinupastorm
    RSA: Santini
    QMCC: Altior
    X Country: Tiger Roll
    Bumper: Blackbow
    JLT: DDS
    Ryanair: Waiting Patiently
    Stayers: Penhill
    Mares Novice: Not a clue
    Triumph: Sir Erec
    Potato: Birchdale
    Gold Cup: Presenting Percy
    Foxhunters: SUAF

  9. #9
    5lb Claimer
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    Supreme: Angels Breath
    Arkle: Le Richebourg
    Champion Hurdle : BVD
    Mares: Laurina
    NHC: Ballyward
    Ballymore: Champ
    RSA: Santini
    Champion Chase: Altior
    X Country: Tiger Roll
    Bumper: Andy Dufresne
    JLT: Defi du Seuil
    Ryainair: Min
    Stayers: Paisley Park
    Mares nov: Elusive Belle
    Triumph: Pic D’orhy
    Bartlett: Relegate
    Gold Cup: Presenting Percy
    Foxhunters: Fennos Storm
    Last edited by lloydy; 02-10-2019 at 05:08 PM.

  10. #10
    Supreme: Angels Breath
    Arkle: Cilaos Emery
    Champion Hurdle : Apples Jade
    Mares: BDD
    NHC: Discorama
    Ballymore: Brewin’upastorm
    RSA: Topofthegame
    Champion Chase: Altior
    X Country: Tiger Roll
    Bumper: Master Debonair
    JLT: Lostintranslation
    Ryainair: Monalee
    Stayers: Penhill
    Mares nov: Mullins
    Triumph: Pic D’orhy
    Bartlett: Kateson
    Gold Cup: ABP
    Foxhunters: Fennos Storm

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