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  1. #1
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    Owner / Trainer Handicap Analysis - 2008 - 2018

    A few days ago I posted about JP McManus’ handicap record at Cheltenham over the past 10 years. After very kind words and a call for this to have its own thread, I thought I’d allocate this its own space and also start to look at other trainers / owners as we lead up towards the festival. Hurricane Fly mentioned David Pipe so I have added him because the ‘Pipe Plot’ is as common a phrase as the ‘JP Plot’.

    If anyone has any trainer/owner requests happy to oblige, providing they have been around from 2008 - 2018 (not much point looking at smaller sample sizes)

    JP McManus Handicap Performance 2008 – 2018

    Runners / Winners / Losing Fav / Placed 1-3

    Ultima
    11 / 2 / 3 / 1
    2 winners
    2012 - Alfie Sherrin 14/1
    2009 - Wichita Lineman 5/1f

    Close Brothers
    14 / 0 / 2 / 3

    Cross Country (Handicap from 2008 – 2015)
    21 / 2 / 3 / 5
    2009 - Garde Champetre 7/2f (he had the 1,2,3 that year)
    2008 - Garde Champetre 4/1

    Coral Cup
    24 / 0 / 3 / 2

    Pertemps
    27 / 0 / 3 / 4

    Brown Advisory
    17 / 0 / 3 / 3

    Kim Muir
    19 / 2 / 2 / 3
    2016 - Cause Of Causes 9/2f
    2012 - Sunnyhillboy 13/2

    Martin Pipe
    16 / 0 / 2 / 1

    County Hurdle
    30 / 1 / 3 / 1 / 2
    2012 - Alderwood 20/1

    Grand Annual
    26 / 3 / 3 / 2
    2018 - Le Prezien 15/2
    2013 - Alderwood 3/1f
    2012 - Bellvano 20/1

    The ‘Plot’

    Garde Champetre 2009 - 11-12 – top weight
    Sunnyhillboy – 11-11 – 2/23 in the weights
    Cause Of Causes – 11-9 – 5/22 in the weights
    Garde Champetre 2008 – 10-13- 6/16 in the weights
    Le Prezien 11-8 – 6/22 in the weights
    Wichita Lineman - 10-9 – 12/21 in the weights
    Alderwood 2012 – 11-1 – 13/26 in the weights
    Alderwood 2013 – 10-11 – 13/23 in the weights
    Bellvano - 10-2 – 15/21 in the weights
    Alfie Sherrin - 10-0 – Bottom weight

    Summary

    Total Handicap Runners: 205
    Winners: 10 (4.8% strike rate)
    Placed: 26 (12% strike rate)

    27 (13%) of JP handicap runners have gone off favourite.
    4 (14%) of those went on to win.
    In the last 10 years Pendra, Bouvreuil & Get Me Out Of Here accounted for 43% of all his placed runners.

    A £10 level stake across all his handicap runners from 2008-2018 would leave you down - £860.

    The JP ‘plot job’ has little to no substance to it. Other than Alfie Sherrin who crept in off bottom weight, 50% of his winners were towards the top end of the weights. Nearly 15% of all his runners go off fav in handicaps because the public believe of ‘the plot’, but I suppose that’s good for the horses left in behind at bigger prices that we can all get stuck into.

    JP Handicappers with Festival Experience/Form

    Squouateur
    2016 - Martin Pipe – 7/24
    2017 - Kim Muir – UR
    2018 - Kim Muir – 3/20

    Cheltenham 2019 - Kim Muir – 16/1

    Bouvreuil
    2015 - Fred Winter – 2/22
    2016 - Close Brothers – 2/20
    2017 - Brown Advisory – 3/24
    2018 - Grand Annual – BD

    Cheltenham 2019 - Grand Annual - 33/1

    Ivanovich Gorbatov
    2016 – Triumph* - 1/15
    2017 – County Hurdle – 6/25
    2018 - County Hurdle – 17/25

    Cheltenham 2019 – County Hurdle – 33/1

    Le Prezien
    2017 - Grand Annual – 8/24
    2018 - Grand Annual – 1/22

    No Comment
    2017 - Martin Pipe – 7/23
    2018 - National Hunt Chase – 6/16

    Place Form 2018

    Glenloe – Pertemps – 2/23
    Early Doors - Martin Pipe – 3/23

    The L15

    Squouateur - Kim Muir – 16/1
    Ivanovich Gorbatov - County Hurdle – 33/1
    Bouvreuil - Grand Annual - 33/1
    Glenloe – Ultima – 20/1

  2. #2
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    David Pipe Handicap Performance 2008 – 2018

    Runners / Winners / Losing Fav / Placed 1-3

    Ultima
    14 / 3 / 1 / 2
    2017 - Un Temps Pour Tout - 11-12 - 9/1
    2016 - Un Temps Pour Tout - 11-7 - 11/1
    2008 - An Accordion 7/1

    Close Brothers
    5 / 0 / 0 / 0

    Cross Country (Handicap from 2008 – 2015)
    1 / 0 / 0 / 0

    Coral Cup
    15 / 0 / 1 / 0

    Pertemps
    22 / 2 / 2 / 3
    2011 - Buena Vista - 10-8 - 20/1
    2010 - Buena Vista - 10-4 - 16/1

    Brown Advisory
    18 / 3 / 2 / 2
    2014 – Ballynagour 12/1
    2012 - Salut Flo 9/2f
    2010 - Great Endeavour 18/1

    Kim Muir
    28 / 2 / 2 / 2
    2015 - The Package 9/1
    2011 – Junior 10/3f

    Martin Pipe
    18 / 0 / 3 / 1

    County Hurdle
    10 / 0 / 0 / 0

    Grand Annual
    8 / 0 / 1 / 2

    Summary

    Total Handicap Runners: 139
    Winners: 10 (7%)
    Placed: 12 (9.3%)


    12 (9%) of David Pipe trained horses have gone off favourite
    2 (16%) of those went on to win

    A £10 level stake across all his handicap runners from 2008-2018 would leave you down -£220

    Season / Cheltenham Winners / Handicap Entries / Total NH Runners

    2018 – 0 – 7 - 361
    2017 – 1 – 3 - 487
    2016 – 1 - 4 571
    2015 – 1 – 11 - 579
    2014 – 1 - 10 591
    2013 – 0 – 13 - 624
    2012 – 1 - 16 632
    2011 – 2 – 13 - 504
    2010 – 2 – 12 - 562
    2009 – 0 – 18 - 662
    2008 – 1 – 14 - 698

    During the 2011-12 season David Pipe had 632 NH runners and 16 Handicap runners at Cheltenham
    Last year, David Pipe had 361 NH runners and only 7 Handicap runners at Cheltenham.

    His number of NH runners have generally been on the decline which is reflected in the number he sends to Cheltenham. From 2008 -2015 he was always sending at least 10 handicappers to Cheltenham. In the last 3 years he has sent 14.

    The ‘Plot’

    Buena Vista & Un Temps Pour Tout account for 4/10 of his wins in the last decade.

    I don’t think they can be described as plots. Un Temps Pour Tout was top weight when winning in 2017 & 9/23 in the weights when winning in 2016. Buena Vista was well handicapped when winning off 10-4 in 2010 which was 17/24 in the weights, and then off 10-8 in 2011 which was 11/22 in the weights

    Conclusion

    David Pipe places horses with festival form very well but the plot, similar to JP MacManus owned horses, is a myth. 9% of Pipe runners go off favourite in handicaps with only 2 of those going on to win. Pipe appears to have little interest in the Grand Annual, County Hurdle, Close Brothers and Cross Country. 46% of all his runners over the last decade have gone to the Kim Muir, Pertemps and Ultima.

    Basically, he is not the force of old but because he has placed his horses well in the same races and landed a couple of back-to-back wins, there is this notion that Pipe ‘plot jobs’ happen regularly which they don't.

  3. #3
    Paul Nicholls Charlie ?

  4. #4
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    Quote Originally Posted by mayo View Post
    Paul Nicholls Charlie ?
    Good idea, I'l do that tomorrow.

  5. #5
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    ....fascinating stuff. I’m really not sure what the definition of a ‘plot horse’ is. Presumably one that’s been run to protect its handicap mark, and is particularly well in. Perhaps a significant price contraction is also a factor.

    Be good if such horses could be retrospectively identified to determine owner/stable responsible.
    Last edited by Eggs; 02-04-2019 at 03:36 PM.

  6. #6
    Quote Originally Posted by Eggs View Post
    ....fascinating stuff. I’m really not sure what the definition of a ‘plot horse’ is. Presumably one that’s been run to protect its handicap mark, and is particularly well in. Perhaps a significant price contraction is also a factor.

    Be good if such horses could be retrospectively identified to determine owner/stable responsible.
    be miles better to identify them before they run.

  7. #7
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    Quote Originally Posted by quevega View Post
    be miles better to identify them before they run.
    ...brilliant. Thousands of pages dedicated to that on here.

  8. #8
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    Paul Nicholls Handicap Performance 2008 – 2018

    Runners / Winners / Losing Fav / Placed 1-3

    Ultima
    12 / 0 / 0 / 0

    Close Brothers
    13 / 1 / 2 / 1
    2009 – Chapoturgeon 8/1

    Cross Country (Handicap from 2008 – 2015)
    4 / 0 / 0 / 0

    Coral Cup
    17 / 1 / 0 / 2
    2015 - Aux Ptit Soins 9/1

    Pertemps
    14 / 0 / 2 / 3

    Fred Winter
    19 / 3 / 1 / 5
    2016 - Diego Du Charmil 13/2 (1/2 with Diego Du Charmil & Romain De Senam)
    2015 – Qualando 25/1 (1/2 with Qualando & Bouvreuil)
    2010 – Sanctuaire 4/1jf

    Brown Advisory
    17 / 0 / 1 / 2

    Kim Muir
    8 / 0 / 0 / 0

    Martin Pipe
    18 / 2 / 0 / 1
    2016 - Ibis Du Rheu 14/1
    2013 – Salubrious 16/1

    County Hurdle
    16 / 2 / 1 / 1
    2014 - Lac Fontana 11/1
    2009 - American Trilogy 20/1

    Grand Annual
    20 / 3 / 3 / 0
    2018 – Le Prezien 15/2
    2016 - Solar Impulse 28/1
    2008 – Andreas 12/1

    Summary

    Total Handicap Runners: 158
    Winners: 12 (7.5% strike rate)
    Placed: 15 (10%)


    10 out of his 12 winners are French Bred.

    10 losing favourites
    1 winning favourite

    A £10 level stake across all his handicap runners from 2008-2018 would leave you up £130

    His average priced winner is 16/1

    Race Summary

    His record in the Ultima, Kim Muir & Cross Country is not good. 24 runners, no winners, no places, no favourites. The same can be said for the Pertemps and Brown Advisory, 31 bullets and never won.

    10 (83%) of his winners have come from the Fred Winter, Martin Pipe, County Hurdle and Grand Annual.

    A £10 level stake across these 4 races would leave you up £810.


    Season / Cheltenham Winners / Handicap Entries / Total NH Runners

    Despite not having the graded horses he once did, his entries and handicap numbers are very consistent as you can see below:

    2018 – 1 – 14 -576
    2017 – 0 – 17 - 673
    2016 – 3 – 19 - 568
    2015 – 2 – 15 - 517
    2014 – 1 – 17 - 587
    2013 – 1 – 13 - 565
    2012 – 0 – 10 - 598
    2011 – 0 – 9 – 583
    2010 – 1 – 16 - 533
    2009 – 2 – 13 - 614
    2008 – 1 – 16 - 610

    The ‘Plot’

    With 1 winning favourite, 10 losing favourites and an average SP on winners of 16/1 the Paul Nicholls plot (which isn’t a common term anyway) does not exist. I am only mentioning that because of how this thread started.

    It’s clear the vast majority of his handicap winners go under the radar.

    Conclusion

    Again, probably not reaching conclusions people on here haven’t reached already, but Paul Nicholls is a benchmark of consistency. He is consistently poor in the Ultima, Kim Muir, Cross Country, Pertemps and Brown Advisory, and consistently strong in the Fred Winter, Martin Pipe, County Hurdle and Grand Annual. 83% of his handicap winners in the last decade have come from these 4 races where he has won 10/73. 75% of his handicap winners have gone off double figure prices so don’t be put off by larger prices. I'l get round to creating a list of his potential runners in the Fred Winter, Martin Pipe, County Hurdle and Grand Annual at some point.

  9. #9
    Champ Kevloaf's Avatar
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    I'm surprised his record isn't good in the Ultima and Brown Plate .... he's clearly good with staying chasers and has won plenty of big staying chasee handicaps.

  10. #10
    Only covers handicaps this Kev, Gold Cups and Foxhunters in which he excelled over the years aren’t included.

    If you get time Charlie I’d be interested to see Jonjo’s record....

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