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COuld have the Nicholls "hyped-up double"..... agic Saint and Give Me A Copper.
Absolute shocking prices on their form?
Bit unfair, he wasn't 5/1 a few weeks back, I got 8/1 and I am sure the few in the know got much bigger prices... when they say things like a G1 horse in a handicap and reminds people of master mind, you have to take note... and if he romps home then 5/1 will look pretty tasty, but would not be shocked if he lost or won by 10L at much less odds than 5/1... IMHO
Bit unfair, he wasn't 5/1 a few weeks back, I got 8/1 and I am sure the few in the know got much bigger prices... when they say things like a G1 horse in a handicap and reminds people of master mind, you have to take note... and if he romps home then 5/1 will look pretty tasty, but would not be shocked if he lost or won by 10L at much less odds than 5/1... IMHO
Bit unfair, he wasn't 5/1 a few weeks back, I got 8/1 and I am sure the few in the know got much bigger prices... when they say things like a G1 horse in a handicap and reminds people of master mind, you have to take note... and if he romps home then 5/1 will look pretty tasty, but would not be shocked if he lost or won by 10L at much less odds than 5/1... IMHO
What bit was unfair? I asked if he's a good bet at 5/1 and said he's a shocking price on his actual form?
I disagree that you HAVE to take note of Paul Nicholls being bullish about his horses... he may well win, but 5/1 is a short price to find out if he is.... and I am certain he isn't the next Masterminded.
Comes down to personal preferences, but 5/1 in a 20 runner 2 mile handicap chase isn't going to be value in my opinion without knowing he was already a group horse running off a low weight.
He can win and win well at that price?
....and I did have him in two multiples at 8/1.... as ever, it's all price related. I don't think 8/1 is outstanding value either
He has an engine, and could turn out to be extremely well handicapped, but I'm really worried about his jumping. He doesn't attack his fences like a top class 2 miler imo, and in a big field, I could easily see him being knocked out of his jumping rhythm.
I'd snap your hand off for double figures but I'm not remotely interested at 5/1 or shorter.
What bit was unfair? I asked if he's a good bet at 5/1 and said he's a shocking price on his actual form?
I disagree that you HAVE to take note of Paul Nicholls being bullish about his horses... he may well win, but 5/1 is a short price to find out if he is.... and I am certain he isn't the next Masterminded.
Comes down to personal preferences, but 5/1 in a 20 runner 2 mile handicap chase isn't going to be value in my opinion without knowing he was already a group horse running off a low weight.
He can win and win well at that price?
....and I did have him in two multiples at 8/1.... as ever, it's all price related. I don't think 8/1 is outstanding value either
I do not think it was only Paul Nicholls that put him up, in nearly every preview one of the panel named him as a good thing, I am sure it wasn't just because paul liked him.. 5/1 is crap but he is only that price because people keep backing him...
Lots of people are talking up KD in the supreme or ballymore and he could well go off near fav... So this brings me back to Magic saint who in France give KD weight and a 8L beating... surely if KD gets anywhere near winner one of them races, then MS is a knocking bet in a handicap, regardless what price he is... AD won the betfair hurdle with a rating of 141 and 11.8 on his back at 5/2, MS has 11.5 on his back and is rated of 149.
The more I look at Magic Saint the more I think he is the bet of the meeting.... if KD was in this race or even AD with 11.5 they would be a lot shorter than 5/1 IMO...
Last edited by Sirbetalot; 10 March 2019, 08:34 AM.
Lots of people are talking up KD in the supreme or ballymore and he could well go off near fav... So this brings me back to Magic saint who in France give KD weight and a 8L beating... surely if KD gets anywhere near winner one of them races, then MS is a knocking bet in a handicap, regardless what price he is... AD won the betfair hurdle with a rating of 141 and 11.8 on his back at 5/2, MS has 11.5 on his back and is rated of 149.
The more I look at Magic Saint the more I think he is the bet of the meeting.... if KD was in this race or even AD with 11.5 they would be a lot shorter than 5/1 IMO...
Some very different races and tenuous comparisons in that Sir.
But I hope it is very good as i've backed it.
Need a lot of luck in that race though, probably more so than any other race at the festival IMO.
Which is why many would think he's too short a price at 5-1.
Some very different races and tenuous comparisons in that Sir.
But I hope it is very good as i've backed it.
Need a lot of luck in that race though, probably more so than any other race at the festival IMO.
Which is why many would think he's too short a price at 5-1.
Totally agree, thats why I will be hoping he keeps him near the front and stays out of trouble.. Harry Cobden is a good jockey...
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