Multipes Strategy for 2019

[robith]

Posted this in the ante post thread, but perhaps worthwhile throwing here:

Last year I had a bit of a success with an each way ante post lucky 15 backing horses who'd won or placed at the previous festival (Monalee, Melon, Might Bite & Willoughby Court RIP)

Been looking at this again for this year, but coming up with similar names (prices with Betfair)

Melon - 10/1
Monalee - 10/1
Mengli Khan - 16/1
Penhill 5/1 (cowardly - I really want to put Black Op in here but a) i'm sketchy on failed chasers going back that season and b) the form of the Ballymore looks less strong this season)

12341/1

I think there's also a shorter odds former winners one to do - BVD, Altior, Delta Work, Penhill

[Kevloaf]

There is a big angle for it to my mind, and I think we've run 'the stats' on it before to see if it's profitable at level stakes at SP.

This "worry" this year, would be last years form was on bad ground, so might be worth avoiding, especially with such contrasting ground so far.


I'd probably have Presenting Percy in any multiple with Monalee now, if Monalee wins the Ryanair, you would be shocked if Percy isn't going close in a Gold Cup?

[The Don]

Tiger Roll / stand up and fight double 27-1

[Arkle]

Coo star siviola 25/1
Le prezien 20/1
Implusive star 14/1
Road to respect 11/1

E/W L15
Would expect all to give a good run for e/w places at prices

[Arkle]

Tiger Roll / stand up and fight double 27-1

Like that double

[Istabraq]

Like that double

Me too.
Just added Santini and Native River for separate trixies too...

[charlie]

All these have been to the festival multiple times which is worth its weight in gold for EW multiples IMO.

Coo Star Sivola
2018 - 1st Ultima
2017 - 4th Martin Pipe
2016 - 3rd Fred Winter

Tully East
2018 - no run
2017 - 1st Close Brothers
2016 - 4th Martin Pipe

Barra
2018 - 3rd Coral Cup
2017 - 2nd Mares Novice

Supasundae
2018 - 2nd Stayers
2017 - 1st Coral Cup
2016 - 7th in THAT Supreme
2015 - 6th Champion Bumper

Mall Dini
2018 - 2nd Kim Muir
2017 - 5th Kim Muir
2016 - 1st Pertemps

Missed Approach
2018 - 1st Kim Muir
2017 - 2nd National Hunt Chase

[ComplyOrDie]

All these have been to the festival multiple times which is worth its weight in gold for EW multiples IMO.

Coo Star Sivola
2018 - 1st Ultima
2017 - 4th Martin Pipe
2016 - 3rd Fred Winter

Tully East
2018 - no run
2017 - 1st Close Brothers
2016 - 4th Martin Pipe

Barra
2018 - 3rd Coral Cup
2017 - 2nd Mares Novice

Supasundae
2018 - 2nd Stayers
2017 - 1st Coral Cup
2016 - 7th in THAT Supreme
2015 - 6th Champion Bumper

Mall Dini
2018 - 2nd Kim Muir
2017 - 5th Kim Muir
2016 - 1st Pertemps

Missed Approach
2018 - 1st Kim Muir
2017 - 2nd National Hunt Chase

You forgot Ivanovich Gorbatov

[charlie]

You forgot Ivanovich Gorbatov

I've been trying to forget Ivanovich Gorbatov for years!

[ComplyOrDie]

I've been trying to forget Ivanovich Gorbatov for years!

I don't think you'll be alone on that!

[robith]

There is a big angle for it to my mind, and I think we've run 'the stats' on it before to see if it's profitable at level stakes at SP.

This "worry" this year, would be last years form was on bad ground, so might be worth avoiding, especially with such contrasting ground so far.


I'd probably have Presenting Percy in any multiple with Monalee now, if Monalee wins the Ryanair, you would be shocked if Percy isn't going close in a Gold Cup?

Yes, Kev -that multiple was naturally off the back of a lot of people on here's hard work. But the watch out on the translation of last year's form is important to remember

[Faugheen_Machine]

I think Al Dancer is a shoe in for the Betfair tomorrow. If he wins impressively it may persuade connections to push Angels Breath up in trip.

I don't see much downside in having a small double of Al Dancer (Supreme) / Angels Breath (Ballymore) @120/1 NRNB

[ComplyOrDie]

I think Al Dancer is a shoe in for the Betfair tomorrow. If he wins impressively it may persuade connections to push Angels Breath up in trip.

I don't see much downside in having a small double of Al Dancer (Supreme) / Angels Breath (Ballymore) @120/1 NRNB

I like Didtheyleaveuoutto for the Betfair. Don't think he'll be anywhere near winning a Supreme though.

[Humble Pie]

All these have been to the festival multiple times which is worth its weight in gold for EW multiples IMO.

Coo Star Sivola
2018 - 1st Ultima
2017 - 4th Martin Pipe
2016 - 3rd Fred Winter


Tully East

Good list
2018 - no run
2017 - 1st Close Brothers
2016 - 4th Martin Pipe

Barra
2018 - 3rd Coral Cup
2017 - 2nd Mares Novice

Supasundae
2018 - 2nd Stayers
2017 - 1st Coral Cup
2016 - 7th in THAT Supreme
2015 - 6th Champion Bumper

Mall Dini
2018 - 2nd Kim Muir
2017 - 5th Kim Muir
2016 - 1st Pertemps

Missed Approach
2018 - 1st Kim Muir
2017 - 2nd National Hunt Chase

Good list
Placed this ew patent this morning

Champagne Classic 12/1 NHC
Glen Forsa. 40/1 JLT ( fingers crossed doesn’t go Arkle)
Easy Game. 25/1 AB

[jugofpunch66]

Enjoyed reading through this thread this morning. Always fascinating to hear about other peoples betting strategies.
My book is usually heavily staggered towards multiples as opppsed to singles. I'll tend to have more chunky singles on the morning of the race (I like to monitor the evening and early morning markets). I tend to back AP horses predominantly between mid-December and mid Feb - this usually helps me steer clear of the festival preview night hype horses that start getting thrown around. I'm a huge fan of Trixies for horses that I'm quite sweet on and have narrowed down their potential race based on trainer quotes. I do also have the odd yankees on handicaps, often at slightly bigger odds in the chase for a changemaker.

My biggest fear is of course horses not turning up (e.g. Cracking Smart in the AB last year... it still hurts!), but secondly its ground. I try to factor this into some of my AP trixies too!