Ultima Handicap Chase 2019

[Faugheen_Machine]

Talkischeap into 16/1 with the cashout bookies

They must be lurking

I think there must be a huge community of lurkers on here, judging by how many people have read each thread.

It could be the lurkers moving markets.

[thistlecracker]

As mentioned in the handicaps thread I think it’s time we had individual threads for the handicaps to avoid some of the good suggestions being lost amongst each other.

The opening handicap of the week and, unlike most of the other handicaps where everyone is seemingly trying to find the Irish plot horses, this one has been very much dominated by the Brits – in fact, there wasn’t a single Irish-trained runner in the field last year. This should mean there is a little less uncertainty to factor in.

It's clearly been a race where progressive types have thrived – novices and 2nd season chasers. A quick check on Gaultstats backs up this assumption. As you work down the market there seems to be a good number of seasoned chasers who look to have found themselves on lofty marks, the likes of:
Singlefarmpayment - finds himself on a career high mark without having won for 2 years, 6lb higher than when just done by UTPT in 2017 and 3lb higher than when beaten much further in last year’s race. His 2 runs so far this season have been decent but questions remain about his appetite for a battle up the run-in. Weak favourite.
UTPT - could be back for yet another crack. Now 10yo on a career high mark of 158 and only 1 run since winning this in 2017. Entered up on Saturday and if he could drop a few lbs between now and the festival then he’ll no doubt have his followers on the day. Not an AP proposition at this stage though.
O O Seven – well down the field in this last year off the same mark (152) that he currently sits on – has struggled to be competitive from 150+ in the past. Has won at Cheltenham but best results have seemingly come at flatter tracks. Likely to be aimed at the Topham or National and may take this race in along the way but is not one I see as a factor.
Beware The Bear – Another Nicky contender who finds himself on 152 after his win at the course on NYD. Was 4th in the race last year off 150 after being badly outpaced before coming home strongly, but the race was well out of his grasp by that point. Looks all over a marathon type and likely to be caught out again in a competitive and fast run 3 mile festival handicap. Not sure why he was so disappointing in the Scottish National last year but that looks the obvious race for him.
Yala Enki – another who finds himself on a career high mark (156) after a good performance in the Welsh National. A well beaten 6th in this last year off 152 and in this kind of company he needs a bigger stamina test.
Cogry – admirable sort but well beaten in this last year off 4lb lower

There are also a number of horses towards the top of the market who look very unlikely to line up…

Mall Dini – Interesting wherever he turns up but I’d suggest this is one of the unlikelier destinations
Cepage – Having never raced over 3m you’d have to think the Plate is a much more likely destination
Go Conquer – Rooney-owned. Say no more.
The Worlds End – It actually wouldn’t be a huge surprise to see him go here but off 155 he’d likely to be very near top weight and that will be a big challenge for a novice who seemingly blows hot and cold. Not sure a big rough handicap is what he wants.

So, putting a line through all of the above, I’ve tried to pick out a few who I think look likely types:

Talkischeap – my one and only bet in the race so far. I've liked his 2 performances this season against LBAR and Lostintranslation, staying on well on both occasions over intermediate trips. Already a 3m winner over hurdles there's good reason to suspect there will be more improvement to come when stepped up in trip. Alan King has won this race a couple of times in the past, once with a novice (Fork Lightning) and his other winner (Bensalem) also went for this race as a novice when looking the likely winner before falling 2 out - he then came back and won it the following year. I have toyed with the any race markets for this horse but quite frankly this is the race I'd fancy him for so I'm happy to take the bigger price and hopefully have a cash out fallback if he looks to be heading elsewhere.

Give Me A Copper – Interesting horse. Highly regarded by PFN and I had an eye on him with a view to the Hennessy this year but I believe he’s suffered with a number of minor setbacks. He was declared to run at Cheltenham on NYD but was withdrawn due to the ground. There’s a whole heap of potential there and I’m interested to see him in the coming weeks. Having been off for so long I’d imagine his next start will be a cobweb-blower and it’ll be a watching brief for me with a potential view to a race like this. Nicholls handicappers are to be feared at the festival but interestingly Gaultstats make a point of the fact that he doesn’t have a good record in this race. Not sure if there’s anything in that. 20/1 NRNB with Sky is very tempting.

Dingo Dollar – Another for Alan King he’s a progressive 2nd season chaser who ran a really good race in the Hennessy on unsuitably soft ground. He beat Beware The Bear 15L that day off level weights and that horse would now have to give Dingo Dollar 4lb, yet BTB is further up the betting. 14s NRNB is too low but 25/1 with B365 is very fair.

Jerrysback – He’s interesting wherever he goes after winning a shade cosily at Bangor and then finishing his race off nicely when chasing home Vinndication. 25/1 would look a cracking bet if he lined up here but that is far from certain.

White Moon – Jocked up at Warwick at the weekend over 3m and his further target will probably be greatly impacted by what happens there. On his current mark the Close Bros is still in the equation but I think Colin sees him as a 3 miler and should he prove that on Saturday (without winning) then the Ultima becomes a real possibility. If he wins on Saturday then they’ll undoubtedly take the Grade 1 route. 25/1 NRNB is reasonable.

Coo Star Sivola – Well I couldn’t preview this race without mentioning the reigning champion. Back down to a mark just 3lb higher than for winning this last year, albeit that’s because of a few lacklustre displays which you need to forgive. Highly likely to be targeted here again though and I wouldn’t put anyone off the 33/1 with B365.

1 bet so far – Talkischeap 1pt EW 25/1.

Fantastic write up, really do enjoy this forum and the vast opinions and knowledge shared among members. I wished my job allowed me to contribute more and review more races but I do my best going to as much live racing as possible.

Had already followed you in a few weeks back purely based on your initial post but only 0.5 EW... o try not to get too involved in the handicaps at least until the weights are published

[jono]

Super opening post VF.

My only bet so far for this race specifically is Coo Star Sivola (40/1), was on him last year and there's little that puts me off this time, festival form is as solid as you could want. At the price he's an absolute no brainer imo. I hope they get a confidence boosting run into him before the festival though, even if that's a run out over hurdles.

Very solid case made for Talkischeap. Yet to back but will almostly certainly do that shortly. Can see him being a real shortener and 100% single figures by the time the preview nights roll up.

I have of course mentioned The Worlds End (backed any race at 25/1) for this race previously. My hope was for him to get another run in away from Cheltenham, go down a couple of pounds but the owners have said he's almost certain to go straight to the festival now (and will be avoiding right handed tracks) which means he'll have to win off 155. But they have at the same time (as Scooby highlighted in the RSA thread) namechecked the Ultima as a possible now. Personally still think he can be competitive and wouldn't rule him out off that mark but there's no leeway and you'd have to think there will likely be one or two lower weighted. That said Singlefarmpayment was a 'good thing' in 2017 and UTPT managed to repel all that day...though that probably boils down more to SFP's finish in a race than UTPT off top weight!! I imagine Heskin will be back in time (next scans end of January will tell more) but I'd see it as a huge boost if a prominent ride with Noel Fehily onboard was used again and that could be the swing needed in his favour.

[bobbyvalentino]

As mentioned in the handicaps thread I think it’s time we had individual threads for the handicaps to avoid some of the good suggestions being lost amongst each other.

The opening handicap of the week and, unlike most of the other handicaps where everyone is seemingly trying to find the Irish plot horses, this one has been very much dominated by the Brits – in fact, there wasn’t a single Irish-trained runner in the field last year. This should mean there is a little less uncertainty to factor in.

It's clearly been a race where progressive types have thrived – novices and 2nd season chasers. A quick check on Gaultstats backs up this assumption. As you work down the market there seems to be a good number of seasoned chasers who look to have found themselves on lofty marks, the likes of:
Singlefarmpayment - finds himself on a career high mark without having won for 2 years, 6lb higher than when just done by UTPT in 2017 and 3lb higher than when beaten much further in last year’s race. His 2 runs so far this season have been decent but questions remain about his appetite for a battle up the run-in. Weak favourite.
UTPT - could be back for yet another crack. Now 10yo on a career high mark of 158 and only 1 run since winning this in 2017. Entered up on Saturday and if he could drop a few lbs between now and the festival then he’ll no doubt have his followers on the day. Not an AP proposition at this stage though.
O O Seven – well down the field in this last year off the same mark (152) that he currently sits on – has struggled to be competitive from 150+ in the past. Has won at Cheltenham but best results have seemingly come at flatter tracks. Likely to be aimed at the Topham or National and may take this race in along the way but is not one I see as a factor.
Beware The Bear – Another Nicky contender who finds himself on 152 after his win at the course on NYD. Was 4th in the race last year off 150 after being badly outpaced before coming home strongly, but the race was well out of his grasp by that point. Looks all over a marathon type and likely to be caught out again in a competitive and fast run 3 mile festival handicap. Not sure why he was so disappointing in the Scottish National last year but that looks the obvious race for him.
Yala Enki – another who finds himself on a career high mark (156) after a good performance in the Welsh National. A well beaten 6th in this last year off 152 and in this kind of company he needs a bigger stamina test.
Cogry – admirable sort but well beaten in this last year off 4lb lower

There are also a number of horses towards the top of the market who look very unlikely to line up…

Mall Dini – Interesting wherever he turns up but I’d suggest this is one of the unlikelier destinations
Cepage – Having never raced over 3m you’d have to think the Plate is a much more likely destination
Go Conquer – Rooney-owned. Say no more.
The Worlds End – It actually wouldn’t be a huge surprise to see him go here but off 155 he’d likely to be very near top weight and that will be a big challenge for a novice who seemingly blows hot and cold. Not sure a big rough handicap is what he wants.

So, putting a line through all of the above, I’ve tried to pick out a few who I think look likely types:

Talkischeap – my one and only bet in the race so far. I've liked his 2 performances this season against LBAR and Lostintranslation, staying on well on both occasions over intermediate trips. Already a 3m winner over hurdles there's good reason to suspect there will be more improvement to come when stepped up in trip. Alan King has won this race a couple of times in the past, once with a novice (Fork Lightning) and his other winner (Bensalem) also went for this race as a novice when looking the likely winner before falling 2 out - he then came back and won it the following year. I have toyed with the any race markets for this horse but quite frankly this is the race I'd fancy him for so I'm happy to take the bigger price and hopefully have a cash out fallback if he looks to be heading elsewhere.

Give Me A Copper – Interesting horse. Highly regarded by PFN and I had an eye on him with a view to the Hennessy this year but I believe he’s suffered with a number of minor setbacks. He was declared to run at Cheltenham on NYD but was withdrawn due to the ground. There’s a whole heap of potential there and I’m interested to see him in the coming weeks. Having been off for so long I’d imagine his next start will be a cobweb-blower and it’ll be a watching brief for me with a potential view to a race like this. Nicholls handicappers are to be feared at the festival but interestingly Gaultstats make a point of the fact that he doesn’t have a good record in this race. Not sure if there’s anything in that. 20/1 NRNB with Sky is very tempting.

Dingo Dollar – Another for Alan King he’s a progressive 2nd season chaser who ran a really good race in the Hennessy on unsuitably soft ground. He beat Beware The Bear 15L that day off level weights and that horse would now have to give Dingo Dollar 4lb, yet BTB is further up the betting. 14s NRNB is too low but 25/1 with B365 is very fair.

Jerrysback – He’s interesting wherever he goes after winning a shade cosily at Bangor and then finishing his race off nicely when chasing home Vinndication. 25/1 would look a cracking bet if he lined up here but that is far from certain.

White Moon – Jocked up at Warwick at the weekend over 3m and his further target will probably be greatly impacted by what happens there. On his current mark the Close Bros is still in the equation but I think Colin sees him as a 3 miler and should he prove that on Saturday (without winning) then the Ultima becomes a real possibility. If he wins on Saturday then they’ll undoubtedly take the Grade 1 route. 25/1 NRNB is reasonable.

Coo Star Sivola – Well I couldn’t preview this race without mentioning the reigning champion. Back down to a mark just 3lb higher than for winning this last year, albeit that’s because of a few lacklustre displays which you need to forgive. Highly likely to be targeted here again though and I wouldn’t put anyone off the 33/1 with B365.

1 bet so far – Talkischeap 1pt EW 25/1.

Great write up VK. Hadn't even looked in that thread yet so super helpful.

What's your next one?

[Outlaw]

Not that it should matter a great deal but having scrolled through A.kings horses ,having been looking at possible horses he could send here to potentially do the dirty and let Talkischeap tackle a graded assignment at the fez etc. One potential spanner could be that the owner of the firm sponsoring the race has both AZZERTI & CHOSEN PATH with Alan king too, both won around crimbo and on trainer quotes via RP he mentions there is nothing between them and has mentioned the Ultima . You would expect as being the sponsor of the race he will have a runner , Hopefully King sends at least two darts here then or that i am just digging far too deep

[JackieMoon33]

Copied over from the general handicap thread.

11/30/2018
Talkischeap - Ultima Handicap (3m)
Highly tried on debut and similarly on his upcoming second start which is also over an inadequate trip. Jumped well on debut and they could be getting him beaten in better company to preserve his mark for a while. Alan King has tended to aim one at the Ultima every season and this could be the one this year. Novices also have a good record in the race and 3 miles should be perfect.


01/01/2019
This was the first post in the thread and Talkischeap has a mark of 145 and available at 25/1 with Bet365 (only 14/1 with Sky). La Bague Au Roi And Lostintranslation winning means he was beaten by good horses early in the season.

[Viking Flagship]

Not that it should matter a great deal but having scrolled through A.kings horses ,having been looking at possible horses he could send here to potentially do the dirty and let Talkischeap tackle a graded assignment at the fez etc. One potential spanner could be that the owner of the firm sponsoring the race has both AZZERTI & CHOSEN PATH with Alan king too, both won around crimbo and on trainer quotes via RP he mentions there is nothing between them and has mentioned the Ultima . You would expect as being the sponsor of the race he will have a runner , Hopefully King sends at least two darts here then or that i am just digging far too deep

Good digging Outlaw! I couldn't have a horse in this race stepping up to 3m for the first time and if anything they seem to be erring on the side of stepping downwards rather than upwards in trip with Azzerti. Imagine they might be hoping he can get into the Close Bros. Chosen Path however would be of much more interest, he looks progressive, though is only a 6yo which is a concern for this race. Coo Star Sivola did it last year but that was the first time in 24 years.

[Quevega]

Good stuff Viking, and the talkischeap call from Jackie is probably a Fav in the making. So 16-1 is probably still double the value IMO.

Only backed Coo star for this as his mark has slipped nicely and repeat runners in this tend to go well in my memory. Kev mentioned the 45-1 including boost and so I backed it then.

One of my best days was when Bensalem came back the year after falling whilst cantering (just after I'd early high fived some mates, and said 'just needs to jump this second last') it's always a lot sweeter when you get a redemption winner.

A horse I'm not sure has been mentioned and unsure on if it'll run to be fair, but THOMAS CAMPBELL of Henderson seems to be on a winning mark and has messed about in his novice chases this year, he was only 1&1/2 lengths behind talkischeap in the same race on debut, won at Ludlow after beating psychedelic rock (winner since), then came second to a positively ridden Bags Groove. He's since ran in the relkeel hurdle.
Down to a mark of 147 he'll be close to the same mark as Talkischeap for this and his best runs have come at Cheltenham over hurdles and over 3m plus. Not sure he's that well handicapped to be fair, but this race doesn't always have an obvious one.

He's potentially too big a price given he's with henderson. 40-1 bet 365.

edit - just seen 33-1 SkyNRNB so backed it each way

[Viking Flagship]

Some very kind comments about this write up so thanks to everyone for those.

Great write up VK. Hadn't even looked in that thread yet so super helpful.

What's your next one?

Ha! Can't promise anything but as it's gone down well I will try to do a couple more. I really just wanted to get some standalone threads going for the handicaps - there isn't a great deal of substance that can be offered on some of them at this very early stage but with some NRNB knocking around I do think it’s a good time to start paying them a little more attention.

[Outlaw]

Good digging Outlaw! I couldn't have a horse in this race stepping up to 3m for the first time and if anything they seem to be erring on the side of stepping downwards rather than upwards in trip with Azzerti. Imagine they might be hoping he can get into the Close Bros. Chosen Path however would be of much more interest, he looks progressive, though is only a 6yo which is a concern for this race. Coo Star Sivola did it last year but that was the first time in 24 years.

Yeah agree with your response and on paper Talkischeap should be his no1 to send here, wouldn't particularly fancy Chose Path even if he was to come here as of late you need potential graded horses to win a hcap . Hopefully mr King keeps things simple ��

[paz247]

Thanks VF , good work

I’ve backed Theatre Territory for this Nrnb, probably right re Aintree in mind , but I just thought she has Ok course form and being owned by Waley-Cohen, you’d think he’d want to have a runner at the Fest? Downside though, never won a chase

[Muswell]

UTPT entered at Warwick at the weekend

[JackieMoon33]

Thanks VF , good work

I’ve backed Theatre Territory for this Nrnb, probably right re Aintree in mind , but I just thought she has Ok course form and being owned by Waley-Cohen, you’d think he’d want to have a runner at the Fest? Downside though, never won a chase

Theatre Terriory was being targeted at the National at the beginning of the season but that seems a pipe dream now given her current mark.

[doctorwu]

ACTIVIAL - T.GEORGE

Activial has an entry for the Ryanair Chase but I can't see it being competitive in that race off a mark of 146. Im expecting the handicap route for Activial.
Activial has a best RPR over 3 miles which is a big stat for this race. Activial performed with great credit recently at Ascot over 2.5m trying to give Kildistat nearly a stone and failing by a head clawing back all the way to the line.
Activial also has festival form when beaten 2 necks into 3rd in the Coral Cup.

Im not sure this is the target as they may well take in the Brown A instead??

Interesting player if entered.

[evertoncal]

Theatre Terriory was being targeted at the National at the beginning of the season but that seems a pipe dream now given her current mark.

She's got a hole in her and doesn't stay well enough too.