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Long term viewer of this forum what has helped me build my betting bank up in the past year and now I find myself wanting to pick my own winners and learning to do it myself.
How do you guys narrow down the field and come away with a solid bet? What tools do you use?
Difficult question that.
It depends how much time you have.
I spend around 4-6 hours a day watching racing and reading form, and I watch anything I can that could give me something I might have missed.
I use websites like ATR, Racing UK, Sporting Life, Racing Post, Timeform, Oddschecker.
And will view or listen to all racing podcasts available, especially ATR, Racing Post Podcast etc.
I personally don't learn a great deal from all of this, but can generally always learn something of use to help with a bet.
With all this information when looking at a race I will (time permitting) look at each horse and judge which are the likely winners,
The proven ability of the horse is the most important factor.
So is the proven ability of the jockey and trainer.
I will then weigh up the ability of the horse given The race conditions, ie weights, ground, distance, course, recent form, style of racing and many other factors.
I will tend to narrow the selections down to at least a couple, but often much more than that depending on the number of runners declared. As I often do this before prices are available I will consider what I believe to be the odds of the horses selected.
So should I think 4-1 is value for one and 6-1 for my other. When prices come available is when I will decide my betting strategy.
using the 4-1 horse as an example.
Should the 4-1 selection be available at much bigger odds then I would consider increasing my normal bet stake (after checking my facts in case I've missed something).
If it is much lower say 6-4 then I would probably not bet and go back and look at the race again to see if anything is over priced that I may have considered having a chance.
Ultimately most horses in a race have a chance of winning and therefore price is the KEY factor before making a bet.
But determining likely winners before considering price is the way I like to do it, time permitting.
To be fair, a lot of the time I will know the prices first and work backwards from there, using my previous knowledge it's easy to see the prices on offer and spot what looks attractively priced, before delving deeper.
I knew I'd ramble on a bit and it is a question I would have liked to do a thesis on at University, but I didn't go to UNI and the subject probably wasn't on the curriculum, although I bet it is nowadays.
There's loads to it to be honest, and it's difficult to give a succinct answer, but maybe someone else on here can.
I'm not a Pro gambler by any means, but I do spend more time doing this than working, I'm not an all or nothing gambler either, as my sole priority is to maintain my bank and lose money as slowly as possible. I've not had to seriously fund my betting for 7 years now so it's doing ok so far which is surprising as My biggest weakness is discipline and recreational betting on too many (most) races,
Don't use a tool, just from my head really.
Appreciate that's no help, but I prefer to price (guesstimate) the ones I'm interested in rather than the whole field.
Others use tools and they've been mentioned on another thread. handicapping and ratings it's titled I think
Don't use a tool, just from my head really.
Appreciate that's no help, but I prefer to price (guesstimate) the ones I'm interested in rather than the whole field.
Others use tools and they've been mentioned on another thread. handicapping and ratings it's titled I think
How do you guys narrow down the field and come away with a solid bet? What tools do you use?
To try and answer that as simply as I can....
I narrow the field by listening to/reading as many opinions as I can and then compare that to my own opinion - if the price is right I'd place a bet.
The narrowing of the field includes podcasts,TV interviews and pundits, racing websites and replays of form, racecards ..... and then 'my own opinion' which is based on watching these horses in previous seasons etc?
I narrow the field by listening to/reading as many opinions as I can and then compare that to my own opinion - if the price is right I'd place a bet.
The narrowing of the field includes podcasts,TV interviews and pundits, racing websites and replays of form, racecards ..... and then 'my own opinion' which is based on watching these horses in previous seasons etc?
I actaully thought your response was really goodf, was halfway through a much longer one agreeing with a lot of your points and closed the wrong window, so couldn't be bothered to do it again
I think it is good to specialise - Cheltenham antepost and grade one jumping takes up about 75% of my annual bank. Also don’t be afraid to be contrary.
One word information. The more you have the easier it is. On here generally one of us will see something be it an injury ancomment about a target/ground/trip etc.
Regarding narrowing the field, recent form is a big one and past performance. There are 6 things I’ll look at and try and back horses on their ideal conditions.
1 - ground - if I the horse doesn’t go on the ground it’s probably the most likely factor for a bad run.
2 - distance - if a trip is too short or too far it’s not going to suit
3 - course - not just the course but type of course testing or flat or right or left handed
4 - form - a horse out of form is harder to back but if he hasn’t had the 3 above in his favour recently may be worth ago
5 - trainer - winning breeds winning
6 - jockey - a major factor, of the horse is good enough it might be enough but a good pilot is important
I think it is good to specialise - Cheltenham antepost and grade one jumping takes up about 75% of my annual bank. Also don’t be afraid to be contrary.
Good point to be contrary if you like the look of one, I also like to draw a line through horses that I believe can't win, sometimes simpler than trying to narrow a field into potential winners.
Practise ranking and pricing races blind without being influenced by the odds. You will soon get an idea of how accurate you are. A foundation of experience in tissue compiling will help you identify value bets in the future.
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