Christmas Racing 2018

[Garrison Savannah]

Native River (if an intended runner?) is way way way overpriced

[Faugheen_Machine]

Native River (if an intended runner?) is way way way overpriced

His run in the Feltham a few years ago is enough to put me off, as he never really traveled that day. If that was a one off, and not because of track, then 7/1 is too big.

[opatcho]

I've been looking at the King George for a few hours now... all of them have kinks somewhere, but I've also been able to make cases for pretty much each of them aswell

So.. I'm going to keep it simple.

I want a horse that loves it around Kempton, has previous form around here, one that will also love the ground

Politologue & Waiting Patiently - struggling here with those stepping up in trip for the first time. It is looking to be one of the best races of the year, one which will be raced at a true gallop with several potential front runners. I believe Vautour was one of the best middle distance chaser that I have had the pleasure of watching over the last 8 years, and he was hunted down Cue Card in this race. No doubt that either of these two could end up being decent 3 milers, but I just cant have them in this renewal with the latter running here first time out


Native River - It's Kempton, as much as I think he'll put in a good run, this is a speed track on very quick ground for this time of year. Yes, I expect him to come on from his run from Haydock but I think the speed at which they will go on Boxing day will caught him out, causing him to make a few mistakes and then struggle to make up for later on. I'd have NR ahead of Politologue & Waiting Patiently in the betting. A repeat of when he was beaten in the Feltham?.... very possible.

Thistlecrack - past his prime, and has struggled to jump flutey. Believe we saw the best of his current ability last time out. Earlier today I did make a case for Thilstlecrack but at 6/1 to 7/1, that thought was quickly thrown away

Bristol De Mai - I can see at least one of those who finished behind him in the betfair chase coming on and beating them. I do think he is 5-7lbs better around Haydock, so take that away and give 2-3lbs to the others who I think will come on, then you have a swing in the placings. He's a horse I have never got on my side, when ever I've backed it the horse has ran a stinker... you get the story...

Clan Des Obeaux - As much as I love this horse and wanted him to be a G1 horse, he's always going to fall short against the best in the business. I expect him to improve going right handed but is one that would prefer softer ground. Shame.

Tea For Two - Runs well here at Kempton, another horse that prefers to go right handed. Second run after a wind op. If there was going to be a huge surprise then Tea For Two would be it. Personally, I think 8.2 on the exchanges to place would be a decent bet hoping that Tea For Two picks up the pieces latter on in the race

No mentions for the rest.


I've spent some time watching reruns of the King George and reminded myself of what time of horse you want for this. The horse which sticks out from all of the is Might Bite. I've watched his Kauto Star where he fell, and he had destroyed the field. I know that there will be at least 2-3 horse fighting it out at the front to lead this renewal, however I'd love to see Nico line up just behind them and allow Might Bite to run his race. Feels to me that last year they were training the horse to settle in preparation for the Gold Cup, forget that... once Might Bite jumps into the lead after the 3-4 fence... let him go and set a high cruising speed which tests Politologue & Waiting Patiently stamina whilst getting Johnson and co rowing on these dour stayers

I kicked myself in last years Gold Cup for not backing the dour stayer in Native River after watching 3 and a half days of racing in the mud, then I kicked myself for not backing the Haydock specialistic in Bristol De Mai last month.... This is Might Bites track, and it's Might Bites going.

No excuses. He either wins this and shows he is the King around Kempton Park, or I accept that Might Bite is on the downwards

That's me done for this race. Might Bite to win.

[MrMcGoldrick]

Just posted on the weekend racing thread that I've gone with Coneygree, looks huge at 25's, and bigger.

[James Joseph]

Lots of ifs and buts about most of the fancied horses. I am inclined to stick to the recent format lines - Bristol to beat Native with a reverse CSF helping to pay off the January credit card bill. Waiting Patiently and Politilogue are surely too short for horses that have never gone 3 miles. Non stayers do not have a good record in the King George despite it being supposedly being an easy 3 miles. Grade 1 horses will ensure a good pace. Sadly lost confidence in Might Bite - Even a run equal to last year's Boxing Day form would leave it short and you have to be a real optimist to forget that Haydock run. I have watched the race a number of times and can not accept the stiff fences theory as an acceptable excuse for a really poor run. I could well be talking rubbish but I could not be interested at 3-1.

[archie]

Never seen so many say that the KG is a very difficult race but they're going to back 'X'. If ever there was a race to leave alone.....

I hate the KG as a Gold Cup trial. In normal circumstances I'd say Native River keeps beating Might Bite and will do so again but Kempton is a cr@p track so anything could happen.

For all that some of Gordon's best will be out this holiday, Willie never has a no-hoper in the maidens or bumper at Leopardstown on St Stephens.

[Big Bucks]

Never seen so many say that the KG is a very difficult race but they're going to back 'X'. If ever there was a race to leave alone.....

I hate the KG as a Gold Cup trial. In normal circumstances I'd say Native River keeps beating Might Bite and will do so again but Kempton is a cr@p track so anything could happen.

For all that some of Gordon's best will be out this holiday, Willie never has a no-hoper in the maidens or bumper at Leopardstown on St Stephens.

Never seen so many say that the KG is a very difficult race but they're going to back 'X'. If ever there was a race to leave alone.....

I hate the KG as a Gold Cup trial. In normal circumstances I'd say Native River keeps beating Might Bite and will do so again but Kempton is a cr@p track so anything could happen.

For all that some of Gordon's best will be out this holiday, Willie never has a no-hoper in the maidens or bumper at Leopardstown on St Stephens.

Archie, I can see your point, and I agree to an extent it is too hard to call, and the smart move would be too leave it alone. At this stage I would be looking at where the value is at, but with so many negatives with each individual horse if nit picking, anything could win, go well, just as much as anything could go horribly wrong.

But back to the leaving it alone, as I said would be a smart move, and something a "Good" gambler can do, but with it being boxing Day and The King George, arguably one of the biggest betting days of the year, recreational gamblers will have a punt regardless. I dont want to spend all day going through the different types, maybe a debate or opinions for another thread? Hopefully that makes sense (have had a few Christmas Drinks today so forgive the tangent) lol But my point being others will have a bet on the race if its hard to call or not. To throw my fancy in I think Native River is the value bet.

But for winning and better chances, plenty of great cards on offer both sides of the sea. And I will be keeping a closer eye on Irish soil as feel they are still superior in most categories again come March. GE or WM horses especially. Stronger fancys do lie elsewhere than the KG.

Good luck everyone tomorrow and Merry Christmas! Will bore you all some more tomorrow with my selections!

PS: Wasnt having a go at you, and maybe reading into your comment too much about leaving it alone, maybe a bit of jealousy coming out of me that I dont have the skill or will power to do that yet!

[Kevloaf]

If ever there was a race to watch and not have a bet in, it's the Christmas Hurdle, or was the Tingle Creek.

3/1 the field in the highlight of the festive period.... if you crack the puzzle, you get a nice payout.

I imagine that's why people do it... but we aren't all lucky enough to own

[Faugheen_Machine]

If ever there was a race to watch and not have a bet in, it's the Christmas Hurdle, or was the Tingle Creek.

3/1 the field in the highlight of the festive period.... if you crack the puzzle, you get a nice payout.

I imagine that's why people do it... but we aren't all lucky enough to own

Merry Christmas all.

[Kevloaf]

Merry Christmas all.

Haha, Happy Christmas FM.

Good luck this week

[Joleg]

Kempton

1.55 Santini
3.05 Might Bite

Limerick

12.50 Salsaretta
3.45 Larquebuse

Down Royal

1.35 Invincible Cave

Leopardstown

12.40 City Island
2.20 Voix Du Reve

Huntingdon

12.35 Deyrann de Carjac

All to win, GL all

[Hurricane fly]

If Might Bite ends up at 4/1 then I’ll be having a pretty big bet with the insurance of money back e/w

[thorne365]

If Might Bite ends up at 4/1 then I’ll be having a pretty big bet with the insurance of money back e/w

isn't he more a win only proposition?

[Hurricane fly]

I can’t have him out of the top 3 so at 4/1 I can slightly hedge with money back at e/w

[Quevega]

Coneygree and Waiting Patiently both running on today's ground

After all the bollocks both yards have talked,
Nob-ed's.
Hope they both get stuffed.