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  1. #21
    In a nutshell win only for the most part (agree with TR and FM) at least before NRNB, use WH price boosts for any race bets, Bet365 for specific races (cash out) and get your hands on as many free bets as possible as this greatly reduces the risk for small/medium stake punters like myself

  2. #22
    Senior Member Kevloaf's Avatar
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    Loads of good points here.

    I echo the sentiments of taking each bet on merit. Price shouldn't dictate whether you go each way but is a factor.

    I think a flexible approach is key, I'll make a book in some races, back a few 'heavily' on others while only having one selection sometimes and I don'the have any "set rules". Patterns definitely emerge but in my opinion that's through consistently making correct decisions.

    I will take credit for that "dirty each way" on BVD/AJ last year and also for converting jono to backing more than one in a race

    Really good thread, I'll pay more when I can and try and find some similar points made elsewhere that will be relevant
    Last edited by Kevloaf; 11-06-2018 at 11:33 PM.

  3. #23
    Quote Originally Posted by jono View Post
    I've generally always been a Win Only antepost better - as I was very much of the view of not getting stung twice however last year I moved away from this and bet EW a lot more often. And it was by far my best returning festival. I'll generally limit myself to no more than 2 or 3 runners in the same race (I think I broke this last year in both the 4 Miler (5 runners) and the Albert Bartlett (4 runners) and I certainly won't create a book for a race BUT the feeling of getting the winner and placings in behind is a great great feeling on the day.

    I don't have the figures to hand but the each way place returns added up to a decent amount last year and certainly helped make it such a profitable year. I've been lucky to be in profit each year I have done antepost for the festival (5 years) but on some of those years - the difference between profit and loss has come down to one horse so I do feel like it could have easily swung the other way (despite there also being cases where all it took was a neck 2nd etc to return bigger profits)

    So going forward i'll be looking to continue with more EW bets where possible and see if it works out.

    Price is something I am flexible on. I recently added Tornado Flyer for the Ballymore. At face value 25/1 would seem an EW bet for me at 1/4 odds but the fact that his target is still flexible (Mullins, other stablemates who are flexible in trip, yet to jump a hurdle/ run this season) would usually mean I'd go win only. A big difference and 'game changer' for the last year or so though has been the Bet365 cashout which means that doubt can be offset largely.

    Mengli Khan in the Arkle for example makes plenty of sense for me to go EW at 20/1 - as the target is almost all but 'confirmed' (when it comes to antepost) this far out. That's generally my limit when it comes to price though. As soon as a price gets to around the 16/1 price i'll have my reservations in backing eachway, especially if it is 1/5 the odds.

    I'm also now more open to the idea of covering a big fancy in a race this season. Last season I was dead set on both Apple's Jade and Cause of Causes winning. Alongside Buveur D'Air they were my biggest fancies and the most heavily backed in both singles and multiples. I primarily had a or some doubts on both Tiger Roll and Benie des Dieux against them but I did like both and at several stages of the year, including close up to the festival they were each way prices that if I had taken, although they wouldn't have offset the outlay on who I backed, would have been some compensation. So I may look to go down this route this season if the same situation arises.

    I'd also echo the impact this forum has on your strategy. You can have the most robust reason to not back a horse / back a race etc but many times someone on here will make such a good case which makes it impossible to not back! After each year i'll go through the previous festivals and take a look at races where I may look to either avoid antepost, closer to the festival or certainly until NRNB comes into play. The 4 races I highlighted i'd be avoided were:

    Bumper
    Fred Winter
    Triumph
    Albert Bartlett

    But have already broken my stance in 3 of those races in Energumene, Carefully Selected and Adjali
    Like you I've tried to avoid those races and always seem suckered in for some Triumph horses, both Never Adapt and Adjali have drawn me in this year

  4. #24
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    One of the most important things I look for in an Ante Post bet is a clear target. Tornado Flyer is the perfect example of a horse I really really like, but I have no idea where he will go so makes little appeal. I generally try to back horses in races I know they are being campaigned for, or (particularly at this time of year), stick to the 'to win any race' market. All sounds fairly obvious but it works well. I have also cut down significantly on the 'life changing acca's' as there are just to many variables that kill those bets before the festival, despite the fact they are very temping.

  5. #25
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    Each way - All day for me ., When i do my each way singles or multi's , They are hopefully my actual bets for the festival.
    As the season progresses , i might add a new horse here or there . Like a few of us,
    Try to be sure of the target race , But if it's a stonking price , may take a chance.

  6. #26
    Senior Member Istabraq's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by BigChaang View Post
    Each way - All day for me ., When i do my each way singles or multi's , They are hopefully my actual bets for the festival.
    As the season progresses , i might add a new horse here or there . Like a few of us,
    Try to be sure of the target race , But if it's a stonking price , may take a chance.
    It's tough making a case for ante post each way punting unless you are looking at a race that is unlikely to benefit from enhanced place terms on the day.
    The Arkle is now a 5/6/7 runner affair for each way is definitely the way as you get 3 places, but in pretty much every other race there will be a scrum from bookies for your business with the Gold Cup paying 4 places and some of the handicaps paying 6 or even 7 places, unless you have found a market ricket and a horse will be a fraction of their current price there will be better each way value on the day

  7. #27
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    Quote Originally Posted by Istabraq View Post
    It's tough making a case for ante post each way punting unless you are looking at a race that is unlikely to benefit from enhanced place terms on the day.
    The Arkle is now a 5/6/7 runner affair for each way is definitely the way as you get 3 places, but in pretty much every other race there will be a scrum from bookies for your business with the Gold Cup paying 4 places and some of the handicaps paying 6 or even 7 places, unless you have found a market ricket and a horse will be a fraction of their current price there will be better each way value on the day
    Everyone says about the arkle ew and small runner field 6 0r 7 runners. But is it that easy to know the 6 or 7 that will run, therefore doubling your stake on a race that will massively cut up and your ew fancy might not be there.

  8. #28
    Senior Member Istabraq's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Scooby91 View Post
    Everyone says about the arkle ew and small runner field 6 0r 7 runners. But is it that easy to know the 6 or 7 that will run, therefore doubling your stake on a race that will massively cut up and your ew fancy might not be there.
    Of course, nothing is ever easy...

  9. #29
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    This is my approach - Win only, mainly free bets, any race as much as possible.

    Been free bet mining all year (since the day after last years festival).
    Last edited by smor84; 11-13-2018 at 01:26 AM.

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