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Thread: Ryanair 2019

  1. #1
    Top Amateur jono's Avatar
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    Ryanair 2019

    Been a while since i've been able to post...good to be back but pretty shocked there's no thread up yet for THE race on the Thursday of the festival...

    As expected when you get Willie Mullins and Gordon Elliott stable tours out within a day of eachother, some of the others tend to get a little forgotten and I haven't heard too much made from Henry de Bromheads comments, specifically in regards to Monalee:

    I’d say we’ll start him off in the second-season Grade 2 chase at Down Royal on November 3rd. We’ll see how he goes there, but I wouldn’t be against trying him over three miles again. I thought he got the trip in the RSA Chase and in the Albert Bartlett Novices’ Hurdle the year before, he just needs to settle a bit better to give himself the best chance. He got two bad falls last season, but he bounced back from them well and hopefully we’ll get a clear run with him this season.
    Now personally the idea of Monalee round Cheltenham at 2m4 sounds like his absolute ideal for me. He 100% stays 3miles, we have enough evidence of that but I do feel like he isn't an out and out stayers so will most often find one that stays the trip better and importantly it's one thing staying 3 miles, it's another thing staying the 3m2 in the Gold Cup. Add in the fact that he was soundly beaten by Presenting Percy in the RSA over the longer distance.

    I was just pretty taken with HdB's comments on the horse and the trip. "wouldn't be against trying him over three miles" and he just needs to settle better to give himself the best chance" really doesn't scream Gold Cup at all imo. Certainly seems a reluctance there and though I wouldn't be surprised to see them try 3 miles at some stage of the season (personally think the King George is an ideal mid season target for him) it really doesn't sound like the Gold Cup is a race they are aiming towards at the festival this season.

    I remember seeing this tweet last season




    So it would appear the owners have a strong say on where the horse goes (do remember a few mentions about a sizeable bet on the horse for the RSA - just could be hear say so we don't really know whether it was the prestige of the RSA over JLT or other reasons that resulted in that stance)

    He mentions the Down Royal race as a starting point - the 2m3f chase one by the following horses in recent years:

    2017 - Disko (injured)
    2016 - Sub Lieutenant (Ryanair)
    2015 - Ptit Zig (injured)
    2014 - Don Cossack (Ryanair)

    Disko could very well of lined up in the Gold Cup last season (though still think they more than likely would have kept him and Road to Respect apart) but it is generally not a race to start a Gold Cup season on...

    The potential field won't really start taking shape until after the Christmas races so it's not a race I get too involved in early on but Monalee at 16/1 still looks a fair price, even more so after those comments for me.

  2. #2
    Champ Kevloaf's Avatar
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    Welcome back my friend. I hope this isn't another false dawn whgere you say you'll be back and disappear again!

    I do enjoy looking at previous winners of races and where horses start out. It is only ever a really rough guide but it seems like a nice place to start. Certainly agree with Disko, he'd have been interesting but was another I fancied for the JLT and Ryanair too.

    I like horses that can make the running and you know stay further in any intermediate race, but especially chases... and another in the same mould of Monalee (in terms of optimum run style) is Willoughby Court - I think the 25/1 about him is perfectly fair (20s any race)

    My only 'real money' bet on this race so far is Willoughby Court 20/1 1.5 pt win.
    I have Monalee with 1 pt free at 14/1 and 1 pt 16/1 (so 30 pt return)
    and Douvan 3 pts at 10/1 (so 30 pt return)

    Not a race I'll get too carried away with for now, especially as it is far from clear Balko Des Flos will be here. The only horse shorter in the market is Footpad and this is surely not an option for him as if Willie gets his way he'll try the Gold Cup and the owners won't send the Arkle winner to the Ryanair - they're the sporting type!
    Douvan is next in the betting, I obviously think he'd win this I just couldn't take the punt this far out and then we have Min and Un Des Sceaux. You can get 14/1 for both, target not confirmed for Min but it probably is for UDS?

    Mullins said UDS will have the same campaign as last year. He should have been in the CC on that ground last year and I can't back him.... but he did beat Douvan fair and square over 2m after Cheltenham and he's clearly incredibly talented. 14/1 for a horse that was won the Arkle, 2nd in a CC, won a Ryanair and then 2nd - form is 1212 at the Cheltenham Festival! - not bad is it!

    Waiting Paitently and Altior the next two, both unlikely to run for different reasons although I'd make either of them fav probably! Fox Norton (one of the most over rated horses in training) will "almost certainly stick to 2miles" according to Colin Tizzard.

    Al Boum Photo sounds like he's going for Gold, Benie Des Dieux I'd love to run at 16/1 but just not a backable prospect as it's surely more likely she goes for an easier race and to defend the race she won... if she is excelling over fences they'd surely aim her for Gold too before this race... Politilogue doesn't like Cheltenham, Top Notch is 20/1 but disappointed me a little last year and I think they'll try him over further... The Storyteller at 25/1, could he make the step up? Probably but Elliott has mentioned his hurdle mark so that may be a big factor - and then we're down to Willoughby Court who I opened up with so I'll stop.

    So, loads I would fancy but all unlikely to run, a hard race to take a strong ante post position in!

  3. #3
    Not going to quite manage the good write ups you guys have put forward so far, but Monalee, Shattered Love & Douvan are the ones that currently interest me, and indeed I have backed, albeit small level stakes, as always with the Ryanair.

    I was looking at previous JLT winners/placed horses who go on to then win/place in the Ryanair, and I don't think the record is that bad at all.

    For Non Stop - 3rd JLT 2012 - 3rd Ryanair 2013

    Dynaste - 2nd JLT 2013 - 1st Ryanair 2014

    Uxizandre - 2nd JLT 2014 - 1st Ryanair 2015

    Vautour - 1st JLT 2015 - 1st Ryanair 2016

    2016 JLT none of the top 3 ran in the Ryanair the following season.

    2017 JLT none of the top 3 ran in the Ryanair the following season.


    As someone who has doubts that Shattered Love wants 3m, let alone 3m 2f, I think she'd have a cracking chance in this.

    The JLT form of 2018 is looking pretty solid too, Terrefort, Kemboy, Finian's Oscar (RIP) & Big Martre have all come out and won Grded races since. I was and still am a huge fan of hers and pretty much bored you all to death when I kept mentioning her for the RSA, typically I picked the wrong race, but I can see why they went JLT, it just didn't seem that obvious at the time to me, damn! Make up for it this season though, and 16/1 is enough to have me on side.

    I think Balko Des Flos, winner of the race last season and under the same ownership as Shattered Love will be going for Gold myself.

    Douvan is merely a cover bet, as I have him backed for the CC.

  4. #4
    Top Amateur SeanRock's Avatar
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    100% agree with you Jono. I was firmly in the Monalee for the RSA camp last year but he was just outstayed by a horse with more stamina the very same as he was in the Albert Bartlett in 2017. 3m/3m 2f around Cheltenham is a different proposition than anywhere else. Surely the owners just want to get into the winners enclosure next year they must be sick of the bridesmaid tag.

  5. #5
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    I think that you guys are looking at this the wrong way. Monalee was beaten by better horses (on the day) rather than outstayed and I'm fairly confident that you won't find a quote from HdB that says he was outstayed. By applying that logic, you would have to say that he outstayed the likes of Elegant Escape, Augusta Kate and Death Duty except that he didn't. He was just better on the day.

  6. #6
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    Good post Jono , as always !., so far for me , have Monalee , Al boum photo Beniie des dieux ,
    Shattered Love @16-1., Terrefort @20-1,
    and Willoughby court @ 25-1. A.b.p and benie look like maybe going elsewhere
    But i am quite keen on Shattered Love for this race .

  7. #7
    Top Amateur SeanRock's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by archie View Post
    I think that you guys are looking at this the wrong way. Monalee was beaten by better horses (on the day) rather than outstayed and I'm fairly confident that you won't find a quote from HdB that says he was outstayed. By applying that logic, you would have to say that he outstayed the likes of Elegant Escape, Augusta Kate and Death Duty except that he didn't. He was just better on the day.
    Personally think Monalee was outstayed by Presenting Percy in the RSA this year. He passed HdB's horse with relative ease turning for home. That may be partly a result of Monalee racing to freely throughout the race but i just don't see him reversing that form with Percy in the Gold Cup especially over a further 2 furlongs.

    As Jono alluded to it seemed to be Barry Maloney that was pushing for the RSA more so than HdB in the lead up to the festival (possibly due to the sizeable wager he had on). If Monalee was my horse I'd be sending him to the Ryanair this year with the hope of finally getting 1st prize.

  8. #8
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    A proper jigsaw this race. I'd love to see Monalee go down this route and agree with you Jono that 2m4 looks ideal, but I think connections see him as a Gold Cup horse and that's where he will be aimed, regardless of the fact he would stand more chance winning this.

    Looking at the top of the market, I don't think connections of Footpad will send him here. I don't have much faith in an 11 year old Un De Sceax. I think Min will take on Altior again in the QMCC. Waiting Patiently is an absolute weapon and I'd definitely take some 14's were it not for injury troubles. Al Boum Photo would appear Gold Cup bound based on recent comments by WM. That leaves three that interest me (to win any race in brackets):

    Douvan @ 10/1 (8/1)
    Balko Des Flos @ 10/1 (8/1)
    Shattered Love @ 16/1 (10/1)

    Barring injury I can't see Balko Des Flos going anywhere other than here. He went off 8/1 this year and if Willie has Douvan/Min/UDS in the mix, I can see a similar sort of price come February/March, so little appeal to back now.

    I know Shattered Love won a Grade 1 novice chase over 3m at Leopardstown, but I'd have my reservations she'd want 3m 2f. I think this race is absolutely ideal for her and I have taken 16's.

    I have to back Douvan to win any race at 8's. If he gets to Cheltenham he will surely go here or QMCC and wont be anyway near 8/1 in either.

  9. #9
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    The 'if he were mine' road is a cul de sac.

    With Willie it's a cul de sac with rising bollards even if he is yours.
    Last edited by archie; 10-19-2018 at 11:00 AM.

  10. #10
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    As with others, i'd love to see Monalee end up here but with the connections hinting towards the Gold Cup it will be one I will be leaving him alone.

    The one I always come back to running here and the only one I have anything on currently is Willoughby Court. Due out early November before a shot at the Ladbrokes Trophy off a decent mark, I can't see the 25s hanging around for much longer if he puts in anything like. After missing out on the festival last year being fave for a long time, I feel they will want to get him in the winners circle and this looks his ideal trip.

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