Supreme Novice Hurdle 2019

[ComplyOrDie]

Yeah, really good post that Kev, informative and makes complete sense.

I was in a downbeat place when Annamix got pulled last season, so typically me, having to learn the hard way I finally succumbed to not backing the Mullins' hype as much as last year, I have him in a few multiples, but nothing from a single perspective, so it would probably be about right that I missed the boat on this one!

I will probably still not get involved in any single now I have missed the 20's tbh, would rather take shorter still once I have seen him declared. Also, judging by the exchange money, and although it's not a lot in total, you'd have to say this is the target race.

[Scooby91]

You're absolutely right in theory, the issue is that sometimes it's hard to know which is THE hype horse...before I check I'd say it's not as easy as it perhaps seems in hindsight and I suppose betting style comes in to play.

I'll go through my records (any excuse )

2013 - I backed My Tent Or Yours and Dodging Bullets - Champange Fever won which was the 'start' of the Mullins train in this race but I don't think you can claim that was a hype horse. Personally I was only backing 1 or 2 in a race at that time and had a "set" stake per race for every race at the festival. I wasn't backing ante post so don't have any idea what the long-term hype horse would have been, and to be honest there probably wasn't one as there was no reason to believe that Mullins would be dominating like he did? I was aware of the gamble that had taken place in the days leading up to the race (well done Folski). I'd like to think that if I had been punting ante post that year, I'd also have been keen on the bumper winner for Mullins/Walsh ... but who knows But, back to the point - backing the MUllins "hype horse" wasn't invented by this point?

2014 - First year I had any ante post bets for Cheltenham... First Mohican (non runner) and Valsuer Lido for Mullins (10th) for the Supreme at 25/1. I do distinctly remember Vautour being hyped up, but it wasn't just "which Mullins horse is the best, THAT WINS) there was a lot of buzz about Irving being top class for Paul Nicholls who'd had a good record in the race recently. I also remember that Faugheen was much more 'the talking horse' going in to Cheltenham for the Neptune (as you mentioned, he also won impressively) was the one that everyone wanted to be on. Perhaps some very shrewed people had backed Vautour on this, but it only really became a "trend" after he'd won the race I'd say.

2015 - Now many might consider this as the first real big hype job as Mullins had won two in a row and Douvan was different class in any quotes that came out of the yard. Douvan happened to be leg one of the infamous 4-timer that everyone in the world was on. Douvan was "the one" from a long way out. I don't ever remember him being a big price for the race, I know I certainly didn't back him until the day in singles at 2/1 and 6/4. I only backed the "four timer" on 3rd March and that was at 16/1.

2016 - So the 'pattern' is now established, Mullins and Ricci the first place you look... and we did, and it was Min at 50s, then 33s, then he was 12s before you knew it and people that were on we're loving life, and anyone that had been more reserved was saying things like "he's just priced up on Douvan and he certainly ain't Douvan"... and he bumped into the superstar that is Altior. Would I agree this was a good value bet, absolutely.

2017 - Even though Min didn't get the job done, hard to look anywhere but Mullins/Ricci again at this point, so the collective 'we' did. I got my info from this forum that Ricci had TRIED TO BUY Melon but the owner said no, so alarm bells were ringing that THE Mullins horse mnight not be pink. The Ricci buying Melon story was never public so [we] ended up trying to find "the one". Crack Mome, Bunk Off Early, Cilaous Emery, Invitation Only. Fulham Road, Riven Light and IMFAMOUSLY Senewalk... I had backed Melon each way... but I also backed every other one of those horses mentioned! I actually ended up backing all 14 runners so did have Labaik, but unsurprisingly was 14 pts down for the race overall with a whopping 19 pts in non runners and (also 27.5 pts NRNB!). Now it doesn't take a genius to see where I went wrong that year... not knowing which was THE horse was a killer. Hindsight says I should have stuck to my guns about Melon, but it is virtually impossible when the thing isn't running! I couldn't say that was a value bet even if I had stuck to just him could I?

2018 - Did I learn from the mistake in 2017? Kind of... but mostly no! I took the 16/1 NRNB and 10/1 NRNB about Getabird - however, let's back up. Did we know which was THE Mullins horse last season? Absolutely not! Starting at the start it was Annamix. He got ruled out and then Ricci had a few more that got talked up. Sharjah, Epicuris, Antey and Winter Soldier. There was also Sayar and Real Steal. What happened in the race, Getabird was rubbish and Mullins was nowhere.

If I am honest, with all of that said, was Annamix a smart play at 20/1? IS that value? I would have to say it isn't based on the past 5 years. Of course I hope I am wrong, it is better to be lucky than good after all

Iv personally taken a huge punt on him as if he is the one. (I believe he is of riccis) 5pts ew 3 pts win, assuming that he takes the easy route ie min and poss cash out the 3pts win . Mullins said in last year's stable tour that he's a 2 miler, joe chambers has said very simular. And rich said he hopes he's his one for the supreme so I wouldn't be worried about trip. Could be something else in the yard. I have blackbow / dento des obeaux / Allaho, all any race anyway.

[jonthehammer]

Hello all. Good to be back and reading all the great stuff on here.

I noticed Annamix has been cut again to 16s best price now.

[Scooby91]

Hello all. Good to be back and reading all the great stuff on here.

I noticed Annamix has been cut again to 16s best price now.

It's still reasonable I think. The cash out is worth 5 pts on its own , as he's never going to be a huge price and one that rightly or wrongly I'd have thought you can always get out of. Bar injury ofcourse.

[jonthehammer]

Yes my only concern Scooby.
I may take some more 16s


Not sure where Good Boy Bobby will be Aimed at but notice he’s entered for two races on the 18th October

[Adam93]

Yes my only concern Scooby.
I may take some more 16s

Not sure where Good Boy Bobby will be Aimed at but notice he’s entered for two races on the 18th October

Noticed a few others this morning are drifting between 16s and 12s on him now. Like others, managed to get on the last of the 20's with 365 following Riccis quote as my first of the year in this race.

Both of Good Boy Bobby's entries seem to be around 2m and I believe last year it was stated he would be going the 2m route?

Certainly one ill be keeping an eye on following the positivity pre-injury last year!

[jack1092]

There have been quite a few talking horses from the Ricci camp, that haven't fulfilled their hype in recent years....Sympa Des Flos, Francin and Winter Soldier. Even Salsaretta.

I remmeber the first 3 featuring prominent in antepost markets, to then not make it to the track due to a setback, and never quite being as good.

Lets hope its not the same for Annamix.

[BigChaang]

I have done 3 small speculative bets - didtheyleaveyououto @ 33-1, rhinestone @33-1,and blackbow @25-1.
Until the season get's underway ,that'll be it for me .

Less than a day later i have added Bullionaire @25-1 -w.hills.. weak willed ......that's definitely it ..... for now.

[JackieMoon33]

Yes my only concern Scooby.
I may take some more 16s


Not sure where Good Boy Bobby will be Aimed at but notice he’s entered for two races on the 18th October

He was keen in his races last year and he has enough speed for 2m. I think if he’s going to be competitive at a higher grade it will be over further though based on breeding.

[BigChaang]

Good Boy Bobby is trained by Nigel twiston Davies ,
so i'd have thought sooner or later he'll be stepped up in trip ?.

[JackieMoon33]

Good Boy Bobby is trained by Nigel twiston Davies ,
so i'd have thought sooner or later he'll be stepped up in trip ?.

I’d be very surprised if he’s at 2m once he steps into a competitive race. He’s by Flemensfirth out of a Kings Theatre mare so he’s bred for further.

[Kevloaf]

It's still reasonable I think. The cash out is worth 5 pts on its own , as he's never going to be a huge price and one that rightly or wrongly I'd have thought you can always get out of. Bar injury ofcourse.

Yes, this is a good point.

Before I wrote the post I did clarify I had already backed it and a large part of it was because 365 allow some room for error!

As a general rule, 16s is tight for any horse that hasn't had a run yet though scoob. Reasonable in terms of what we've seen from connections perhaps but there are better 16/1 shots in pretty much every other race.

[Scooby91]

Yes, this is a good point.

Before I wrote the post I did clarify I had already backed it and a large part of it was because 365 allow some room for error!

As a general rule, 16s is tight for any horse that hasn't had a run yet though scoob. Reasonable in terms of what we've seen from connections perhaps but there are better 16/1 shots in pretty much every other race.

He's only going to get shorter, and we all know he'll win his maiden hurdle. He's going to be roughly 7/1 id have thought for winning a race at 1/3.

[JackieMoon33]

He's only going to get shorter, and we all know he'll win his maiden hurdle. He's going to be roughly 7/1 id have thought for winning a race at 1/3.

Exactly, the overreaction from just winning a two bob race will halve his price. Ante post value pretty much disappears after one run if they're trained by one of the big yards and wear certain colours.

[Kevloaf]

He's only going to get shorter, and we all know he'll win his maiden hurdle. He's going to be roughly 7/1 id have thought for winning a race at 1/3.

No doubt... but that was the same with Senewalk, Sharjah, Crack Mome and Red Jack for other connections

The fact Ricci had put him as his horse to follow before breaking the news live on ATR that he was out for the season might be the reason he's "kept the faith" and we don't know the horse is back yet...

I completely agree that he'll be shorter when declared, then when he wins and so on... and I am on... I just don't think it's my smartest bet