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  1. #21
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    Just had a bit more on Annamix @ 20/1with 365.Cant see the price staying there much longer

  2. #22
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    I have done 3 small speculative bets - didtheyleaveyououto @ 33-1, rhinestone @33-1,and blackbow @25-1.
    Until the season get's underway ,that'll be it for me .

  3. #23
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    Quote Originally Posted by somer1 View Post
    Just had a bit more on Annamix @ 20/1with 365.Cant see the price staying there much longer
    Just did the same.

  4. #24
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    Quote Originally Posted by Folski View Post
    Just did the same.
    Tempted to go back in after racing today if still have funds in my account

  5. #25
    Quote Originally Posted by Kevloaf View Post
    PP have also trimmed Annamix in the Ballymore market to 20/1 (12/1 now in the Supreme market). It does imply Annamix is back in training.


    With 365 being the only ones remaining at 20/1 and their cashout being available I'm inclined to have a bet at 20/1 now and re-assess after his debut.

    I'm aware this bet is more "Fear of missing out" rather than sensible punting and the Supreme is one of the easiest traps to fall into in terms of hype horses (especially for somebody like myself who likes to create a book for certain races).... but knowing all that, I'm still having 2.5 pts win this morning

    2.5 pts win Annamix Supreme 20/1
    Totally get where you are coming from but I actually think backing Mullins hype horse for the Supreme is sensible betting at around 20/1. Not sure if Champagne Fever was a hype horse but Vautour (1st), Faugheen (1st), Min (2nd) and Melon (2nd) certainly were. I know there were was the odd dud like Senewalk but statistically for me it is a value bet. My issue this year is whether Annamix is actually living off last tear's hype. All we have is Ricci's comments which are something. But there hasn't been any noticeable stable support, the price cut yesterday was due to RR's comments

  6. #26
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    Quote Originally Posted by Rhinestone_Cowboy View Post
    Totally get where you are coming from but I actually think backing Mullins hype horse for the Supreme is sensible betting at around 20/1. Not sure if Champagne Fever was a hype horse but Vautour (1st), Faugheen (1st), Min (2nd) and Melon (2nd) certainly were. I know there were was the odd dud like Senewalk but statistically for me it is a value bet. My issue this year is whether Annamix is actually living off last tear's hype. All we have is Ricci's comments which are something. But there hasn't been any noticeable stable support, the price cut yesterday was due to RR's comments
    I backed Champagne at 14/1 about a week before the festival. Told everyone I knew to back him and was told i was crazy.

    Faugheen was Neptune not Supreme. Agree it's totally a value bet.

  7. #27
    Quote Originally Posted by Folski View Post
    I backed Champagne at 14/1 about a week before the festival. Told everyone I knew to back him and was told i was crazy.

    Faugheen was Neptune not Supreme. Agree it's totally a value bet.
    Cheers Folski, an oversight unbefitting of fatjockey...haha

  8. #28
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    Had a few winners today and was going back to top up Annamix again.BET365 now 16s

  9. #29
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    Quote Originally Posted by Rhinestone_Cowboy View Post
    Totally get where you are coming from but I actually think backing Mullins hype horse for the Supreme is sensible betting at around 20/1. Not sure if Champagne Fever was a hype horse but Vautour (1st), Faugheen (1st), Min (2nd) and Melon (2nd) certainly were. I know there were was the odd dud like Senewalk but statistically for me it is a value bet. My issue this year is whether Annamix is actually living off last tear's hype. All we have is Ricci's comments which are something. But there hasn't been any noticeable stable support, the price cut yesterday was due to RR's comments
    You're absolutely right in theory, the issue is that sometimes it's hard to know which is THE hype horse...before I check I'd say it's not as easy as it perhaps seems in hindsight and I suppose betting style comes in to play.

    I'll go through my records (any excuse )

    2013 - I backed My Tent Or Yours and Dodging Bullets - Champange Fever won which was the 'start' of the Mullins train in this race but I don't think you can claim that was a hype horse. Personally I was only backing 1 or 2 in a race at that time and had a "set" stake per race for every race at the festival. I wasn't backing ante post so don't have any idea what the long-term hype horse would have been, and to be honest there probably wasn't one as there was no reason to believe that Mullins would be dominating like he did? I was aware of the gamble that had taken place in the days leading up to the race (well done Folski). I'd like to think that if I had been punting ante post that year, I'd also have been keen on the bumper winner for Mullins/Walsh ... but who knows But, back to the point - backing the MUllins "hype horse" wasn't invented by this point?

    2014 - First year I had any ante post bets for Cheltenham... First Mohican (non runner) and Valsuer Lido for Mullins (10th) for the Supreme at 25/1. I do distinctly remember Vautour being hyped up, but it wasn't just "which Mullins horse is the best, THAT WINS) there was a lot of buzz about Irving being top class for Paul Nicholls who'd had a good record in the race recently. I also remember that Faugheen was much more 'the talking horse' going in to Cheltenham for the Neptune (as you mentioned, he also won impressively) was the one that everyone wanted to be on. Perhaps some very shrewed people had backed Vautour on this, but it only really became a "trend" after he'd won the race I'd say.

    2015 - Now many might consider this as the first real big hype job as Mullins had won two in a row and Douvan was different class in any quotes that came out of the yard. Douvan happened to be leg one of the infamous 4-timer that everyone in the world was on. Douvan was "the one" from a long way out. I don't ever remember him being a big price for the race, I know I certainly didn't back him until the day in singles at 2/1 and 6/4. I only backed the "four timer" on 3rd March and that was at 16/1.

    2016 - So the 'pattern' is now established, Mullins and Ricci the first place you look... and we did, and it was Min at 50s, then 33s, then he was 12s before you knew it and people that were on we're loving life, and anyone that had been more reserved was saying things like "he's just priced up on Douvan and he certainly ain't Douvan"... and he bumped into the superstar that is Altior. Would I agree this was a good value bet, absolutely.

    2017 - Even though Min didn't get the job done, hard to look anywhere but Mullins/Ricci again at this point, so the collective 'we' did. I got my info from this forum that Ricci had TRIED TO BUY Melon but the owner said no, so alarm bells were ringing that THE Mullins horse mnight not be pink. The Ricci buying Melon story was never public so [we] ended up trying to find "the one". Crack Mome, Bunk Off Early, Cilaous Emery, Invitation Only. Fulham Road, Riven Light and IMFAMOUSLY Senewalk... I had backed Melon each way... but I also backed every other one of those horses mentioned! I actually ended up backing all 14 runners so did have Labaik, but unsurprisingly was 14 pts down for the race overall with a whopping 19 pts in non runners and (also 27.5 pts NRNB!). Now it doesn't take a genius to see where I went wrong that year... not knowing which was THE horse was a killer. Hindsight says I should have stuck to my guns about Melon, but it is virtually impossible when the thing isn't running! I couldn't say that was a value bet even if I had stuck to just him could I?

    2018 - Did I learn from the mistake in 2017? Kind of... but mostly no! I took the 16/1 NRNB and 10/1 NRNB about Getabird - however, let's back up. Did we know which was THE Mullins horse last season? Absolutely not! Starting at the start it was Annamix. He got ruled out and then Ricci had a few more that got talked up. Sharjah, Epicuris, Antey and Winter Soldier. There was also Sayar and Real Steal. What happened in the race, Getabird was rubbish and Mullins was nowhere.

    If I am honest, with all of that said, was Annamix a smart play at 20/1? IS that value? I would have to say it isn't based on the past 5 years. Of course I hope I am wrong, it is better to be lucky than good after all

  10. #30
    Cracking post that Kev and great to have that level of context. I can't help but feel that the search for the hype horse that started after Douvan somewhat distorts the perceived level of value now due to the number of false prophets. I might be a bit overly influenced by Billy Mags source last year who had previously given him only a small number of what would appear justified hype horses (Douvan, Vautour and Min I think, or 2 of the 3) and included Annamix in the same bracket. So for me that 20/1 was good value last year. As indicated above I am less convinced it is as good this year as he has to comeback from injury. Anyway I'm on and hoping we're lucky this year
    Last edited by Rhinestone_Cowboy; 10-14-2018 at 11:36 PM.

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