Page 1 of 292 1231151101 ... LastLast
Results 1 to 10 of 3055

Hybrid View

  1. #1
    3lb Claimer
    Join Date
    Jan 2018
    Posts
    122

    Supreme Novice Hurdle 2019

    Quote Originally Posted by billymag View Post
    Yes the source that gave me Vautour at 33's, Douvan 16's and Min 50's has used the word Machine to me!!! If i had £ for every time Ive heard that word used to describe a horse then I wouldnt need to bet!!!! But to be fair his track record is exceptional so Im well up from his info so decided to chance it that he could be right again, I realise this is all solely on word of mouth and probably not the smartest bet in the World, but going to chance it.
    Stumbled across this post from around this time last year. Anything you can enlighten us with for this year yet billymag? You were talking about Annamix obviously.

  2. #2
    Champ Kevloaf's Avatar
    Join Date
    Aug 2016
    Location
    Nantwich, Cheshire
    Posts
    10,780
    PP have also trimmed Annamix in the Ballymore market to 20/1 (12/1 now in the Supreme market). It does imply Annamix is back in training.


    With 365 being the only ones remaining at 20/1 and their cashout being available I'm inclined to have a bet at 20/1 now and re-assess after his debut.

    I'm aware this bet is more "Fear of missing out" rather than sensible punting and the Supreme is one of the easiest traps to fall into in terms of hype horses (especially for somebody like myself who likes to create a book for certain races).... but knowing all that, I'm still having 2.5 pts win this morning

    2.5 pts win Annamix Supreme 20/1

  3. #3
    Quote Originally Posted by Kevloaf View Post
    PP have also trimmed Annamix in the Ballymore market to 20/1 (12/1 now in the Supreme market). It does imply Annamix is back in training.


    With 365 being the only ones remaining at 20/1 and their cashout being available I'm inclined to have a bet at 20/1 now and re-assess after his debut.

    I'm aware this bet is more "Fear of missing out" rather than sensible punting and the Supreme is one of the easiest traps to fall into in terms of hype horses (especially for somebody like myself who likes to create a book for certain races).... but knowing all that, I'm still having 2.5 pts win this morning

    2.5 pts win Annamix Supreme 20/1
    Totally get where you are coming from but I actually think backing Mullins hype horse for the Supreme is sensible betting at around 20/1. Not sure if Champagne Fever was a hype horse but Vautour (1st), Faugheen (1st), Min (2nd) and Melon (2nd) certainly were. I know there were was the odd dud like Senewalk but statistically for me it is a value bet. My issue this year is whether Annamix is actually living off last tear's hype. All we have is Ricci's comments which are something. But there hasn't been any noticeable stable support, the price cut yesterday was due to RR's comments

  4. #4
    Top Amateur
    Join Date
    Jan 2018
    Posts
    603
    Quote Originally Posted by Rhinestone_Cowboy View Post
    Totally get where you are coming from but I actually think backing Mullins hype horse for the Supreme is sensible betting at around 20/1. Not sure if Champagne Fever was a hype horse but Vautour (1st), Faugheen (1st), Min (2nd) and Melon (2nd) certainly were. I know there were was the odd dud like Senewalk but statistically for me it is a value bet. My issue this year is whether Annamix is actually living off last tear's hype. All we have is Ricci's comments which are something. But there hasn't been any noticeable stable support, the price cut yesterday was due to RR's comments
    I backed Champagne at 14/1 about a week before the festival. Told everyone I knew to back him and was told i was crazy.

    Faugheen was Neptune not Supreme. Agree it's totally a value bet.

  5. #5
    Quote Originally Posted by Folski View Post
    I backed Champagne at 14/1 about a week before the festival. Told everyone I knew to back him and was told i was crazy.

    Faugheen was Neptune not Supreme. Agree it's totally a value bet.
    Cheers Folski, an oversight unbefitting of fatjockey...haha

  6. #6
    Champ Kevloaf's Avatar
    Join Date
    Aug 2016
    Location
    Nantwich, Cheshire
    Posts
    10,780
    Quote Originally Posted by Rhinestone_Cowboy View Post
    Totally get where you are coming from but I actually think backing Mullins hype horse for the Supreme is sensible betting at around 20/1. Not sure if Champagne Fever was a hype horse but Vautour (1st), Faugheen (1st), Min (2nd) and Melon (2nd) certainly were. I know there were was the odd dud like Senewalk but statistically for me it is a value bet. My issue this year is whether Annamix is actually living off last tear's hype. All we have is Ricci's comments which are something. But there hasn't been any noticeable stable support, the price cut yesterday was due to RR's comments
    You're absolutely right in theory, the issue is that sometimes it's hard to know which is THE hype horse...before I check I'd say it's not as easy as it perhaps seems in hindsight and I suppose betting style comes in to play.

    I'll go through my records (any excuse )

    2013 - I backed My Tent Or Yours and Dodging Bullets - Champange Fever won which was the 'start' of the Mullins train in this race but I don't think you can claim that was a hype horse. Personally I was only backing 1 or 2 in a race at that time and had a "set" stake per race for every race at the festival. I wasn't backing ante post so don't have any idea what the long-term hype horse would have been, and to be honest there probably wasn't one as there was no reason to believe that Mullins would be dominating like he did? I was aware of the gamble that had taken place in the days leading up to the race (well done Folski). I'd like to think that if I had been punting ante post that year, I'd also have been keen on the bumper winner for Mullins/Walsh ... but who knows But, back to the point - backing the MUllins "hype horse" wasn't invented by this point?

    2014 - First year I had any ante post bets for Cheltenham... First Mohican (non runner) and Valsuer Lido for Mullins (10th) for the Supreme at 25/1. I do distinctly remember Vautour being hyped up, but it wasn't just "which Mullins horse is the best, THAT WINS) there was a lot of buzz about Irving being top class for Paul Nicholls who'd had a good record in the race recently. I also remember that Faugheen was much more 'the talking horse' going in to Cheltenham for the Neptune (as you mentioned, he also won impressively) was the one that everyone wanted to be on. Perhaps some very shrewed people had backed Vautour on this, but it only really became a "trend" after he'd won the race I'd say.

    2015 - Now many might consider this as the first real big hype job as Mullins had won two in a row and Douvan was different class in any quotes that came out of the yard. Douvan happened to be leg one of the infamous 4-timer that everyone in the world was on. Douvan was "the one" from a long way out. I don't ever remember him being a big price for the race, I know I certainly didn't back him until the day in singles at 2/1 and 6/4. I only backed the "four timer" on 3rd March and that was at 16/1.

    2016 - So the 'pattern' is now established, Mullins and Ricci the first place you look... and we did, and it was Min at 50s, then 33s, then he was 12s before you knew it and people that were on we're loving life, and anyone that had been more reserved was saying things like "he's just priced up on Douvan and he certainly ain't Douvan"... and he bumped into the superstar that is Altior. Would I agree this was a good value bet, absolutely.

    2017 - Even though Min didn't get the job done, hard to look anywhere but Mullins/Ricci again at this point, so the collective 'we' did. I got my info from this forum that Ricci had TRIED TO BUY Melon but the owner said no, so alarm bells were ringing that THE Mullins horse mnight not be pink. The Ricci buying Melon story was never public so [we] ended up trying to find "the one". Crack Mome, Bunk Off Early, Cilaous Emery, Invitation Only. Fulham Road, Riven Light and IMFAMOUSLY Senewalk... I had backed Melon each way... but I also backed every other one of those horses mentioned! I actually ended up backing all 14 runners so did have Labaik, but unsurprisingly was 14 pts down for the race overall with a whopping 19 pts in non runners and (also 27.5 pts NRNB!). Now it doesn't take a genius to see where I went wrong that year... not knowing which was THE horse was a killer. Hindsight says I should have stuck to my guns about Melon, but it is virtually impossible when the thing isn't running! I couldn't say that was a value bet even if I had stuck to just him could I?

    2018 - Did I learn from the mistake in 2017? Kind of... but mostly no! I took the 16/1 NRNB and 10/1 NRNB about Getabird - however, let's back up. Did we know which was THE Mullins horse last season? Absolutely not! Starting at the start it was Annamix. He got ruled out and then Ricci had a few more that got talked up. Sharjah, Epicuris, Antey and Winter Soldier. There was also Sayar and Real Steal. What happened in the race, Getabird was rubbish and Mullins was nowhere.

    If I am honest, with all of that said, was Annamix a smart play at 20/1? IS that value? I would have to say it isn't based on the past 5 years. Of course I hope I am wrong, it is better to be lucky than good after all

  7. #7
    Quote Originally Posted by Kevloaf View Post
    You're absolutely right in theory, the issue is that sometimes it's hard to know which is THE hype horse...before I check I'd say it's not as easy as it perhaps seems in hindsight and I suppose betting style comes in to play.

    I'll go through my records (any excuse )

    2013 - I backed My Tent Or Yours and Dodging Bullets - Champange Fever won which was the 'start' of the Mullins train in this race but I don't think you can claim that was a hype horse. Personally I was only backing 1 or 2 in a race at that time and had a "set" stake per race for every race at the festival. I wasn't backing ante post so don't have any idea what the long-term hype horse would have been, and to be honest there probably wasn't one as there was no reason to believe that Mullins would be dominating like he did? I was aware of the gamble that had taken place in the days leading up to the race (well done Folski). I'd like to think that if I had been punting ante post that year, I'd also have been keen on the bumper winner for Mullins/Walsh ... but who knows But, back to the point - backing the MUllins "hype horse" wasn't invented by this point?

    2014 - First year I had any ante post bets for Cheltenham... First Mohican (non runner) and Valsuer Lido for Mullins (10th) for the Supreme at 25/1. I do distinctly remember Vautour being hyped up, but it wasn't just "which Mullins horse is the best, THAT WINS) there was a lot of buzz about Irving being top class for Paul Nicholls who'd had a good record in the race recently. I also remember that Faugheen was much more 'the talking horse' going in to Cheltenham for the Neptune (as you mentioned, he also won impressively) was the one that everyone wanted to be on. Perhaps some very shrewed people had backed Vautour on this, but it only really became a "trend" after he'd won the race I'd say.

    2015 - Now many might consider this as the first real big hype job as Mullins had won two in a row and Douvan was different class in any quotes that came out of the yard. Douvan happened to be leg one of the infamous 4-timer that everyone in the world was on. Douvan was "the one" from a long way out. I don't ever remember him being a big price for the race, I know I certainly didn't back him until the day in singles at 2/1 and 6/4. I only backed the "four timer" on 3rd March and that was at 16/1.

    2016 - So the 'pattern' is now established, Mullins and Ricci the first place you look... and we did, and it was Min at 50s, then 33s, then he was 12s before you knew it and people that were on we're loving life, and anyone that had been more reserved was saying things like "he's just priced up on Douvan and he certainly ain't Douvan"... and he bumped into the superstar that is Altior. Would I agree this was a good value bet, absolutely.

    2017 - Even though Min didn't get the job done, hard to look anywhere but Mullins/Ricci again at this point, so the collective 'we' did. I got my info from this forum that Ricci had TRIED TO BUY Melon but the owner said no, so alarm bells were ringing that THE Mullins horse mnight not be pink. The Ricci buying Melon story was never public so [we] ended up trying to find "the one". Crack Mome, Bunk Off Early, Cilaous Emery, Invitation Only. Fulham Road, Riven Light and IMFAMOUSLY Senewalk... I had backed Melon each way... but I also backed every other one of those horses mentioned! I actually ended up backing all 14 runners so did have Labaik, but unsurprisingly was 14 pts down for the race overall with a whopping 19 pts in non runners and (also 27.5 pts NRNB!). Now it doesn't take a genius to see where I went wrong that year... not knowing which was THE horse was a killer. Hindsight says I should have stuck to my guns about Melon, but it is virtually impossible when the thing isn't running! I couldn't say that was a value bet even if I had stuck to just him could I?

    2018 - Did I learn from the mistake in 2017? Kind of... but mostly no! I took the 16/1 NRNB and 10/1 NRNB about Getabird - however, let's back up. Did we know which was THE Mullins horse last season? Absolutely not! Starting at the start it was Annamix. He got ruled out and then Ricci had a few more that got talked up. Sharjah, Epicuris, Antey and Winter Soldier. There was also Sayar and Real Steal. What happened in the race, Getabird was rubbish and Mullins was nowhere.

    If I am honest, with all of that said, was Annamix a smart play at 20/1? IS that value? I would have to say it isn't based on the past 5 years. Of course I hope I am wrong, it is better to be lucky than good after all
    Iv personally taken a huge punt on him as if he is the one. (I believe he is of riccis) 5pts ew 3 pts win, assuming that he takes the easy route ie min and poss cash out the 3pts win . Mullins said in last year's stable tour that he's a 2 miler, joe chambers has said very simular. And rich said he hopes he's his one for the supreme so I wouldn't be worried about trip. Could be something else in the yard. I have blackbow / dento des obeaux / Allaho, all any race anyway.

  8. #8
    Top Amateur
    Join Date
    Oct 2017
    Location
    Somerset
    Posts
    409
    Just had a bit more on Annamix @ 20/1with 365.Cant see the price staying there much longer

  9. #9
    Top Amateur
    Join Date
    Jan 2017
    Posts
    1,676
    I have done 3 small speculative bets - didtheyleaveyououto @ 33-1, rhinestone @33-1,and blackbow @25-1.
    Until the season get's underway ,that'll be it for me .

  10. #10
    Top Amateur
    Join Date
    Jan 2017
    Posts
    1,676
    Quote Originally Posted by BigChaang View Post
    I have done 3 small speculative bets - didtheyleaveyououto @ 33-1, rhinestone @33-1,and blackbow @25-1.
    Until the season get's underway ,that'll be it for me .
    Less than a day later i have added Bullionaire @25-1 -w.hills.. weak willed ......that's definitely it ..... for now.

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •