Supreme Novice Hurdle 2019

[Folski]

Think this would be too short myself, thinking along the lines of Ballymore/Albert Bartlett.

Nicholls Canyon route surely? My money on Ballymore.

[Can't Catch Me]

Taking the 7/2 on Thomas Darby for the Supreme Trial on Friday.

Thought it was another nice performance from Elixir de Nutz and TD's form beating him looks very good. The Henderson horse will have to be a bit special to beat TD first time up Id say. Will be hovering over him for the Supreme in case he does!

[Kevloaf]

Felt like having a bit of an inward look at one of my weaker races. This has been a difficult race for me over the last couple of years, as despite backing the winner for the last 2 years, I made a net loss both times!

This is part of what I wrote in my Cheltenham 2018 summary thread under the heading "Your biggest mistakes/ The races/horses you got wrong"

I should NOT be making a book in the race. In fact, I've just looked and because of the injury to If The Cap Fits, I would have done LOADS better if I'd waited for NRNB (or only backed horses NRNB)... I will struggle to stick to that due to my nature but that is certainly a consideration for me next year. I basically ended up with no decent value on any runner in the race that wasn't NRNB, despite firing £978's worth at it!

To summarise, because of non runners, I ended up having to (or at least deciding to) make a book to minimise the 'damage'.


On 1st Jan last season, I'd backed 18 horses for the Supreme for a total stake of 37 pts. (One of the 18 was only a few free bet stakes)

So, where do I sit right now I hear you ask....

Well, I have backed 17 horses - 32 pts staked in total (5 pts less than last year) - which, granted, doesn't sound particualrly promising! however....

5 of the 17 are only backed with "free bets" this season so far and 2 of the 17 I've cashed out on for a net loss of 1 pt

So I have 25 pts over 10 horses, and 4 horses with "free bets". All listed below. (all are each way bar Annamix, Aramon and Raya Time)

1.30 Supreme Novice's Hurdle	Annamix - 2.5 pts		20/1
1.30 Supreme Novice's Hurdle	Battleoverdoyen - 2.5pts		33/1
1.30 Supreme Novice's Hurdle	Quick Grabim 1.5 pts		50/1
1.30 Supreme Novice's Hurdle	Eldorado Allen 3 pts		33/1
1.30 Supreme Novice's Hurdle	Tornado Flyer 5 pts		25/1
1.30 Supreme Novice's Hurdle	Thomas Darby 3 pts		25/1
1.30 Supreme Novice's Hurdle	Seddon 2.5 pts		33/1
1.30 Supreme Novice's Hurdle	Angel's Breath 4 pts		33/1
1.30 Supreme Novice's Hurdle	Aramon 1 pt		65/1
1.30 Supreme Novice's Hurdle	Raya Time - Any - 1 pt		27.63/1
1.30 Supreme Novice's Hurdle	Blackbow		20/1
1.30 Supreme Novice's Hurdle	Mister Fisher		33/1
1.30 Supreme Novice's Hurdle	Royal Rendezvous		33/1
1.30 Supreme Novice's Hurdle	Danny Kirwan		33/1
1.30 Supreme Novice's Hurdle	Felix Desjy	Cashed out	20/1
1.30 Supreme Novice's Hurdle	Commander Of Fleet	Cashed out	25/1
1.30 Supreme Novice's Hurdle	Hollowgraphic	Non Runner	25/1

Battleoverdoyen, Quick Grabim, Eldorado Allen, Tornado Flyer, Thomas Darby, Seddon, Angels Breath are all with 365, and I expect a few to end up in the Ballymore, so will be looking to use cashout when NRNB kicks in potentially. OR I'll see how things go.
I'm trying to lay Aramon at 50.0 but no luck yet, don't think it'll be running here anymore.
Raya Time any race I've given up on for now but you never know.

Open to some constructive critisim here, and interested to see how others look at this point for this specific race.

[Quevega]

KEV - I'd try and be a bit more selective in general.

One slight negative about this forum is there's a danger that however much you justify a bet in your own mind and try and use your own thoughts on it. Which I'd like to think most would do.
You potentially let the 'missing out' factor sway you more than you realise.
Almost like not joining the Lottery syndicate at work.

I'm not saying you do this - per say.
But it is something I personally have to watch myself for. So I assume others have the same thoughts, whether they admit it or indeed realise it.

Using and playing the Cashback facility is another matter altogether and whilst that's risky as B365 can change it at any minute. I can see the edge with this and how this would increase dart throwing a little bit more than the norm.

[Innoko]

KEV - I'd try and be a bit more selective in general.

One slight negative about this forum is there's a danger that however much you justify a bet in your own mind and try and use your own thoughts on it. Which I'd like to think most would do.
You potentially let the 'missing out' factor sway you more than you realise.
Almost like not joining the Lottery syndicate at work.

I'm not saying you do this - per say.
But it is something I personally have to watch myself for. So I assume others have the same thoughts, whether they admit it or indeed realise it.

Using and playing the Cashback facility is another matter altogether and whilst that's risky as B365 can change it at any minute. I can see the edge with this and how this would increase dart throwing a little bit more than the norm.

I think this is an excellent point. In reality, if you listened to everyone then you could have every single horse backed at some stage.

Very important to take your own view at times and stick to your own strategy.

As I've stated earlier in a post, larger stake less horses for me nowadays.

[boopa]

Exactly. We all have access to the same data and video. You need to reach a point where you trust your own judgement and bet accordingly.

[Kevloaf]

I very much do stick to my own strategy. I'm just very open and don't mind showing how its evolving as I get better and better year on year.

The point you make quevega is perfectly valid and is always on my mind! I've been a lot more selective this season, with higher stakes on fewer horses overall too, as Innoko says.

For this race in particular I'd rather try and beat the odds while 365 are doing what they're doing. In all likelihood I'll cash out Tornado Flyer, Thomas Darby, Battleoverdoyen and Angels Breath for no losses.

I think it perhaps looks more scatter gun than it is...

And I do always back my own judgement, bar the French form for Juveniles ... but whilst I agree everyone has access to the same information, reading well constructed cases on here, by tipsters, by pundits is ALL part of forming your 'own' opinion. I watch replays on mute to avoid being influenced by commentators where I can too.

I've made plenty of cases for horses on this forum so I know(or at least hope) that comment about backing my own judgement isn't aimed at me ... I could very easily post one liners picking holes in others bets without having my open approach but I like to think we can all learn together

[Innoko]

I very much do stick to my own strategy. I'm just very open and don't mind showing how its evolving as I get better and better year on year.

The point you make quevega is perfectly valid and is always on my mind! I've been a lot more selective this season, with higher stakes on fewer horses overall too, as Innoko says.

For this race in particular I'd rather try and beat the odds while 365 are doing what they're doing. In all likelihood I'll cash out Tornado Flyer, Thomas Darby, Battleoverdoyen and Angels Breath for no losses.

I think it perhaps looks more scatter gun than it is...

And I do always back my own judgement, bar the French form for Juveniles ... but whilst I agree everyone has access to the same information, reading well constructed cases on here, by tipsters, by pundits is ALL part of forming your 'own' opinion. I watch replays on mute to avoid being influenced by commentators where I can too.

I've made plenty of cases for horses on this forum so I know(or at least hope) that comment about backing my own judgement isn't aimed at me ... I could very easily post one liners picking holes in others bets without having my open approach but I like to think we can all learn together

Just to clarify, my post wasn't directed at you Kev, just an observation in general.

[Quevega]

I very much do stick to my own strategy. I'm just very open and don't mind showing how its evolving as I get better and better year on year.

The point you make quevega is perfectly valid and is always on my mind! I've been a lot more selective this season, with higher stakes on fewer horses overall too, as Innoko says.

For this race in particular I'd rather try and beat the odds while 365 are doing what they're doing. In all likelihood I'll cash out Tornado Flyer, Thomas Darby, Battleoverdoyen and Angels Breath for no losses.

I think it perhaps looks more scatter gun than it is...

And I do always back my own judgement, bar the French form for Juveniles ... but whilst I agree everyone has access to the same information, reading well constructed cases on here, by tipsters, by pundits is ALL part of forming your 'own' opinion. I watch replays on mute to avoid being influenced by commentators where I can too.

I've made plenty of cases for horses on this forum so I know(or at least hope) that comment about backing my own judgement isn't aimed at me ... I could very easily post one liners picking holes in others bets without having my open approach but I like to think we can all learn together

spot on that.

I once had a discussion with a mate about information and knowledge in general.

I'd mentioned to him a couple of horses that he subsequently heard mentioned by racing post tipsters, So he was saying that I'd just nicked my ideas from them, even though I proved to him (not sure I needed too but he was annoying me) that I'd mentioned to him way before the article or podcast was published.

I then asked him to think hard about where he gets his ideas and thoughts from and strongly suggested that they don't just pop up in his fucking head from nowhere.
That's why most humans watch, read, listen, learn, digest and apply.

I mean, we wouldn't know there was a God without the Bible and adults telling us whilst we're young children who don;t know better, would we

[boopa]

It works for you so why change it. Filtering the plethora of opinions to form my own opinion would drive me insane I couldn't bet like that personally.

[Quevega]

It works for you so why change it. Filtering the plethora of opinions to form my own opinion would drive me insane I couldn't bet like that personally.

It's insane not to do that.

[boopa]

There's more than one way to a skin a cat. I bet my own opinion. I have been doing it for a living for 4-years now.

[Quevega]

There's more than one way to a skin a cat. I bet my own opinion. I have been doing it for a living for 4-years now.

I bet based on my own opinion also, but it's definitely based to a certain degree on other peoples opinions, which includes pundits, trainers, jockeys, ratings compilers, clerks of the course, weathermen, Handicappers, etc.

Which was my point.
If you don't use these other opinions Boopa, even to a small degree, then I'd say you're insane, or GOD

[Kevloaf]

The bookmakers traders, or betfair's SPs could be classed as other people's opinions.

To ignore those before making a bet is impossible, as even if you don't know the price beforehand, you'd only make the bet based on their opinion being wrong.

[Quevega]

The bookmakers traders, or betfair's SPs could be classed as other people's opinions.

To ignore those before making a bet is impossible, as even if you don't know the price beforehand, you'd only make the bet based on their opinion being wrong.

knew I'd missed someone off