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Supreme Novice Hurdle 2019

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  • Originally posted by Kevloaf View Post
    But his NRNB price wouldn't be bigger?

    If something does 'come out' we'll know soon enough?

    no his price over the next 24 hours could be, in line with PP at 25s. by then we would be in negative cashout. If anything was announced in the time before nrnb id be kicking myself.
    The NRNB price I don't expect to yield much of a profit for myself (I was on at 20s), i'd expect the shortest it goes would be 16s and therefore I wouldn't be nicking much profit.
    would rather be out now and assess later.

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    • Annamix looks like he'll follow the list of Ricci hype horses that fail to run the year they are meant to, and don't live up to the hype the year after.

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      • Not many positives to take from the Annamix run. Another Mullins hype horse and the bookies must be loving them. Put them in the betting shorter than they should and people will still back them.

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        • Originally posted by Faugheen_Machine View Post
          Not many positives to take from the Annamix run. Another Mullins hype horse and the bookies must be loving them. Put them in the betting shorter than they should and people will still back them.
          Maybe I should say Ricci, rather than Mullins.

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          • So just tied up my two antepost bets for the Supreme, which happens to cover off me if we get spring ground or (more likely given winter hasnt really hit us yet) another wet and testing festival.

            I wasn't impressed with the Irish last year, and I'm not impressed with them this time around. I think Quick Grabim is the best of the bunch but I feel he needs the race to be setup for him, which he will struggle to do in march.

            I jumped onto Angel Breath at 25/1 before he won his first, and I am happy with this selection if we have a wet festival. This bet actual goes against my trends and pedigree analysis for this race, but oh well! I'm on, and he's likely to shorten up again.

            Yeah, I know it's easy to come out with a big ticket when everything else has been bumped out, whilst your's has shortened, but I really do think this is the horse to beat if the going is soft or worse in March.

            I promise I'm not being lazy, but the other horse I like happened to run into second place against Angels Breath - I've taken 64/1 on Danny Kirwan. Good ground, in a truly ran race is the key for this horse. I dont think he needs to go down the Neptune route, the supreme will be right up his street. More importantly, he's been added to the tracker for next season as he looks like he could be a useful stayer. Pedigree it spot on for this, and think he would come on leaps and bounds

            Yes, people will be shouting that he should down the Neptune route, I think otherwise. Supreme all the way

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            • I've re-watched the Annamix race a few times in hope of finding excuses and ultimately I can't find any of note, not from the performance itself, however I have a few things in the back of my mind that could excuse such a run/holding off on a cash out:

              First run in over 800 days against some match fit rivals

              Last seasons Supreme winner lost his first 3 starts before winning the race

              Mullins had a below par Christmas IMO (not for the first time either, to then come good at the festival)

              Don't really have much else to offer, but have only cashed out a few multi's whereby Annamix is not the only one that has run below par.

              I do find it odd, and I know the level of race will make a difference, but Annamix trebled in price with some bookmakers upon defeat, but horses you've had the likes of Buveur D'air and Kalashnikov pushed out very slightly in comparison and then Santini cut for a 3 1/2 length defeat, and Lalor cut for sitting in his box despite a 11 3/4 length defeat by the same horse Kalashnikov only got beat 1 1/4 lengths by.

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              • Originally posted by charlie View Post
                Quick Grabim. Aramon. Tornado Flyer. In that order.
                OR..... 20-1,50-1, 16-1 in that order

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                • Originally posted by ComplyOrDie View Post
                  I've re-watched the Annamix race a few times in hope of finding excuses and ultimately I can't find any of note, not from the performance itself, however I have a few things in the back of my mind that could excuse such a run/holding off on a cash out:

                  First run in over 800 days against some match fit rivals

                  Last seasons Supreme winner lost his first 3 starts before winning the race

                  Mullins had a below par Christmas IMO (not for the first time either, to then come good at the festival)

                  Don't really have much else to offer, but have only cashed out a few multi's whereby Annamix is not the only one that has run below par.

                  I do find it odd, and I know the level of race will make a difference, but Annamix trebled in price with some bookmakers upon defeat, but horses you've had the likes of Buveur D'air and Kalashnikov pushed out very slightly in comparison and then Santini cut for a 3 1/2 length defeat, and Lalor cut for sitting in his box despite a 11 3/4 length defeat by the same horse Kalashnikov only got beat 1 1/4 lengths by.
                  He wants a trip imo. I'll give him a chance over 2 1/2 before I cash the ballymore. Already cashed the supreme for money back.
                  https://scooby91horseracingtips.com/
                  Use code "FJ" in your sign up name for bonus content!

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                  • Originally posted by ComplyOrDie View Post
                    .
                    I do find it odd, and I know the level of race will make a difference, but Annamix trebled in price with some bookmakers upon defeat, but horses you've had the likes of Buveur D'air and Kalashnikov pushed out very slightly in comparison and then Santini cut for a 3 1/2 length defeat, and Lalor cut for sitting in his box despite a 11 3/4 length defeat by the same horse Kalashnikov only got beat 1 1/4 lengths by.
                    We have a fair idea how good those horse are though CoD. Annamix was priced on hype alone and it is easy for them to push him right out. Let's face it, if he wasn't a Ricci/Mullins horse no one would be suggesting he's the Supreme winner after that run.

                    I'm not trying to aftertime as I'd had a nibble at the 20/1 but I can't see how he turns into a festival winner after today.

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                    • Originally posted by Faugheen_Machine View Post
                      We have a fair idea how good those horse are though CoD. Annamix was priced on hype alone and it is easy for them to push him right out. Let's face it, if he wasn't a Ricci/Mullins horse no one would be suggesting he's the Supreme winner after that run.

                      I'm not trying to aftertime as I'd had a nibble at the 20/1 but I can't see how he turns into a festival winner after today.
                      Buveur D'air, yeah, but the other 3 are 'novice' chasers, so what they can achieve over fences is still very up in the air, especially as they have all now been beat. That defeat could be first time out, like Annamix or second time out like the others mentioned. Defi Du Seuil is a prime example, he got hammered by Lalor on chase debut, but now finds himself joint favourite for the JLT, after 1 win next time out. A horse is only ever as good as it's last run, and on that basis, I agree, Annamix was all 'hype' but the game isn't over just yet, though he now has more to prove than ever.

                      'IF' Annamix wins next time out, what price does he go?
                      Last edited by ComplyOrDie; 28 December 2018, 07:28 PM.

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                      • Would any one back Press Conference to win this race ? Then why back Annamix on that running he needs to find over a stone, Willie is good but this horse needs a miracle.

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                        • Originally posted by Chris View Post
                          Would any one back Press Conference to win this race ? Then why back Annamix on that running he needs to find over a stone, Willie is good but this horse needs a miracle.
                          800 days off, Mullin's seeming to have left it late to bring him out, and when he has he has ran well below expectations (hype) and well below what is needed to win a supreme.

                          I agree, he'd have to improve by some way to win a supreme after that today

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                          • Originally posted by ComplyOrDie View Post
                            Buveur D'air, yeah, but the other 3 are 'novice' chasers, so what they can achieve over fences is still very up in the air, especially as they have all now been beat. That defeat could be first time out, like Annamix or second time out like the others mentioned. Defi Du Seuil is a prime example, he got hammered by Lalor on chase debut, but now finds himself joint favourite for the JLT, after 1 win next time out. A horse is only ever as good as it's last run, and on that basis, I agree, Annamix was all 'hype' but the game isn't over just yet, though he now has more to prove than ever.
                            Annamix hasn't proved anything yet though so that's why they can easily push him out. The novice chasers you listed have the residual class because they were all graded horses over hurdles, it's just if they transform that ability to fences. It's much more risky for the bookies to over react and treble their odds after defeat.

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                            • Originally posted by Faugheen_Machine View Post
                              Annamix hasn't proved anything yet though so that's why they can easily push him out. The novice chasers you listed have the residual class because they were all graded horses over hurdles, it's just if they transform that ability to fences. It's much more risky for the bookies to over react and treble their odds after defeat.
                              Yeah, fair point.

                              I guess I was looking at it from a wider spectrum, but ultimately he does have a lot to prove.

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                              • Originally posted by ComplyOrDie

                                'IF' Annamix wins next time out, what price does he go?
                                It will interesting to see where they go, if he won you would have assumed the Moscow Flyer. Melon won a maiden in late January could possibly look for one in that area date wise

                                I’ve seen people compare him to Senewalk which is absolute tosh.

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