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  1. #11
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    Quote Originally Posted by Faugheen_Machine View Post
    and mine MoM
    Are you on any race FM? I have a couple of units for Bally more but gradually been converting my hedge towards any race

  2. #12
    Quote Originally Posted by Faugheen_Machine View Post
    I'd like to think that no one on here is backing CoF purely because of what Samcro did last season.

    The positive I read into it is that Gigginstown will likely target the Ballymore again with their best novice, given that they've suffered a couple of high profile defeats in the AB in the last few years with No More Heroes and Death Duty.
    Yeah, I'd hope so too, but I'm not putting it out of the question, that's all. I think many of us at some point would have backed a Mullins Supreme horse 'blind' so no reason why CoF would be any different, given connections strong performance in the race last season.

    Agree, think best novice will go for the Ballymore and he is one I have on side anyway, but as I said previously, my main hope for the race is Hollowgraphic, with the argument for him made as per my original post on this thread

    What with the previously mentioned horses by HF this race could turn out to be a cracker, fingers crossed they all turn up fit and well.

  3. #13
    Quote Originally Posted by thistlecracker View Post
    Are you on any race FM? I have a couple of units for Bally more but gradually been converting my hedge towards any race
    I'm all in on the Ballymore for CoF. I don't see him as an AB horse but I suppose he could be a supreme horse if he makes the grade.

  4. #14
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    Someone on the monday night review podcast who is part of an owners group with horses with Elliott. Last year he had an early bet on Samcro any race and this year hes had an early bet on Commander Of Fleet any race.

  5. #15
    Quote Originally Posted by Faugheen_Machine View Post
    I'm all in on the Ballymore for CoF. I don't see him as an AB horse but I suppose he could be a supreme horse if he makes the grade.
    66% of stakes on Betfair for COF have been for the Ballymore tbf, so you may well be right. If it takes as long as the Samcro decision to be made and he performs on the track it is a traders dream.

  6. #16
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    Quote Originally Posted by ComplyOrDie View Post
    66% of stakes on Betfair for COF have been for the Ballymore tbf, so you may well be right. If it takes as long as the Samcro decision to be made and he performs on the track it is a traders dream.
    Where did you get them stats on regarding the 66% ? Would be interesting to see the stats on other races too

  7. #17
    Quote Originally Posted by thistlecracker View Post
    Where did you get them stats on regarding the 66% ? Would be interesting to see the stats on other races too
    They were worked out by myself, only on the stakes shown as matched on Betfair, Ballymore currently £1324 and Supreme £664. Think it works out at 66.599% to be exact

  8. #18
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    Backed Pym 45/1 1 pt win tonight for this race.

  9. #19
    Champ Kevloaf's Avatar
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    I am tempted to back Acey Milan at 33/1 for this race.

    4th in the Champion Bumper that Mullins had the 1st,2nd,3rd,5th,7th - with Gordon Elliott having the 6th.

    That makes me want to upgrade how good Acey Milan actually is, because Mullins/Elliott are almost unstoppable. THe issue is, that in this race, he's almost certainly going to be up against the same two trainers who have something for the race... and they are unstoppable still!

    CoF seems to already be there for Elliott and take your pick for Mullins. I noticed today that Tornado Flyer is the highest rated bumper horse on RPR's that Mullins has had in the last 5 years! I think we can tend to over-egg the bumper horses but the 'fact' is that even if it isn't Tornado Flyer, you'd expect at least one of them to progress to the top flight over hurdles and then even if thery ALL FLOP, he'll no doubt have some novice hurdlers that didn't take the bumper route...

    I've backed Pym tonight, and I do want to back Acey Milan.... but Mullins or Elliott win this race don't they? ?

    I wonder if anyone will offer evens that Mullins or Elliott win the Ballymore

  10. #20
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    Quote Originally Posted by Kevloaf View Post
    I am tempted to back Acey Milan at 33/1 for this race.

    4th in the Champion Bumper that Mullins had the 1st,2nd,3rd,5th,7th - with Gordon Elliott having the 6th.

    That makes me want to upgrade how good Acey Milan actually is, because Mullins/Elliott are almost unstoppable. THe issue is, that in this race, he's almost certainly going to be up against the same two trainers who have something for the race... and they are unstoppable still!

    CoF seems to already be there for Elliott and take your pick for Mullins. I noticed today that Tornado Flyer is the highest rated bumper horse on RPR's that Mullins has had in the last 5 years! I think we can tend to over-egg the bumper horses but the 'fact' is that even if it isn't Tornado Flyer, you'd expect at least one of them to progress to the top flight over hurdles and then even if thery ALL FLOP, he'll no doubt have some novice hurdlers that didn't take the bumper route...

    I've backed Pym tonight, and I do want to back Acey Milan.... but Mullins or Elliott win this race don't they? ?

    I wonder if anyone will offer evens that Mullins or Elliott win the Ballymore
    Based on all the potentially exciting horses coming through this season, I think the Ballymore could be the destination for most of them and could prove to be a very competitive renewal. The Fame And Glory (Commander Of Fleet and Sebastopol) progeny I fully expect to end up here and not in the Supreme. Tornado Flyer looks to have the right blend of speed and stamina and as he's by Flemensfirth, it's highly unlikely he'll be going for the Supreme either. Danny Kirwan could have an easy season with chasing in mind but if he goes to the festival, I'd see him running here. I believe Olly Murphy has stated Brewinupastorm will need further than 2 miles so you can throw him into the mix. Of the other Mullins horses I can't get a handle on what Hollowgraphic or Blackbows trips will be and Carefully Selected looks an Albert Bartlett horse. Another outside dark horse could be Downtown Getaway for Nicky Henderson and he's very interesting wherever he goes this season (no mention in the stable tour though).

    All in all this will be a very competitive race in the same way as the RSA will be for the Novice chases (all the talented Novice chasers seem to be stayers bar Samcro)

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