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Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe 2018

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  • Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe 2018

    Had to use google to check which capital letters are needed where!

    One of the best flat races of the season next weekend. I'll probably miss it for the first time in as far back as I can remember but here are my positions/thoughts.

    1.5 pts e/w on Sea of Class at 12/1
    2 pts win on Enable at 5/1
    2 pts on Enable and Altior - Champion Chase at 15.5/1

    Sea of Class was sensational in my opinion, she's still not been hit with the stick and I hope James Doyle continues his fine record in big races and produces on the big stage again. I can't envisage any way she isn't last off the bridle when I look at the field.

    I was quite happy not being with Cracksman, I hope they get punished for not striking whilst the iron was hot last year, when bang in form and had the weight allowance. Absolutely no way he's a better horse this year than he was last year so very easy to oppose. The only positive would be if the ground got heavy and Frankie jumped off Enable (jockey booking not confirmed I don't think he won't be getting off the reigning champ)

    Enable sets the standard, she's an absolute superstar and before her re-apperance I was trying to be realistic and cautious that she may not get back to her best... but I caved before she ran, and wasn't disappointed. Gosden keeps getting things right and I think she'll be 100% on the day.... if she is, she'll be leading with 1f to go after Frankie has said go and I'd be gobsmacked if anything bar Sea of Class was good enough to get by her. Sea of Class may not get by her and she's a short priced fav now for a reason.

    Waldgeist is 3rd fav - I did like his run in the trial and Fabre has alwasy held in in high regard, but best price 9/1 isn't big enough for me to back to win - as I'd be very disappointed if a horse with 7 defeats from 13 runs was better than Enable or Sea of Class. (In fairness he's racked up 4 wins in a row - perhaps if I was having a fresh look at the race with nmo ante-post bets I could see him as an interesting each way angle... but for me this isn't an each way race... as the top 2 look rock solid, so there is only 1 spot up for grabs!)

    St Leger winner Kew Gardens is 16/1 which is alright. I can see why people would like his chances. Aidan has had Leger runners place in the race previously and some people (incorrectly) thought La Ti Dar was better than Sea of Class so may rate this form quite strongly. For me The Leger brought out the best in Kew Gardens and I expect him to be staying on but not good enough to win the race.... over 1m4f before the Leger he was beaten by Old Persian and Cross Counter who aren't good enough to get near placing in a Leger so I think Kew Gardens price is based on horses like Order of St George rather than how suited he actually is to the race.

    Andy Holding has tipped Crystal Ocean at 8/1 1 pt e/w and he's better than me at this horse racing stuff - and the horse is now available at 20/1 which might be big because he wasn't fully tuned up against Enable at Kepton either... although it is hard to make a case for him reversing the form now in my opinion.

    Study of Man and Kitesurf both won on the same card as Waldgeist a couple of weeks back. Soft ground seems to be a requirement for Kitesurf (so I heard anyway) and Study of Man will flat some boats but I thought Waldgeist was the best of the French challenge so not too concerned with these two.

    Forever Together is interesting on closer inspection. If the ground is soft (like for the Oaks) then is she a big price at 25/1? Sea Of Class beat her a neck (albeit she had plenty in hand) but strictly on the form, soft ground could bring them closer together - she certainly would enter my mind of Soft ground - I'm half tempted to add her at 28/1 with Ladb on a bit of a flyer that she gets her ground - what do people think?

    Stradivarius surely doesn't run? Talismanic not good enough, Shahnaza (Frank Hickey's long term ante post selection) flopped earlier in the season and Brundtland I know very little about... La Ti Dar quoted but surely doesn't run either... probably a whole host of others at wild prices that I haven't mentioned and we'll have a Danedream (who is in foal to Frankel )

    Best of luck with whatever you back!

  • #2
    I love Enable but feel like Sea of Class is the one this year given the weight allowance and likely ground. She oozed class at York, doing it effortlessly, and given that Enable has had a troubled season, I'd take her at the prices.

    Liverpool v Man City afterwards..... This might be and afternoon at the pub

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    • #3
      I would love Sea of Class to do it, I might add her with Altior I might spend her place money on it

      When is the draw?

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      • #4
        Not sure Kev. SoC still needs to be supplemented but I think that is Tuesday

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        • #5
          Pretty boring from a price perspective, but a race I have done extremely well in the past 5 seasons and this time around I don't see Enable beaten tbh.

          I don't think the draw will have too much bearing on the race either, Golden Horn was written off by many because of this but he stuffed them with a cracking ride from the most successful jockey in the race, who is on Enable's back again.
          Last edited by ComplyOrDie; 1 October 2018, 08:52 AM.

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          • #6
            Not sure who to back but on a note of admin, it’s surely only a matter of time before they review the age/sex allowances.
            The race has been doninated by 3yo and 3yo fillies at that.
            I remember when 5yo used to get an allowance of 8/10lb for the Arkle and the race became inundated with french breds who were much more physically advanced than Ire/UK bred horses, that got reviewed and I think they now only get a pound...

            Comment


            • #7
              Originally posted by Istabraq View Post
              Not sure who to back but on a note of admin, it’s surely only a matter of time before they review the age/sex allowances.
              The race has been doninated by 3yo and 3yo fillies at that.
              I remember when 5yo used to get an allowance of 8/10lb for the Arkle and the race became inundated with french breds who were much more physically advanced than Ire/UK bred horses, that got reviewed and I think they now only get a pound...
              Yep, It takes an exceptional four year old and/or a weakish renewal to beat the three year olds these days, and this year we have a bit of both, it looks between enable and sea of class but the potential for improvement and weight allowance added to the difference in price means Sea of Class is a solid enough bet, the ground looks like coming up fair enough for everyone, it's probably only a bad draw and then getting too far back as a hold up horse that might be the problem for SoC and James doyle.
              Looks like a good pace will be set if O'brien thinks Kew Gardens is his best chance.
              I've backed SoC and Kew Gardens as price gone for enable before I got round to staking.

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              • #8
                Originally posted by quevega View Post
                Yep, It takes an exceptional four year old and/or a weakish renewal to beat the three year olds these days, and this year we have a bit of both, it looks between enable and sea of class but the potential for improvement and weight allowance added to the difference in price means Sea of Class is a solid enough bet, the ground looks like coming up fair enough for everyone, it's probably only a bad draw and then getting too far back as a hold up horse that might be the problem for SoC and James doyle.
                Looks like a good pace will be set if O'brien thinks Kew Gardens is his best chance.
                I've backed SoC and Kew Gardens as price gone for enable before I got round to staking.
                I prefer to praise the winner rather than downgrade the race as 'weakish' as I don't think you would be giving the eventual 4 year old the credit they deserve tbh.

                Treve won back to back Arc's and I think Enable does the same, before being retired IMO. She is on another level to the rest, the multiple form lines using Coronet as a guide pretty much sums this up for me.

                Comment


                • #9
                  The draw has been made an Enable has a great stall, coming out of 6. Most of the others at the head of the betting have been given a wide draw, including Sea of Class in stall 15.

                  The one that looks massively over priced to me is Capri at 40/1. If he can bounce back to the form of his Leger win, which is rock solid,he'd be right in the mix for this. I can see him running a screamer, similar to Order of St George did on a couple of occasions.

                  1.5pt ew Capri. 40/1.
                  Last edited by Faugheen_Machine; 4 October 2018, 10:46 AM.

                  Comment


                  • #10
                    Originally posted by Faugheen_Machine View Post
                    The draw has been made an Enable has a great stall, coming out of 6. Most of the others at the head of the betting have been given a wide draw, including Sea of Class in stall 15.

                    The one that looks massively over priced to me is Capri at 40/1. If he can bounce back to the form of his Leger win, which is rock solid,he'd be right in the mix for this. I can see him running a screamer, similar to Order of St George did on a couple of occasions.

                    1.5pt ew Capri. 40/1.
                    Does not look like you are alone FM, 25's best price with the main bookmakers, though one Mickey Mouse company still go 33's!

                    Good luck mate But come on Enable

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                    • #11
                      Originally posted by ComplyOrDie View Post
                      Does not look like you are alone FM, 25's best price with the main bookmakers, though one Mickey Mouse company still go 33's!

                      Good luck mate But come on Enable
                      If Ryan Moore takes the ride he'll be more like a 10/1 shot.

                      *Just noticed that Donnacha has got the leg up.
                      Last edited by Faugheen_Machine; 4 October 2018, 04:23 PM.

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                      • #12
                        There's a cutaway this year so draw maybe not as much of a problem. And can't see Capri myself.

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                        • #13
                          Originally posted by quevega View Post
                          There's a cutaway this year so draw maybe not as much of a problem. And can't see Capri myself.
                          He's a 40/1 shot so there are going to be a few negatives.

                          The St Leger he won last season is the best I can remember. Crystal Ocean, Stradivarius, Rekindling, Coronet, Count Octave and Defoe all in behind.

                          He didn't fire at Chantilly last season but that was only two weeks after the Leger so I can easily excuse that run.

                          He came out and won a group 3 at the start of the season, giving the field 5lb. AOB always leaves plenty to work on with his horses so out is fair to assume he would have improved for that run (and he'd have to improve to be considered for this). He missed a few months and I'm hoping the last run was just too blow the cobwebs away.

                          As I say there are plenty of negatives but he's a huge price and there is one piece of form that says he shouldn't be 40/1, and certainty shouldn't be that much bigger than this season's St Leger winner.

                          All that said, Sea of Class still wins

                          Comment


                          • #14
                            The race has a handful of big priced horses that could go well if they produce their best performance, I just think there are others that are more likely.
                            But Good luck, and 40-1 is a fair price each way for sure.
                            Not sure on cutaway now as sporting life podcast seem to suggest they are gonna remove it for the arc. I've seen the cutaway at longchamp this year and it reminded me of kempton, and Weaver said on ATR today that the cut away will be used, But not sure now.

                            Comment


                            • #15
                              I thought it wasn't going to be used but may have misheard.

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