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Queen Mother Champion Chase 2019

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  • #31
    Does anyone think the fact the owners have Sceau Royal for this, will mean they'll send Footpad over further. I personally think they'll go for the Ryanair with him, but it's certainly hard to call when Willie has 3 or 4 that could swap between this and the Ryanair. If its soft again come March could Un De Sceaux not be dropped back to this as well?

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    • #32
      Originally posted by taylorch1990 View Post
      Does anyone think the fact the owners have Sceau Royal for this, will mean they'll send Footpad over further. I personally think they'll go for the Ryanair with him, but it's certainly hard to call when Willie has 3 or 4 that could swap between this and the Ryanair. If its soft again come March could Un De Sceaux not be dropped back to this as well?
      They were happy enough to let Footpad and Sceau Royal run against each other in the Arkle so on its own I don't think either will affect each others target

      Comment


      • #33
        Originally posted by jonthehammer View Post
        Cadmium cut yesterday to 25s from 40s. My mate has a part share in this (SHR club) and would just be happy to bowl along and get home safe as he doesn’t think he will trouble the major players. I’ll keep you posted on any change but This is his target.

        Comment


        • #34
          Right, we're on page 4 and nobody has mentioned the QMCC winner yet.

          Saint Calvados 50/1 is a joke of a price.

          His form was impressive and progressive last year, for me he's the best 2 mile chaser in the UK.

          If (and this won't be an if that gets past everybody) you put a line through the Arkle run, which I would say is perfectly acceptable to-do, as Petit Mouchoir and Saint Calvados clearly both lit eachother up through the race at various times, then he's a wild price for this race isn't he?

          His price contracted to 11/4 2nd fav in the Arkle due to the ground... it's a shame he didn't run his race. The ground not "likely" to be soft is a concern, but he's 50/1 - and it might be soft again. (And the trainer was happy enough to let him go for the Arkle on better ground too)

          The main problem is that Altior won't be beaten on merit by him, and for all that he didn't give his running, I can't see him beating Footpad on merit either ... but, he is 50/1.

          Footpad might not run and Altior is 7/4 and I am not going to run scared of one horse this far out.

          Altior was only 24 hours away from missing the race last year, and if anything did happen to him, every horse will likely half in price over night.



          Saint Calvados was a wild price for the Arkle at 100/1 and even though it didn't pay out, I think he's been under-estimated again for this season.

          You don't need many positives to back a horse at 50/1 in my opinion either... I'd fancy him against literally every other UK based 2 miler in the country bar Altior and let's be honest, if he won the Champion Chase and I hadn't backed him I'd never forgive myself.


          50/1 e/w Saint Calvados

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          • #35
            Where is he likely to run beforehand Kev? Tingle Creek or possibly the 2 mile chaser at Cheltenham November meeting?

            I'd like to see him run at Cheltenham in November, just to rule out that he needs a flat track to be at his best.

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            • #36
              If you think Saint Calvados is overpriced at 50-1 then isn't Petit Mouchoir also overpriced at 33-1. Like has been mentioned both SC and PM took each other on in the arkle but PM ran a much better race for longer and was unlucky to be pipped to 2nd. I can forgive him the 2 runs after Cheltenham because of the hard race he had. Also just seen Min is 25-1 with PP/BF might be a sign that he's not going to be aimed here. But his second in this last year is still a great piece of form and 25-1 is too big imo.

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              • #37
                Saint Calvados reminds me of the English football team....

                Cruises through the qualifiers, then absolutely bottles it on the big stage

                Sorry Kev
                Last edited by Gilly; 23 October 2018, 07:43 PM.

                Comment


                • #38
                  What I would say about saint calvados to is that hes still only 5 yrs old and has only had 8 races under rules, give this it would be likely theres still more improvement to come from him

                  Comment


                  • #39
                    Originally posted by taylorch1990 View Post
                    If you think Saint Calvados is overpriced at 50-1 then isn't Petit Mouchoir also overpriced at 33-1. Like has been mentioned both SC and PM took each other on in the arkle but PM ran a much better race for longer and was unlucky to be pipped to 2nd. I can forgive him the 2 runs after Cheltenham because of the hard race he had. Also just seen Min is 25-1 with PP/BF might be a sign that he's not going to be aimed here. But his second in this last year is still a great piece of form and 25-1 is too big imo.
                    Perhaps.... but there is 17 pts between 50s and 33s, and for me Petit Mouchoir is more exposed, less likely to improve and likely to go up in trip.

                    I'd have SC at 50/1 over PM at 33/1 at this stage.

                    Comment


                    • #40
                      Originally posted by Kevloaf View Post
                      Perhaps.... but there is 17 pts between 50s and 33s, and for me Petit Mouchoir is more exposed, less likely to improve and likely to go up in trip.

                      I'd have SC at 50/1 over PM at 33/1 at this stage.
                      Don't you think they might go up in trip with Saint Calvados ? I reckon it could improve for it.
                      And I doubt trainer would run it on good ground if either footpad or altior still lining up. However 50-1 is well worth taking a chance.

                      Comment


                      • #41
                        Originally posted by Faugheen_Machine View Post
                        Where is he likely to run beforehand Kev? Tingle Creek or possibly the 2 mile chaser at Cheltenham November meeting?

                        I'd like to see him run at Cheltenham in November, just to rule out that he needs a flat track to be at his best.
                        I'd be shocked if they don't go for the Tingle Creek with SC. I think connections will realise the division (well Altior and Footpad) are up against and have the TC as his season target, where the ground will suit, less chance of meeting Footpad and the best possible chance of giving Altior a race where he may be at his most vulnerable. I get the impression Cheltenham and the CC isn't the draw for them and the horse as it is for some.

                        I reckon SC could open up a very reasonable EW price for when the Tingle Creek market opens

                        Comment


                        • #42
                          Originally posted by jono View Post
                          I'd be shocked if they don't go for the Tingle Creek with SC. I think connections will realise the division (well Altior and Footpad) are up against and have the TC as his season target, where the ground will suit, less chance of meeting Footpad and the best possible chance of giving Altior a race where he may be at his most vulnerable. I get the impression Cheltenham and the CC isn't the draw for them and the horse as it is for some.

                          I reckon SC could open up a very reasonable EW price for when the Tingle Creek market opens
                          just read article which says trainer favouring staying at 2 miles, but is set to run over further in haldon gold cup before going to tingle creek.

                          Comment


                          • #43
                            Originally posted by Gilly View Post
                            Saint Calvados reminds me of the English football team....

                            Cruises through the qualifiers, then absolutely bottles it on the big stage

                            Sorry Kev
                            He reminds me of Leicester

                            Comment


                            • #44
                              Originally posted by Faugheen_Machine View Post
                              Where is he likely to run beforehand Kev? Tingle Creek or possibly the 2 mile chaser at Cheltenham November meeting?

                              I'd like to see him run at Cheltenham in November, just to rule out that he needs a flat track to be at his best.
                              I omitted any track concerns as it's easy enough to pick holes in a 50/1 shot beaten 50 odd lengths haha.

                              I would like to see it, but think they'll be more interested winning where they can than aiming at the Champion Chase specifically.

                              I hope he runs well enough over the winter to merit a run on the day ... he's not worse than Dodging Bullets haha

                              Comment


                              • #45
                                Originally posted by quevega View Post
                                Don't you think they might go up in trip with Saint Calvados ? I reckon it could improve for it.
                                And I doubt trainer would run it on good ground if either footpad or altior still lining up. However 50-1 is well worth taking a chance.
                                I don't think he'll run on good ground between now and Cheltenham so we won't have any proof he doesn't like good ground ... so I still think he'd run, although he might be no where near good enough by March.

                                His won in the Kingmaker was brilliant I thought, and I do think he's better than Sceau Royal and Brain Power.

                                Is easy to knock a 50/1 shot and if he was 33/1 I wouldn't have backed him at this stage.

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