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  1. #11
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    Quote Originally Posted by Kevloaf View Post
    Yes, I absolutely meant the Melling.

    I've not even opened the rum yet either.... what nonsense will I be spouting in a few hours if I am making school boy errors like this now
    'Altior to beat Footpad'?

  2. #12
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    Regarding Footpad I've been a bit hesitant about getting too excited about him, but I was looking at 6 year olds who have run well in the Arkle, I think my cut off was 10L off the winner to be included. I went back 10 years I think but the results were staggering, the average improvement was 15.75lb from final novice rating to the highest rating achieved during the season after.

    Horse Pos Race Rating Pos Race H.R.
    Sommersby 2 Arkle 156 3 QMCC 170 14
    Riverside Theatre 5 Arkle 154 1 Ryanair 170 16
    Sprinter Sacre 1 Arkle 169 1 QMCC 188 19
    Cue Card 2 Arkle 155 1 Ryanair 170 15
    Western War Horse 1 Arkle 161 N/A N/A N/A N/A
    Dodging Bullets 4 Arkle 156 1 QMCC 171 15
    Douvan 1 Arkle 169 7 QMCC 174 5
    Sizing John 2 Arkle 150 1 Gold Cup 168 18
    Fox Norton 3 Arkle 145 2 QMCC 169 24

  3. #13
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    This is the race im most looking forward to Altior V Footpad having a ding dong battle to the finish.For me its Footpad by a head but its gunna be a close call.

  4. #14
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    Quote Originally Posted by somer1 View Post
    This is the race im most looking forward to Altior V Footpad having a ding dong battle to the finish.For me its Footpad by a head but its gunna be a close call.
    Altior powers by as they go up the hill

  5. #15
    Quote Originally Posted by somer1 View Post
    This is the race im most looking forward to Altior V Footpad having a ding dong battle to the finish.For me its Footpad by a head but its gunna be a close call.
    I think the only way it’s a close call is if Ruby sends Footpad off early and sets a blistering gallop and Altior has 10 lengths to make up as they come up the hill.

    Even then I would still fancy Altior up the hill.

    I really hope the racing world builds it up as a head to head. We might get some 4/5 Altior on the day if Footpad goes unbeaten until March. In which case, I’ll be having a lump on Altior.

    I think he’s one of the best 2m ever. Right up there with Sprinter.

  6. #16
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    I would say one of the two will change trips this year in an attempt to avoid eachother..

    Obviously no idea which!

  7. #17
    I can't see Altior changing trips, and tbh IF Footpad isn't as good as Douvan (Willie will know) then he may step up, but I can't see Douvan not running in this either, as I don't see him as anything other than a 2 miler.

    Ultimately, Douvan has been incredibly unlucky in this race so far, I think from this years running we can see he wasn't 100% the previous year, whether you believed the original diagnosis or not. He was a different animal this time around when unfortunately falling.

    Douvan is better than Min (despite my best efforts not to believe this ) and for that reason I think Min will also step up in trip.

    Douvan doesn't seem to be spoken of as much now Footpad is on the scene, yet Douvan could be better than Footpad at home, I don't get the price discrepancy between the 2 at this moment in time, aside from the potential Footpad has, he is still plenty short enough right now IMO.

  8. #18
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    Quote Originally Posted by ComplyOrDie View Post
    I can't see Altior changing trips, and tbh IF Footpad isn't as good as Douvan (Willie will know) then he may step up, but I can't see Douvan not running in this either, as I don't see him as anything other than a 2 miler.

    Ultimately, Douvan has been incredibly unlucky in this race so far, I think from this years running we can see he wasn't 100% the previous year, whether you believed the original diagnosis or not. He was a different animal this time around when unfortunately falling.

    Douvan is better than Min (despite my best efforts not to believe this ) and for that reason I think Min will also step up in trip.

    Douvan doesn't seem to be spoken of as much now Footpad is on the scene, yet Douvan could be better than Footpad at home, I don't get the price discrepancy between the 2 at this moment in time, aside from the potential Footpad has, he is still plenty short enough right now IMO.

    Was thinking about this over the weekend, and agree with everything you've said.

    Thanks for saving me ten minutes tapping away, and putting them across better than I likely would have

  9. #19
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    The difference with Footpad and Douvan is that the owner picks the face for the former, and that isn't the case in the latter.

    If Munir/Suede want Footpad in the Champion Chase, he'll be in the Champion Chase. I feel like their switch of him to be aimed at the Aintree Festival despite knowing full well Willie wanted Footpad to run in Ireland to help win him the Trainers Title was a very large statement and unfortunately he didn't make either.

    The fact he didn't make it just goes to show you should strike while the iron is hot, and in my opinion if Footpad is fit that week in March, he'll be taking on Altior rather than avoiding him. (Also, Altior won't be avoiding anything, he's the Champion Chaser).

    That way Ricci can still have a runner, and Ruby will be on the one with the best chance. That wouldn't be Min.

  10. #20
    Quote Originally Posted by Kevloaf View Post
    The difference with Footpad and Douvan is that the owner picks the face for the former, and that isn't the case in the latter.

    If Munir/Suede want Footpad in the Champion Chase, he'll be in the Champion Chase. I feel like their switch of him to be aimed at the Aintree Festival despite knowing full well Willie wanted Footpad to run in Ireland to help win him the Trainers Title was a very large statement and unfortunately he didn't make either.

    The fact he didn't make it just goes to show you should strike while the iron is hot, and in my opinion if Footpad is fit that week in March, he'll be taking on Altior rather than avoiding him. (Also, Altior won't be avoiding anything, he's the Champion Chaser).

    That way Ricci can still have a runner, and Ruby will be on the one with the best chance. That wouldn't be Min.
    I agree, I think both Footpad & Douvan end up in this race, which is why the price discrepancy has me perplexed.

    Footpad has done nothing Douvan hasn't already done.

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